2025 MLB Rookie Of The Year Odds, Picks, Predictions: Bet On This AL ROY Longshot
Spring training is well underway, meaning teams are getting a look at some promising rookies for the 2025 MLB season. As betting on MLB odds ramps up, so will interest in futures like MLB MVP odds. Today, we'll look at MLB Rookie of the Year candidates, specifically AL ROY odds.
Which players enter 2025 as the favorites, and might there be value further down the board?
AL ROY Odds
Yankees OF Jasson Dominguez enters as the favorite. The thickly muscled slugger has sipped on some big-league coffee each of the past two seasons, but not so much that he exhausted rookie eligibility.
Dominguez seemingly checks a lot of boxes. He has the pedigree (No. 16 prospect, according to FanGraphs). He's shown he can perform at the MLB level, with an above-average batting line (109 wRC+) across 100 PAs. And he should have the opportunity to rack up counting stats — RosterResource projects him as New York's starting LF.
Elsewhere with single-digit odds, we see two Boston Red Sox: 2B Kristian Campbell and OF Roman Anthony.
I'm bullish on Boston's AL East odds, but I'm skeptical we'll see much of these guys. Both have established veterans ahead of them in one of the AL's deepest lineups, yet either or both could deliver substantial results if the team decides to be aggressive. Both are among the top 10 or so prospects in MLB. Respected prospect analysts Keith Law and Eric Longenhagen have Anthony No. 1 (non-Japanese import division).
Finally, Detroit SP Jackson Jobe rounds out the group. A former No. 3 overall pick out of high school, Jobe has developed nicely. However, he has yet to crush it in the high minors (4.20 xFIP in AA).
The Tigers also have a crowded rotation, though the bottom of it is in flux. Alex Cobb looks set to start the season on the IL, Casey Mize has yet to live up to his No. 1 overall pick pedigree, and Kenta Maeda looked like he was on his last legs in 2024. If Jobe has early success, Detroit will likely elevate him.
Can Kumar ROck(ER) His Rookie Season?
To some degree, it's understandable why bettors find those guys at the top of the board. However, I've zeroed in on Texas SP Kumar Rocker as a live longshot in AL Rookie of the Year odds.
Rocker's journey to this point hasn't exactly been smooth. Once considered a No. 1 pick candidate, he dealt with mechanical issues, velocity fluctuations, and injuries.
Finally, though, he began to make good on his talent in 2024. He fired 36.2 very high-quality minor-league innings (1.96 ERA, 2.04 xFIP), then had a three-start cup of joe. There, he posted the following relevant metrics:
- 3.17 xERA
- 51.5% ground balls
- 65.5% first strikes
- 13.3% swinging strikes
That would certainly play if he can manage it over a lengthier campaign.
Therein lies the rub. After throwing shy of 50 innings, how much volume can we expect from Rocker?
Mo's Bet: Rocker AL ROY Odds (+2000)
I'm not sure, but I think it's at least possible Rocker will pitch past 100 innings. Just last year, we saw Garrett Crochet pitch a full season after just 25 innings the year before. The White Sox shortened his starts late in the year, but he still threw 146 IP. So we at least know it's possible.
Rocker does have a couple of positive indicators that point to the possibility of a decent workload.
First, he's not some 22-year-old future ace like Jobe, whom the team will want to protect. Entering his age-25 season, it's time for Rocker to help the major-league club. Based on his pedigree and experience, he looks ready to do so. The projections agree, forecasting a ~3.80 ERA and ~2 fWAR.
Second, Rocker looks likely to be one of the top three arms on the team. RosterResource currently projects him outside the rotation as the next man up, but he's probably better than at least one of Jon Gray and/or Tyler Mahle. Jacob deGrom's availability will always be a huge question mark. Cody Bradford looks solid but unexciting.
A Texas team expected to be in the thick of divisional contention can ill-afford to let a talent like Rocker languish in Triple-A for long.
I like a wager on Rocker in AL Rookie of the Year odds for these reasons. I took +2000 at DraftKings. Currently, the best price available is Kumar Rocker +20000 on DraftKings. Best of luck to us if you tail this bet!
watch: MLB rookie of the year betting preview
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