Miami Marlins Odds: MLB Win Totals, Projections, Possible Bets
Welcome to TheLines.com’s 2024 Spring Training preview of MLB odds. We’ll preview every team’s 2024 season with a focus on MLB win totals and World Series odds. We’ll evaluate each team’s roster and see if there are any wagers worth considering. Today, we’ll look at Miami Marlins odds. Click this link to catch up on our other 2024 MLB betting previews.
The Marlins made a surprise playoff appearance in 2023 but were summarily thrashed 2-0 by the Phillies.
Can the Fish ride their elite but fragile pitching staff to another playoff run?
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Marlins Odds: An Overview And What The Projections Say
First, let’s compare the market on Marlins odds to publicly available projections from FanGraphs and Baseball Prospectus.
- 2023 wins: 84
- Market wins: /
- FanGraphs wins: 80.6
- Baseball Prospectus wins: 79.5
If those numbers look low for a playoff team, keep in mind that the Marlins were one of the luckiest teams in 2023. They would have lost 20 wins reversing the result of every 1-run game, the most of any team. The market has adjusted accordingly.
Miami also experienced some talent drain. Bopper Jorge Soler walked and signed with the Giants, while David Robertson, who helped stabilize the bullpen and win some of the aforementioned 1-run games, also moved on.
Evaluating The Marlins Roster
Bats And Defense
Miami had a weak offense, landing at 20th with a wRC+ of 94. Losing Soler and his 36 bombs isn’t going to help matters.
Luis Arraez will set the table ably with his elite on-base skills, even if he does literally nothing else well. The key will be how well the four guys following him perform. Because we can be just about certain the bottom of the order will stink up the joint.
Jake Burger and Josh Bell crushed it after coming over in late-season trades. Both of them tattooed the ball according to Statcast, so they deserved their strong results. The problem is that both need to smash the baseball because both give a ton back on defense. Bell especially has hands of stone at first. He’s also experienced many swings in his performance over the years, so it’s anyone’s guess what he’ll bring in 2024.
Jazz Chisholm is a good player when he’s upright, so the main question there is health. He has played an average of 93.7 games across his three full seasons. More of that would be bad since the outfield depth here is terrible.
Finally, we have Tim Anderson. He might have been the worst full-time regular in MLB last year, performing poorly in all facets of the game. Heading into just his age-31 season, it’s hard to imagine he’s completely washed. Hopefully, for Miami’s sake, he has a dead-cat bounce left in him.
The less said about the rest of the lineup, the better.
Likewise the defense. It rated poorly in 2023 no matter which metric one checks. Chisholm might be the only plus defender on the team, and Statcast was the only system that rated him well. Still, he’s new to CF and should continue to improve with reps.
Pitching
This is where Miami shined last year, landing eighth in pitching WAR. It’s not hard to see why, as a rotation of Sandy Alcantara, Eury Perez, Jesus Luzardo, Braxton Garrett, and Edward Cabrera stacks up against any other in MLB.
Unfortunately, the Fish are starting out massively behind in this department. Alcantara is out for the year after late-season elbow surgery. Hopefully, he’s ready for 2025.
Of the others, only Luzardo is currently healthy and slated to begin the season in the rotation. And he comes with his own rather large health question marks. He was great and durable last season, but that’s the first such season he’s had in three tries. The lefty fireballer continuing to stay upright is far from guaranteed.
None of the others have serious injuries, but each is slated to begin the season on the IL. The team figures to be especially careful with Perez, as he has the upside to be the best pitcher on the planet some day.
The answers in the meantime … do not look promising. Ryan Weathers has been terrible as a big-league starter. AJ Puk is a solid reliever, but the last time he made more starts than relief appearances was in 2019 at High A. Trevor Rogers is coming off a bad season and then a lost season. Max Meyer was an elite prospect but hasn’t established himself as a big leaguer and last pitched in July 2022 (Tommy John surgery).
At least the unit has a solid bullpen backing it, especially if erstwhile former top prospect Sixto Sanchez can re-establish himself after essentially three lost seasons.
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Possible Bets On Marlins Odds
Most of the ways in which the Marlins experienced success last year don’t feel sustainable. Their bullpen was among the league leaders in WAR and doesn’t profile as one of the league’s best. The best power hitter has moved on. And the starting pitching, which was great and very durable, enters the season in shambles.
What I’m ultimately seeing here is a team that’s starting the season below average in every facet of baseball except possibly the bullpen. Yes, the starting pitching should be good eventually, but when? There’s no guarantee these guys get healthy and become effective any time soon. Even the one “sure thing,” Luzardo, looks like he’ll be hard-pressed to repeat last year’s success.
And the bats and defense both look bottom 10.
By the time the pitching comes around, I’m guessing the Marlins will be buried in the standings and looking to sell off pieces. I like under 78.5 (-120) here.
Best of luck if you decide to bet on the Marlins odds this spring.
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