2025 Mexico Open Betting Preview: Everything You Need To Know About Vidanta Vallarta

It’s another week of golf action on the PGA Tour. The next stop is the 2025 Mexico Open at Vidanta Vallarta. Compare Mexico Open odds at the best sports betting sites to increase your potential PGA Tour golf betting payouts. Maverick McNealy, Akshay Bhatia, and Kurt Kitayama project as the top favorites for this upcoming tournament.

For the first time in 2025, PGA Tour players reach for their passports and travel to Mexico for the 2025 Mexico Open at Vidanta. After its debut on the PGA Tour schedule in 2022, we are running it back at Greg Norman’s Vidanta Vallarta resort course in Puerto Vallarta for the fourth consecutive year. Below, we’ll dive into Mexico Open odds for this week’s PGA Tour betting.

Through its first three years on the PGA Tour schedule, Vidanta Vallarta has proven to be the purest example of a bomber’s paradise, rewarding the longest players in the field regardless of their form leading in. Standing over 7,500 yards with generous fairways and moderate rough, long hitters like Jon Rahm, Tony Finau, Kurt Kitayama, Cameron Champ, and Jake Knapp have paid off the bomber narrative well thus far. It seems there’s credence to that narrative and merit behind chasing the longest drivers and best long-iron players yet again this time. Here’s everything you can expect from Vidanta Vallarta ahead of the 2025 Mexico Open.

MEXICO OPEN ODDS: THE FAVORITES

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THE FIELD AT A GLANCE

The negative repercussions of a new Designated Event schedule fall on in-between events, for which star players are less likely to travel out of their way. Despite finding a more logistically reasonable spot on the schedule as a bridge between the West Coast and Florida swings, The Mexico Open, unfortunately, remains a natural bye week for the top players in the world, as there will be no OWGR top-25 players teeing it up at Vidanta Vallarta this week.

There is undoubtedly an “opposite field” feel to this week’s tournament, which lacks an obvious headliner, but if basing the projected favorites off of OWGR alone, Maverick McNealy, Aaron Rai, Akshay Bhatia, Rasmus Hojgaard, and Stephan Jaeger are the five OWGR top-50 players to watch in Mexico.

Jake Knapp is back in the field this week, looking to defend his 2024 Mexico Open at Vidanta title. He is the lone defending champion in 2025, with Jon Rahm and Tony Finau absent.

INTRODUCTION TO VIDANTA VALLARTA

Going into this event in 2022, plenty of guesswork was needed to project how it would play professionally, hosting some of the best players in the world for the first time. From the information available, we assumed the course would be long, just under 7,500 yards at sea level, with slow and sticky Paspalum grass throughout. Puerto Vallarta is also known for its high winds just off the Pacific coastline, so we can expect top players in windy conditions to be suited for this setup. That is a standard formula to favor the players with the longest carry distance and long-iron play.

It doesn’t always work out this way. But after a three-year sample size, it seems all the presumed narratives, of course, fit for bombers and top long-iron players ring true. With such a clear player archetype in mind, it should be pretty straightforward to narrow down a player pool of contenders this week to those two criteria, with a bonus of performance in comp coastal, windy conditions.

Looking at the 2024 leaderboard, eight of the top-12 finishers entered the week ranking in the top 40 in both Driving Distance and Proximity Gained, so after successfully landing on Jake Knapp last year, I will continue to rely on that same player profile formula at this event.

For Vidanta Vallarta course specs, hole-by-hole breakdown with yardages, and past Mexico Open winners with their pre-tournament odds, visit our Mexico Open page.

Editor’s Note

COURSE COMPS & Course history

Vidanta Vallarta is a long course that rewards the best long-iron players from 200+ yards. The constant wind and familiar slow and sticky Paspalum greens should reward players with proven results on coastal resort courses. Players like Tony Finau, Cameron Champ, Jon Rahm, Kiurt Kitayama, Jake Knapp, Alex Smalley, and Patrick Rodgers fit that profile with top-10 finishes here over the first three years.

Of the players in the field this week, the top 10 in terms of Total Strokes Gained at the Mexico Open at Vidanta include Jake Knapp, Patrick Rodgers, Akshay Bhatia, Stephan Jaeger, Kurt Kitayama, Sami Valimaki, Carson Young, CT Pan, Emiliano Grillo, and Beau Hossler.

The Best Comp Courses

Grand Reserve, Corales Golf Club, and El Cardonal at Diamante are the three clear-cut best comps. Each is a resort-style course exposed to high winds and features Paspalum grass. They rely on distance as their core defense, each sitting at over 7,400 yards. For the most part, they do not penalize players for wayward drives off the tee. As an added bonus, each draws some of the weakest fields we see all year.

The top 10 players in SG: TOT between these two courses are Akshay Bhatia, Justin Lower, Alex Smalley, Andrew Putnam, Tyler McCumber, Nate Lashley, Patrick Rodgers, Carson Young, Sam Stevens, and Harry Hall.

Between these two comps, Vidanta Vallarta should play more like Grand Reserve. At Corales, shorter hitters found as much success as the bombers. In five of its first six years, Ramey, McDowell, Garnett, and Joel Dahmen won. Corales gets a majority of its length from several 600-plus yard par 5s. That neutralizes some of the distance advantage when players can’t reach the green in two shots. At Grand Reserve, we’ve seen more success from bombers like Brehm, Hovland, and Finau.

Other Comp Courses

When considering comps in the continental US, TPC Craig Ranch comes to mind when referring to other driver-heavy, open layouts on the PGA Tour. Like Vidanta Vallarta, it was a very player-friendly course that attempted to toughen up for tournament play by extending tee boxes in its first year. Despite record rainfall, it featured minimal rollout on Zoysia fairways and rewarded players with long carry distances. 

Congaree is another new tour addition that favors bombers with generously wide fairways, although it played significantly firmer and faster than this week’s event will. The Plantation Course at Kapalua, CC of Jackson, Torrey Pines, and Kiawah Island round out a list of comp courses that favor the longest hitters in the field and discount the need for driving accuracy or elite skillsets around the green.

Combine performance across each of these comps, and the top 10 players in Comp Course History from this week’s field are Akshay Bhatia, Alex Smalley, Justin Lower, Henrik Norlander, Vincent Norrman, Patrick Rodgers, Tyler McCumber, Beau Hossler, CT Pan, and Nate Lashley.

KEY STATS TO CONSIDER at the 2025 mexico open

• Driving Distance
• SG: APP / SG: Ball Striking
• SG: T2G (Recent Form)
• Birdie or Better Gained
• Prox 200+
• Sand Saves Gained
• SG: T2G (>7,400 Yard Courses)
• SG: TOT (Windy Courses)
• Comp Course History

A top-10 course in total yardage last season, Vidanta Vallarta’s generous fairways should continue to serve as a bomber’s paradise and reward the longest drivers in the field. The top 10 in terms of driving distance over the last 36 rounds are Aldrich Potgieter, Alejandro Tosti, Trevor Cone, Michael Thorbjornsen, Ryan Fox, Chris Gotterup, Keith Mitchell, Paul Waring, Jesper Svensson, and Luke List.

Vidanta Vallarta features three 195+ yard par-3s, four long par-5s, and six par-4s over 450 yards. Combined, that’s drawn 35% of total approach shots from beyond 200 yards, nearly double the PGA Tour average. Suffice it to say, the best approach players from 200+ yards can separate themselves from the field this week. The top 10 from that range are Alejandro Tosti, Taylor Dickson, Nicolai Hojgaard, Jackson Suber, Nick Hardy, Emiliano Grillo, Sami Valimaki, Matt Schmid, CT Pan, and Michael Thorbjornsen.

I’m not looking closely at Short Game stats this week beyond Sand Saves Gained. The greens complexes seem very straightforward a,nd Paspalum tends to level the playing field.

Simple Selection?

Suppose this is as simple as who can drive it the farthest and knock their irons the closest. In that case, eight players rank top-40 in Driving Distance & Prox 200+ and above-average in SG: P: Matti Schmid, Michael Thorbjornsen, Michael Kim, Alex Smalley, Maverick McNealy, Harry Hall, Hayden Springer, Erik van Rooyen.

This course seemed to lean towards a birdie fest with its generous fairways and not-so-penal rough. But, scoring this far has been kept at bay thanks to the constant intervention of the wind, with a winning mark in the high teens under par over its first three years. To adjust, I’m looking for players who perform best in long, yet not severely difficult conditions. The top-10 in that category are Alex Smalley, Justin Lower, Tyler McCumber, Henrik Norlander, CT Pan, Sam Stevens, Maverick McNealy, Jacob Bridgeman, Stephan Jaeger, and Harry Hall.

Just five players in the field rank above average in Prox: 200+, Driving Distance, Birdies or Better Gained, Comp Course History, and SG: Putting: Alex Smalley, Harry Hall, Hayden Springer, Michael Thorbjornsen, and Erik van Rooyen.

Correlation at Vidanta Vallarta

Judging from the first three years of play at Vidanta Vallarta, SG: Short Game, Par 3: 175-200, and Double Bogey Avoidance made the most notable jumps compared to the tour average. Conversely, Par 4: 450-500 and SG: Ball Striking were considerably less correlated with top results thus far.

Five players in the field rank above average in each of the above key stat categories: Alex Smalley, Harry Hall, Hayden Springer, Michael Thorbjornsen, and Rasmus Hojgaard.

PLAYER SPOTLIGHT: Kurt Kitayama

If the Mexico Open at Vidanta has shown us anything over its first three years, we can’t overthink it. Vidanta Vallarta is a long golf course with huge fairways and greens that places very little reward on accuracy and instead tips the scales to Driving Distance and Prox: 200+ importance. This year, Kurt Kitayama checks every “cliche” box I’m looking for in terms of distance, long irons, and Course & Comp Course performance, and we may not even have to pay the steepest premium on his odds come Monday.

Kitayama is no stranger to Vidanta Vallarta, falling just one stroke short of Jon Rahm at this event in 2022. He has a type when it comes to golf courses, as all six of his top-4 finishes since 2022 have come at venues that stretch beyond 7,400 yards. That includes a win at the 2023 Arnold Palmer Invitational, which may be the most impressive singular feat of any player teeing it up in this lackluster field.

Coming into this week, Kitayama ranks No. 2 in my model, rating out top-3 over the last 36 rounds in terms of SG: TOT, SG: T2G, SG: APP, and Course History. This week, he is among four players to rank in the top 20 in Driving Distance and Prox: 200+.

His metrics have been far better this season than the finishes would otherwise show. But entering this week as an ideal profile fit with proven history, I’ve already Sharpie’d in Kurt Kitayama as my OAD selection, and he’ll land on my betting card when odds release.

2025 Mexico open at Vidanta Odds: DFS PLAYER POOL

With all the course-fit profiles in mind, I’m leaning early toward the below player pool. Naturally, I’m also looking their way in the 2025 Mexico Open at Vidanta odds. I’ve broken the list by actualized pricing/odds tier for DraftKings and rankings projections for Underdog Fantasy, with odds and pricing released earlier this week.

UNDERDOG GOLF DRAFT RANKINGS TIERS

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Tier 1

Maverick McNealy

Tier 2

Akshay Bhatia
Stephan Jaeger
Patrick Rodgers
Nicolai Hojgaard
Rasmus Hojgaard
Kurt Kitayama

Tier 3

Alex Smalley
CT Pan
Charley Hoffman
Harry Hall
Taylor Moore
Sam Stevens

Tier 4

Hayden Springer
Matti Schmid
Jake Knapp
Michael Thorbjornsen
Erik van Rooyen

Tier 5

Carson Young
Alejandro Tosti
Aldrich Potgieter

MODEL RESULTS & BREAKDOWN

In my model this week, I’m emphasizing Comp Course History, Recent Form (SG: T2G), SG: APP, Prox 200+, and Driving Distance, followed by a more balanced mix of SG: TOT (Long And Not Difficult Scoring), BoB %, Par-3 Scoring and Par-5 Scoring.

Model Favorites

There was no clear Model leader to expect this week. Out of a seemingly wide-open field, it is none other than Alex Smalley who prevails in the top slot. This makes plenty of sense for Smalley, who ranks in the top 20 across all key distance, approach, recent form, and comp condition categories. A relative unknown to the public eye, it’ll be interesting to see where Smalley is priced on Monday. He owns three top-20s over his last four starts and a career-best T6 showing at this event in 2022.

After Smalley, my model’s top 10 is rounded out by Kurt Kitayama, CT Pan, Maverick McNealy, Michael Kim, Carson Young, Henrik Norlander, Harry Hall, Akshay Bhatia, and Ben Griffin.

When the 2025 Mexico Open odds open, I already have a pretty clear idea of how I’ll construct my card. I’ll start with Kurt Kitayama, Alex Smalley, Hayden Springer, and Michael Thorbjornsen. From there, I will see how many additional mid-tier players (Harry Hall, Taylor Moore) and longshots (Aldrich Potgeiter, Alejandro Tosti, Matti Schmid) I can fit on my card.

Check back in later this week for more updates. Best of luck navigating the 2025 Mexico Open odds!

2025 Mexico open at Vidanta OPENING ODDS

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