With the absolute storm of huge events we’ve been blessed with in 2023 on the PGA TOUR schedule, the Mexico Open is a rest week for most top players as they prepare for the PGA Championship in mid-May. A field like this generally allows fringe TOUR players to make their mark on advancing to the FedExCup Playoffs. But a look at the Mexico Open odds board heading into the final round shows that the two household names that did show up came to play. Vidanta Vallarta is a beautiful resort course and a worthy host of an event with a very storied history. With former champions like Lee Trevino, Ben Crenshaw and now Jon Rahm, it’s a meaningful trophy to have your name engrained on.
Tournament Recap Through First Three Rounds
With relatively low winds, Vidanta has been susceptible to some very low scores so far this week. As a resort course near the coast, it’s mostly wide open and really only provides defense in its water hazards when the weather is calm. That was clear today when the top three players on the leaderboard combined to shoot 24 under.
Finau and Rahm Showing Their Form
Early in the week, we saw a surprising name on the top of the leaderboard in Austin Smotherman, although the SMU product has popped up a few times now on the PGA TOUR. Quickly, though, the cream of the crop made itself known in Mexico. With such a weak overall field at Vidanta, Jon Rahm and Tony Finau were very heavy favorites on the Mexico Open odds board. They finished 1st and 2nd a year ago, and they both come in with great form in the 12 months since.
Finau grabbed the 36-hole lead and did nothing to relinquish it in the third round with an impressive 65. But it was Rahm, the defending champion, who made the most noise on Saturday. After being on the brink of out of contention with a mediocre 68 on Friday, the Spaniard fired a 61 in the third round to shoot up the leaderboard into a tie for second. It was a round that could have easily flirted with 59, and now he finds himself in a great spot to defend his title and win a fifth trophy already in 2023.
Outside of the two favorites in the top two, Akshay Bhatia also charged on Saturday and sits in a tie with Rahm for second. Bhatia fired a 63 and is looking to turn his temporary membership on the PGA TOUR into a three-year exemption and eligibility into the FedExCup Playoffs.
Brandon Wu is the only other player within five shots of the lead. He sits three shots back after a 67 on Saturday. Wu was a joint runner-up with Finau here a year ago and has started to show more and more consistency on the PGA TOUR.
Final Round PGA TOUR Golf Bets To Consider
Winner: Jon Rahm
Best Odds Still Available:
I’ll be honest. it’s surprising to see how big of a difference in pricing there is between Tony Finau and Jon Rahm heading into the final round. While Finau has three times in the last nine months, those wins have come in very weak fields overall. This field does qualify as weak, but there’s a big difference. Finau was never really challenged in those victories on Sunday, and he definitely didn’t have a player of Rahm’s quality near him.
Finau did take down Rahm on an impressive Sunday at The Northern Trust in 2021, but that’s a long time from now, and Rahm is playing at a different level currently. What really concerns me on Finau is we saw glimpses on Saturday on why to avoid him in the final round. Finau’s ball striking has been superb all year, and that’s no different this week. He’s fourth in Strokes Gained: Approach and first in Strokes Gained: Off the Tee. But the real reason Finau leads is the flat stick’s performance in the first two rounds. On Saturday, that changed as he lost 1.73 strokes on the greens.
If that continues on Sunday, Rahm is poised to pounce. The Spaniard is first in putting this week with 7.11 strokes gained. You may fear regression, but Rahm has been hot on the greens for most of the year. I get the feeling that he’s incredibly motivated to do something special this year, and I’m happy to take these plus-odds for him to overtake a tentative Finau on Sunday. With only two other players really in contention and neither ready for this moment, I prefer Rahm even with a two-shot deficit here.
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Top-Five Finish: Erik van Rooyen
Best Odds Still Available: +700
Erik van Rooyen has been on my radar for most of 2023 as we’re starting to see signs of a resurgence from the South African. After winning on the PGA TOUR a couple years ago, he struggled through injuries and even took extensive time off. He’s posted some solid finishes in 2023 and most notably put together some gaudy numbers with his ball striking to suggest he’s close to really popping.
That’s the case again this week as van Rooyen sits right behind Finau in Strokes Gained: Approach with 6.09. He first came to the attention of many golf fans in the WGC-Mexico Championship in 2020 when he battled Patrick Reed and Bryson DeChambeau down the stretch to eventually finish third. That’s still his best ever result in the OWGR despite winning in multiple continents throughout his career. There might just be something about playing in Mexico that van Rooyen seems to like.
As a powerful and aggressive player, van Rooyen can really get after this resort-styled track. He currently sits T7 for the tournament. There are four players in prime position to separate from the rest of the field. That means there’s a big group of guys vying for the final spot in the top five on the Mexico Open odds board.
van Rooyen is the man with the most experience in this spot and most capable of going low in my opinion. Take these juicy odds for him to post a score and log his first top five since the Dubai Desert Classic in February 2022.
Top-10 Finish: Carson Young
Best Odds Still Available: +230
It’s a tough board to attack with the separation at the top and the congestion afterward, but this number for Carson Young intrigues me enough. The PGA TOUR rookie has started to find his footing here after a very rough start to his first year. He had a big lead early in the week in Puerto Rico before finishing third. Since then, he looked solid in Corales and then logged a very strong T19 at the RBC Heritage in an absolutely loaded field.
Young is very strong off the tee when clicking, which makes him an automatic fit this week. He sits eighth with 3.48 gained off the tee through three rounds and looked dominant there in a 65 on Saturday. Young is also hitting the irons well this week, which will generally be the key for him. He’s gained 3.99 with the irons so far, and if he can continue that, I see no reason why he won’t maintain his current position of 10th to log another top 10.
Mexico Open Odds
Click on any of the odds below to bet now and compare across sportsbooks in your state to ensure you are maximizing your potential profits before the final round on Sunday. Best of luck with Mexico Open odds.