MLB Today’s Best Bets: Home Run Picks and Top Player Props on October 7th
Written By Blaise Bourgeois | Last Updated at October 7, 2025
After a head-turning Sunday twin bill, we move on to a pivotal ALDS Game 3 slate, and all eyes will be watching. American League MVP favorite Aaron Judge and the New York Yankees are on the brink of elimination after falling in a 2-0 hole against the rival Toronto Blue Jays. While the Yankees have already won two win-or-go-home games this series, beating the Blue Jays three straight times will be a much more difficult task (+400 on FanDuel).
On the other side of the bracket, the Mariners are back even with the Tigers in large part to Jorge Polanco’s monster game at the plate, going 3-for-4 and taking likely back-to-back AL Cy Young winner Tarik Skubal deep twice. The shock win will certainly have the Tigers fans roaring but which Jack Flaherty will show up tonight?
We've pored through the data and are thrilled to dish out what we believe are the MLB's best bets at the best odds. Today, we'll list our favorite home run props, best player props, and give you a couple of home run props to consider.
Toronto Blue Jays @ New York Yankees
- Home Run Pick: Aaron Judge (+190 via FanDuel)
- Home Run Pick #2: George Springer (+454 via DraftKings)
- Home Run Parlay: Springer, Judge (+1300 via DraftKings)
- Player Prop Pick: Aaron Judge 3+ hits (+1000 via FanDuel/DraftKings)
- Best Bet: Aaron Judge HR, o7.5 runs, Yankees win (+525 via DraftKings)
New Customers: Bet $5+ Get $300 in Bonus Bets If Your Bet Wins + 3 Months of League Pass On Us! Aaron Judge has a blistering statline this postseason, going 8-for-18 (.444) in 2025 after a pretty awful postseason career outside of 2018. There is one major thing missing from his performances though: extra-base hits.
Judge has four two-hit showings in five games against Boston and Toronto this October, but he only has seven singles, a double, and two walks to show for it. While his 1.024 OPS is absolutely nothing to sneeze at, Yankees fans are yearning for more production from their centerpiece.
The Yankees captain needs to deliver a memorable performance tonight, and I'm picking him to deliver tonight with their backs against the wall at Yankee Stadium. While he's 0-for-7 with two walks in his career against Shane Bieber, that's far too small a sample size to seriously take into consideration.
In the other dugout, the Blue Jays are looking to sweep the Yankees to finish off a long battle between the two AL East foes. It would be the ultimate way to close out the Bronx Bombers after dominating them all season. The Jays won 8 of their 13 regular-season matchups this season, the tiebreaker that won them the division crown and a first-round bye.
George Springer is one of just six players to ever hit 20 or more postseason home runs after going yard in Sunday's blowout. Some players are just built for the postseason, and the 35-year-old Springer is one of them. In what could be one of his last playoff runs, Springer is going to make it count and try to improve on his legacy.
Seattle Mariners @ Detroit Tigers
- Home Run Pick: Cal Raleigh (+217 via DraftKings)
- Player Prop Pick: Raleigh, Jorge Polanco 5+ total bases (+3600 via DraftKings)
- Home Run Parlay: Raleigh, Polanco (+1600 via DraftKings)
- Best Bet: Seattle win, o7.5 runs, Raleigh 5+ total bases (+800 via DraftKings)
The postseason always has at least one unlikely hero, and based on Sunday's performance, Jorge Polanco looks like he could be the one this October. Hitting a home run off a likely back-to-back Cy Young winner is difficult enough, but doing it twice in the postseason is simply incredible. Look for him and the rest of the Mariners bats to keep the momentum going in Game 3.
After a riveting Game 2 where all the stars came out to play, the Mariners are poised to keep rolling, even with the series moving to Detroit. Seattle's ace Logan Gilbert takes the hill tonight against Jack Flaherty, who has been all over the place and is not coming into the postseason in great form. Though Flaherty did have a very respectable outing against Cleveland to kickstart his playoff campaign, the bullpen is likely to be heavily relied upon tonight. Flaherty, who went 8-15 with a 4.64 ERA this season, only pitched into the 7th inning three times in 2025 and hasn't pitched six full innings in any of his last seven outings.
I think this game has big potential to be a blowout in Seattle's favor, attacking Flaherty early and forcing the 17th-ranked bullpen in baseball to work extended duty. In that case, expect the big bullpen arms to rest and be saved for games 4 and 5.
Cal Raleigh is on fire, starting the season 4-for-9 with the clutch double in Game 2. The long ball is due any day now, and there's a pretty good chance that he'll launch one out of the park tonight.
Mandatory Photo Credit: ID: 313232936 by Roxana Gonzalez on Shutterstock
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