Missouri Valley Tournament Odds & Picks: Two-Bid MVC, Including Drake?
With March Madness odds nearing tip-off, the best conference tournament (for my money) has arrived: Arch Madness. The 2025 Missouri Valley men's basketball tournament tips off on Thursday. This postseason event includes 12 contestants, and the winner will claim the conference's automatic bid for the NCAA tournament. Let's evaluate the most pertinent information for Missouri Valley odds. Drake, which is favored among the odds for the MVC tourney, won't play until Friday.
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2025 Missouri Valley Tournament Odds
MVC tournament odds: fade the Drake?
No matter which sportsbook (and its corresponding college basketball promo codes) bettors sift through, the Bulldogs are perched atop the odds board for the Missouri Valley tourney. As of this publication, BetMGM Sportsbook has them positioned with a 52.4% implied probability of earning an auto berth in March Madness.
Haslametrics has them ranked sixth nationally in his away-from-home (AFH) rating, including their lone Quadrant 1 win versus Vanderbilt in the championship tilt of the Charleston Classic. Per Rocco Miller and DJ Bauer, two of the top bracketologists on the interwebs, Drake may clinch an at-large bid regardless of whether it loses in the title game or as early as the quarterfinals.
Ben McCollum, the Bulldogs' first-year coach, would never admit whether his team would rather win Arch Madness or bow out beforehand to rest and prep for the Big Dance. But given its NCAA tournament resume, it's worth considering.
Remember that Drake is likelier to earn an at-large berth than last year's Indiana State Sycamores. After falling to Drake in the MVC title game, Robbie Avila and Co. were sent to the NIT because they failed to nab notable victories in non-conference play.
Missouri Valley Upset Pick: Northern Iowa Odds
Ben Jacobson's squad settles on the opposite side of the bracket, steering clear of top-seeded Drake until a potential bout in the finals. The Bulldogs swept the Panthers in the regular season, but UNI would have major revenge on its mind. After holding an 87.1% win probability in the waning seconds of their second meeting, Drake's Mitch Mascari was fouled on a 3-point heave before the Bulldogs secured an overtime victory.
Still, the Panthers have won seven of their last nine games ahead of the MVC tournament. Their losses came in heartbreaking fashion against Drake and in a meaningless defeat at Bradley in the regular-season finale.
Stylistically, UNI ranks 290th in adjusted tempo, dictating a slower pace via its prowess on the defensive glass. Conversely, the Panthers' offense runs through the paint. Led by veterans Tytan Anderson and Jacob Hutson, their post-up efficiency grades in the 90th percentile on a points-per-possession (PPP).
Their pick-and-roll action is also quite reliable, which would again pay dividends versus Drake and Bradley's subpar ball-screen coverage. Injury-wise, the return of sophomore Leon Bond (partial tear of his patella tendon), who missed nine contests before re-entering in a reserve role on Sunday, will only assist these efforts. The Virginia transfer started in 21 games, delivering 10.4 points and 4.8 rebounds per game.
Jacobson hasn't taken this program to March Madness since 2016, but I expect that streak to end come Sunday.
On Thursday, I bet on Northern Iowa's +650 odds to win the Missouri Valley tournament. You can view all my picks on our free sports betting Discord channel. Users can enroll in push notifications via the #roles server to secure instant alerts.
Futures Betting vs. Moneyline (ML) Rollover
For novice bettors, this strategy involves betting on a team's ML odds and using the winnings to bet the ML in the subsequent game. ML rollovers are especially favorable for teams that could be underdogs in the remainder of their potential matchups.
Here's an example. A $100 futures bet on Northern Iowa would net $500 if it wins Arch Madness at 5-1 odds. But let's say you used the ML rollover option. Wagering $100 on the Panthers as -325 quarterfinal favorites against UIC would net $30.77 if they advance.
Then, you'd roll over the $130.77 as an underdog in potential showdowns against Bradley and Drake.
There's no guarantee this game plan will provide a more profitable outcome. We can use a parlay calculator to determine that average odds of +110 or shorter in the final two games would produce less return than a +650 futures bet. Should either Drake or Bradley fall victim to an upset, the moneyline rollover strategy would generate an even worse ROI for third-seeded UNI.
Why Not Bradley?
I hinted at No. 2 seed Bradley as a potential bracket buster, yet there are a few warning signs ahead of Arch Madness. The Braves have accrued the most record luck at ShotQuality, going 9-1 straight up in contests decided by two possessions or less or overtime.
Moreover, their perimeter defense has outperformed expectations, surrendering a 32.6% clip in league play while allowing the fourth-highest open 3-point attempt rate. There's no telling how much variance will ensue in a single-elimination setting. Given Bradley's fortunate outcomes thus far, I believe this hasn't been priced into the market enough.
Will Madness Ensue?
Since Arch Madness expanded to four rounds in 1997, no team has won four straight en route to the tournament crown. No. 5 seed Illinois State (+1800) is an intriguing longshot bet, but winning four consecutive matchups — without any days off — is as daunting as it sounds.
The Redbirds have the depth to win four games in four days and could swing matchups with high-volume 3-point shooting, yet third-year coach Ryan Pedon has never advanced past the first round. I have difficulty putting money behind a coach that lacks success in a tournament setting.
Last season, I pegged Belmont as my favorite longshot bet among Missouri Valley tournament odds. The fifth-seeded Bruins fell to the abovementioned Panthers in the quarterfinals despite touting two of the conference's most talented players, Ja'Kobi Gillespie and Malik Dia, who have since transferred and thrived at Maryland and Ole Miss, respectively.
MVC Tournament Path
Unlike the bracket for ASUN odds, Arch Madness doesn't reseed at any point. Drake, Bradley, Northern Iowa, and Belmont have first-round byes. You can follow along with the league's official bracket below.
2025 Missouri Valley Tournament Schedule
- First Round: Thursday, March 6
- Quarterfinals: Friday, March 7
- Semifinals: Saturday, March 8
- Missouri Valley Championship: Sunday, March 9
How To Watch MVC Tournament
ESPN+ and local affiliates will broadcast the opening round and quarterfinals on Thursday and Friday. The semifinals will air on CBS Sports Network before shifting to CBS for the championship game on Sunday, March 9.
Watch: Arch Madness Betting Preview
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