2024 Missouri Valley Tournament Betting Odds: Will Belmont Upset Indiana State, Drake?

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Written By Eli Hershkovich | Last Updated March 6, 2024

The 2024 Missouri Valley men’s basketball tournament begins on Thursday. The postseason event involves 12 contestants. There’s a slim chance the league earns an at-large bid for March Madness odds, but it will presumably only send the tournament victor. Let’s dive into the most pertinent information for Missouri Valley tournament odds. Remember that Indiana State — the betting favorite — won’t play until Friday.

Click any of the following odds to bet on sites with the best sportsbook promo codes. The table below displays the latest Missouri Valley tournament odds.

2024 Missouri valley Tournament Odds

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arch madness betting tips

At the top of the betting board, Indiana State and defending champion Drake boast their fair share of offensive firepower. However, both have sizeable concerns ahead of the Missouri Valley tournament — otherwise known as Arch Madness.

Despite the Sycamores’ first-place finish, their second-leading scorer Isaiah Swope is playing through multiple knee injuries. Swope will reportedly undergo surgery after the campaign, but he’s expected to continue to suit up in St. Louis. The 5-foot-10 two-guard generated a 25.6% 3-point clip (7-of-27 shooting) in the final four games of the regular season.

Conversely, the Bulldogs’ defense has fallen off from last season’s top-10 finish. Since Feb. 3, their adjusted defensive efficiency (AdjD) barely sits inside the top-130 range. Tucker DeVries is closing in on another MVC Player of the Year award, yet their slip-ups at the other end make them a tad overvalued.

Longshot Worth Considering

Enter Belmont, which owns the third-highest ranking in Haslametrics’ momentum metric. That’s because the Bruins have won seven of their last eight games, coinciding with the return of sophomore point guard Ja’Kobi Gillespie. For context, Gillespie missed eight contests at the beginning of league play with a wrist injury, causing his team to slide back in the standings.

Hence, the Bruins peaking at the ideal time. They also hoist up a top-60 perimeter scoring rate thanks to their five-out attack. The formula is perfect for a conference tournament longshot, given how many high-variance scenarios they can accrue in a neutral-court setting.

Nevertheless, their Missouri Valley tournament odds opened as high as 25-1 at FanDuel Sportsbook. It’s equivalent to a 3.85% implied probability. My raw numbers gave them roughly a 6.23% chance of advancing to March Madness. That may not seem like enough of an edge to place your average wager, but considering their path, it was worthwhile for me in this betting market.

Although Belmont failed to collect one of four byes, their first-round matchup comes versus lowly Valparaiso. If Casey Alexander’s crew advances, they would square off with fourth-seeded Northern Iowa, which I have power-rated a tad lower than Belmont. After taking into account the Panthers’ rest advantage, some shops opened them at 10-1 odds, which was a bit too short per my numbers.

Should the Bruins, they would then face Indiana State for a third time. The Sycamores swept them in the regular season, yet both games were without Gillespie.

Moreover, Belmont possesses enough depth to garner four consecutive wins. It ranks league average in bench minutes usage (28.8%).

Related: Conference Tournament Schedule, Betting Odds

Final Thoughts

From a pure talent perspective, the Bruins are below Indiana State and Drake but not by as much as the market illustrates. Even outside of Gillespie, they’re the healthiest they’ve been all season.

Fellow sophomore Cade Tyson, who reportedly suffered from a respiratory illness for weeks, produces 16.7 points per game while ranking No. 13 in perimeter shooting (47.9%) across D-I. Recently, he’s displayed the offensive prowess that had him voted preseason first-team all-MVC. His frontcourt mate Malik Dia, who transferred from Vanderbilt en route to evolving into an NBA prospect, has also allegedly been ill over the last week. Dia should be at full strength come Thursday.

If you’re interested in Belmont’s MVC tournament odds but couldn’t grab the aforementioned odds in time, register for TheLines.com’s free sports betting Discord to get an immediate alert when I make a bet. Just subscribe to the #roles server to enroll in push notifications.

As of this publishing, the best available number on the Bruins is +2300.

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Missouri Valley Tournament Bracket

arch madness Schedule

First Round: Thursday, March 7
Quarterfinals: Friday, March 8
Semifinals: Saturday, March 9
Championship: Sunday, March 10

How To Watch Missouri Valley Tournament

The first two rounds will air on the Missouri Valley Conference TV Network, including regional Bally Sports channels and ESPN+. You can watch the semifinals and title game on CBS Sports Network.

Outside Shots, TheLines.com’s college basketball podcast, handicaps this week’s mid-major conference tournaments. Subscribe to the show on Apple, Spotify, or watch on our YouTube channel below.