Michigan vs UConn National Championship Odds, Predictions & Best Bets

Written By Dan Angell | Published at April 6, 2026

Apr 4, 2026; Indianapolis, IN, USA; Michigan Wolverines guard Elliot Cadeau (3) loses control of the ball against the Arizona Wildcats during the second half in a semifinal of the Final Four of the men's 2026 NCAA Tournament at Lucas Oil Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Bob Donnan-Imagn Images

Three years ago, Connecticut coach Dan Hurley arrived at his first Final Four as the favorite. He had the best team, and the Huskies emerged victorious on Monday night. Dusty May arrived at that same Final Four as the upstart with Florida Atlantic, which nobody expected to get that far. May has since moved north to Michigan, and as he faces this Michigan vs. Connecticut final, he and Hurley have swapped roles.

May now leads the consensus top team in college basketball. Michigan has dominated the college basketball world all season, going 36-3 and beating all five of its tournament opponents by 13 points or more. The only team that showed it could go pound-for-pound with the Wolverines, Duke, never made it to Indianapolis.

Hurley arrived with what appeared the weakest team. Connecticut has its eyes on its third championship in four years, but nobody outside of their locker room figured it would happen. The Huskies aren’t as good as their 2023 or 2024 versions. Yet Connecticut keeps finding a way, and to get here, Hurley’s team did what Michigan could not: beat Duke on a neutral floor.

And now May has to guide his team past the man who’s become college basketball’s best coach. Hurley’s record in the past four NCAA tournaments is 18-1, and the only team to beat him was last year’s champion, Florida.

Here’s a look at the men’s national championship game.

Michigan vs. UConn Prediction

Best Bet: Michigan -6.5 (BetMGM, -110)

It’s hard to pick against Connecticut in the national title game. The Huskies are in their seventh national title game, and they’re 6-0 overall in the final game. But with the way Michigan has played in this tournament, nobody is capable of beating the Wolverines. If Connecticut is going to win this game, Michigan has to play below its capabilities.

And the Huskies’ strengths don’t match up well with the Wolverines. Connecticut fouls more than it should and has all season. Michigan loves to get to the line and can get Connecticut’s bigs in foul trouble early. The Wolverines have incredible depth and can survive losing a key player early.

They did exactly that in the semifinal win against Arizona. Yaxel Lendeborg picked up two quick fouls and sat, but Michigan did not miss a beat. The Wolverines kept rolling and blitzed Arizona, never letting them into the game. When Lendeborg returned, Michigan hit the gas further and blistered the Wildcats.

Connecticut doesn’t have that other gear. Past Huskies teams did, but this one does not. Connecticut has done brilliantly to get this far, but that is largely because of Hurley’s coaching. May has been here before and won’t panic in the spotlight. He has the personnel available to keep Hurley from winning this chess match.

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Michigan vs. Arizona Same Game Parlay

Michigan -6.5

Over 145.5

Elliot Cadeau Over 7.5 Assists

Cadeau is in full command of his team’s offense. In the win over Arizona, Cadeau dished out 10 assists, regularly unlocking a defense that usually prevents opponents from getting the ball inside.

Connecticut will likely have similar problems stopping Cadeau. He gets the ball where it needs to be and regularly makes brilliant decisions with it. Michigan also has so many weapons that Cadeau is never short of an option. He’s likely to move the ball where he wants, and Connecticut isn’t likely to knock him off his game.

The Huskies’ defense has looked great in the tournament. But Connecticut has benefitted from facing methodical teams in the tournament. The fastest team the Huskies have faced was Michigan State, who ranks in the bottom half nationally. Michigan pushes the pace, and Connecticut has struggled against fast-paced teams.

Of the Huskies’ five defeats, all came against teams who rank in the top 105 nationally in tempo. Michigan ranks 48th. That means the over’s in play, and the Wolverines should race their way to the title.

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