Milwaukee Brewers Odds: MLB Win Totals, Projections, Possible Bets
Welcome to TheLines.com's 2024 Spring Training preview of MLB odds. We'll preview every team's 2024 season with a focus on MLB win totals and World Series odds. We'll evaluate each team's roster and see if there are any wagers worth considering. Today, we'll look at Milwaukee Brewers odds.
The Brewers enjoyed a tremendous season in 2023, winning 92 games and cruising to the NL Central title after everyone chasing them faded down the stretch. However, the team got a significant offseason makeover, losing two aces from a top-level staff.
Can the Brewers quickly retool around their young hitters?
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Brewers Odds: An Overview And What The Projections Say
First, let's compare the market on Brewers odds to publicly available projections from FanGraphs and Baseball Prospectus.
- 2023 wins: 92
- Market wins: /
- FanGraphs wins: 81
- Baseball Prospectus wins: 79.5
Milwaukee is expected to take a considerable step back in 2024. That's understandable since they lost two ace-level pitchers who have powered the team to multiple playoff runs. Brandon Woodruff isn't expected to throw a pitch this year after sustaining a serious shoulder injury. And the team opted to trade disgruntled starter Corbin Burnes before losing him for nothing.
Remember that the Brewers were also one of the luckiest teams last year, with +7 wins attributed to sequencing.
Note, though, that they likely took a hit at manager, with Craig Counsell lured away for big dollars to the Cubs. Veteran Pat Murphy will do his best to replace a man widely considered one of the best in the business.
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Evaluating The Brewers Roster
Bats And Defense
The good news for the Brewers is that trade should bear some immediate fruit, with Joey Ortiz expected to start immediately in the infield. He has a chance to become an average starter right away, and an elite glove at second gives him some margin for error while the bat develops.
And the team has a couple of other additions that should considerably raise the level of the lineup.
Rhys Hoskins was a nice signing to hit cleanup. He's poor with the glove but the man can hit, and that's what the Brewers sorely need after finishing with a 92 wRC+, good for 24th in MLB.
Most enticingly, CF Jackson Chourio will join the lineup. Arguably the top prospect in all of baseball, Chourio signed an early extension, so the club has no reason to keep him in the minors. Chourio is expected to develop into an MVP candidate and projects as an average player before he takes an MLB swing, which is no mean feat for a 20-year-old.
Because there's youth everywhere hear, significant error bars exist around the Brewers' expected output. Only Hoskins and Christian Yelich are on the wrong side of 30, and both should remain productive, provided Hoskins recovers fully from his torn ACL.
One thing seems certain: Milwaukee should have a tremendous defense. Arguably MLB's best last season (first in Outs Above Average), adding Chourio and Ortiz should only improve things. The key will be William Contreras repeating his awesome framing after making a huge jump there in his first year with the club.
Pitching
Editor's note: this post was written and published before the announcement that Devin Williams would miss significant time with a back injury.
The starting rotation has taken the aforementioned massive hits and now goes from one of MLB's best to probably in the bottom 10. Freddy Peralta is still a good pitcher in his prime, but things quickly get problematic after him.
Wade Miley can probably keep working on his contact management wizardry, and he's certainly on the right team to do so. But entering his age-37 season, he could go full Adam Wainwright at any moment.
Beyond those two, the Brewers are just throwing low-cost darts at the board and hoping things stick.
Jakob Junis' career has taken a turn for the better since he started throwing his excellent slider more than half of the time. We'll see if that approach works in the rotation rather than the pen, though. Colin Rea might be an acceptable back-end innings eater, or he might be a starter of sub-MLB quality. We'll get a better idea with a bigger sample. DL Hall (another return from the Burnes deal) has tremendous stuff but poor command. The Brewers will do their best to develop him.
Thankfully, this motley group shouldn't need to meet a tremendously high bar. Simply providing 5-6 competent innings will keep the Brewers in games, thanks to their strong bullpen. Devin Williams is a top-five closer in baseball, and the setup crew is deep and solid. Abner Uribe, in particular, looks like a future closer with his 100-mph heat if he can start coaxing more swings and misses.
Possible Bets On Brewers Odds
The Brewers look like a roughly .500 baseball team, with something close to average projection on both sides of the ball. The offense was weak last year but should improve as young hitters get better. Amazing defense and a stout bullpen should somewhat mitigate the weak starting rotation.
I'm bullish on Milwaukee due to a few factors.
For one, I like that they've built the team to cover up the main weakness, the starting rotation, as best it can. While the talent there is mostly uninspiring, the defense will get the most out of these arms, and the bullpen should salt away most of the leads they're given.
Another thing I like here is general organizational competence. Milwaukee is a franchise that has limited resources and thus has had to figure out how to maximize its players (like the Rays) to have success. They develop and coach pitching as well as anyone, which also bodes well for the arms performing better than it looks on paper.
Overall, I think the market for the Brewers is too low. I think this could be an 85-win team if things click, but there's a significant downside as well because management could opt to sell arms with an eye to the future if the young batters are behind schedule.
With that downside in mind, I've opted to buy in on the Brewers to win the NL Central at +900, an off-market number at Caesars Sportsbook. I don't see the Brewers as far behind Chicago and St. Louis as the market believes. I'm already on the record as low on Reds odds.
Best of luck if you decide to bet Brewers odds this spring.
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