Miami vs Indiana: Best CFP Picks and Props For The National Championship
The College Football Playoff has given football fans a lot to enjoy in January. However, close games in the title game haven’t been one of those things.
The playoff can be divided into two eras: pre and post-2020. In the first five games of the playoff era, the underdog covered every time and won the title outright three times. But when LSU throttled Clemson in 2020, that marked a change: the favorite has covered every single time since then.
Most times, the College Football Playoff National Championship Game hasn’t been remotely close. None of the past seven have been decided by less than 11 points. And with Indiana arriving undefeated and giving more than a touchdown, the odds expect that trend to continue.
Can Miami upset the apple cart? Here are a few of the best CFP national championship picks and props.
CFP National Championship Spread and Total Plays
Spread: Miami vs. Indiana (-7.5, -105, BetMGM )
The Hoosiers have been a juggernaut on both sides of the ball. Indiana’s defense is perfectly capable of creating big plays, as it showed in scoring on their opponent’s first possession against UCLA and Oregon.
The Hoosiers also hold a big advantage in the first half with Miami’s maligned secondary missing Xavier Lucas. That gives Indiana incentive to attack quickly and force the Hurricanes to play faster than they want to.
Miami tends to make a lot of mistakes when it plays fast. Indiana is the type of team that capitalizes on mistakes and magnifies them. If the Hurricanes don’t keep pace with the Hoosiers early, the score could get out of hand.
Pick: Indiana -7.5
Up To $1500 in Bonus Bets Paid Back if your First Bet Does Not Win Total: Miami vs. Indiana (Over 47.5, -110, FanDuel )
In practice, the way Indiana wants to play this game tends to force a higher total. Miami wants to slow the game down, but Indiana can play either way. In this game, the Hoosiers want the knockout punch as early as possible. The longer Miami stays in the game, the more the Hurricanes will believe they should win it. Indiana wants to play aggressive and take away that hope.
The Hoosiers look very capable of doing that, and if they are, Miami will have no choice but to rush the tempo. That will result in one of two things: quick scores for Miami or short fields for Indiana, both of which result in scores.
Miami wants a methodical game, so there’s a great argument for a same-game spread and total parlay. If you’re riding with the Hoosiers, you want the over; a Miami bettor should play the under.
Pick: Over 47.5
NCAAF Parlay Pick: Indiana -7.5/Over 47.5 (+273)
Best College Football Playoff National Championship Prop Picks
Elijah Sarratt, Indiana, Anytime Touchdown (-115, BetMGM)
Sarratt has been so good this season that he missed three games and still managed to score 15 touchdowns. He’s scored in the past nine games where he suited up for Indiana, and the last time he didn’t came against Indiana State, where the Hoosiers were so dominant that they didn’t need him to do anything.
Miami isn’t likely to stop him, not with its secondary in shambles. With the Hoosiers likely to get aggressive, taking Sarratt to score the first touchdown at +550 also represents good value.
Kaelon Black, Indiana, Over 59.5 Yards (-114, FanDuel)
Both Kaelon Black and Roman Hemby have dominated on the ground for Indiana this season. But Black is the fresher back and has been doing more in the playoff. Black has gained at least 60 yards in each of Indiana’s past four games, but his total sits slightly lower than Hemby’s despite being the more consistent back.
Both players get roughly the same workload, and Black should do a bit more with his. Both look likely to go over their totals, but Black’s is a bit easier to reach for the exact same price.
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