2024 PGA TOUR Golf Bets: Mexico Open at Vidanta Final Thoughts, Betting Card, OAD

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Written By John Haslbauer | Last Updated
mexico open bets

PGA TOUR golf continues with Vidanta Vallarta next on tap to host the 2024 Mexico Open in Puerto Vallarta this Thursday. Tony Finau is the odds-on favorite. Nicolai Hojgaard and Thomas Detry also headline among Mexico Open bets this week, as John Haslbauer provides his favorite PGA TOUR picks among all the golf odds offered this week. Below, you’ll find the best odds across betting sites for each player.

Next stop: Puerto Vallarta, as the PGA TOUR players pack their passports for a trip south of the border to Vidanta Vallarta for the 2024 Mexico Open. 

This week has the feel of an opposite-field event, as defending champion Tony Finau is the lone OWGR top-40 player teeing it up. While there may not be a ton of name-brand players to get excited over, this event has shown early on to be one of the more predictable ones for golf betting, as a simple formula of driving distance and long-iron proximity have proven to be the consistent keys to success.

Let’s review all the bets I’ve placed for the 2024 Mexico Open at Vidanta.

Click on any of the Mexico Open odds below for the best available prices across sportsbooks in your state. Navigate to my longshots post for more golf DFS picks and considerations.

HOW I BUILT MY MEXICO OPEN AT VIDANTA BETTING CARD

2023 was a good year for me regarding weak, opposite-event field betting. While the Mexico Open is the only show in town this week, it will produce strength of field on par with the Corales and Puerto Rico Opens of the world. That tends to mean the win equity is more concentrated to the top of the board, as 100-1 outrights are far less viable in a field this poor compared to the Genesis Invitational last week.

For my betting card, I prioritized players with a winning pedigree who have displayed high finishes on comp courses and elite skillsets in driving distance and/or Prox: 200+.

With all of that in mind, it’s back to business as usual for my weekly stake at the Mexico Open at Vidanta:

  • Outrights – 3.5U in to pay 25U each
  • FRL – 0.5U in to pay out 10U+ each
  • Full Tournament Matchups – 1U in to pay out 2U
  • Props – 1.5U in to pay out 3U+ each

MEXICO OPEN BETS: OUTRIGHTS (3.5 UNITS)

For PGA TOUR DFS picks and longshot bet considerations, check out my golf sleepers for the Mexico Open.

Nicolai Hojgaard 

My Bet: +1900
Best Available Odds:

It’s not every week you can find the consensus second-favorite on the odds board at nearly 20-1. There’s no question Finau is deserving to be in a class of his own this week, with finishes of 1st and T2 over the first two Mexico Open contests. But from a recent form standpoint, Finau leaves plenty to be desired, as he is statistically one of the worst putters in this entire field and has registered just one top-10 finish since last August.

With that said, I think there’s a lot of inherent value in Hojgaard’s number this week as he benefits from an odds discount due to Finau’s Course History. Hojgaard has been on fire since returning victorious from Rome, picking up a win on the DP World Tour and four top-10s over seven starts since. That includes an impressive runner-up finish at the Farmers Insurance Open, where he flexed his premium skillsets of driving distance on long iron proximity. He leaned on the same strengths in his runner-up finish at the Corales Puntacana Championship last year and has all the tools needed to attack Vidanta Vallarta leading into this week. 

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Keith Mitchell

My Bet: +3300
Best Available Odds:

Elite skillsets off-the-tee are not required on a second-shot course like Vidanta Vallarta, but a combination of high-end driving distance and accuracy is a very beneficial starting point, as previous winners Jon Rahm and Tony Finau have proven.

Mitchell is on a short list of players who rank in the top 20 in both Proximity 200+ and Driving Distance. That’s a lethal combination for a course like Vidanta Vallarta, which funnels so many approach shots beyond 200 yards and features par-5s that are only reachable in two for the longest players in the field. With two top-20s over his last four starts, Mitchell continues to trend upward against a field that lacks proven PGA TOUR winners. 

Taylor Pendrith

My Bet: +3500
Best Available Odds:

Pendrith has quietly put together the most consistent stretch of form out of anyone in the Mexico Open at Vidanta field, piling up five top-15 finishes over his last seven starts. It’s most encouraging to see that Pendrith has contended across a variety of different course setups, as he’s thrived across a diverse list of comp courses that includes Torrey Pines, Port Royal GC, and El Cardinal at Diamonte over this hot stretch.

A bomber with great long-iron metrics and spike-putting upside, Pendrith is a quintessential course fit for Vidanta Vallarta, as he looks to improve on a T30 finish here last year.

Jake Knapp

My Bet: +4500
Best Available Odds:

Like Pendrith, Knapp also checks the box of a bomber in trending form leading in with proven results on comp courses. The PGA TOUR rookie burst onto the scene with a T3 finish at the Farmers Insurance Open, following that up with another impressive T28 at the WM Phoenix Open. Though early into his professional career, Knapp passes the eye test with one of the smoothest swings on TOUR, and has shown the ability to spike in terms of strokes gained throughout his bag. 

This is a relatively short number for a rookie, but there are few other players in this field who are more talented than Knapp.

Carson Young

My Bet: +11000
Best Available Odds:

I don’t love betting longshots in an “opposite field” type of week where the depth of talent drops precipitously after the favorites. But Young appears to be a lone exception to me. He checks the boxes of Course History (T15 at the 2023 Mexico Open), Course Fit (No. 1 in Proximity: 200+), and Recent Form (two top-20s and just one missed cut over his last six starts), so there’s plenty to like about this prolific birdie-maker. 

MEXICO OPEN BETS: FIRST-ROUND LEADER (0.5 UNITS)

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Aaron Rai

My Bet: +6000
Best Available Odds:

Aaron Rai on a bomber’s course is not an ideal recipe for success, but he’s proven up to the task with triumphant first round leads at long courses like Torrey Pines in the past. A trip to Paspalum may be a welcome sight to quell his recent putting woes. 

Jhonattan Vegas

My Bet: +6600
Best Available Odds:

We can count on Jhonattan Vegas to gain strokes ball striking anywhere he goes, especially when facing a comparatively weaker field like we have in store here. He also has shown great splits on Paspalum greens, which will be crucial in getting off to a hot start.

Alejandro Tosti

My Bet: +7000
Best Available Odds:

Doubling down on the Spanish-speaking narrative, Alejandro should have the local crowd on his side and has shown an affinity for wide-open bomber resort courses. Unfortunately, I won’t be able to get the Lady Gaga song out of my head for the rest of the week now.

Carson Young

My Bet: +7500
Best Available Odds:

I’m a fan of Young’s fit for this course beyond what he’s already demonstrated with a T15 in his Mexico Open debut last year. His birdie-making prowess always makes him an appealing FRL consideration.

Vincent Norrman

My Bet: +8000
Best Available Odds:

A winner at the Barbasol Championship last season, Norrman is a bomber who thrives in open and easy conditions. He remains in good ball-striking form leading into this week but will need some help from the flatstick to post a number on Thursday.

MEXICO OPEN BETS: PROPS (2.5 UNITS)

Full Tournament Matchup: Michael Kim > Austin Eckroat

My Bet: -110

This is a model play for me. Back Michael Kim, who ranked No. 10 overall, versus Eckroat, who fell outside the top 30. Kim is the more proven and polished all-around player in this matchup, has the edge in course history, and is more consistent with his ball striking and short game.

Eckroat has shown flashes of elite ball striking early into his career but has recently relied more on his putting to make cuts, which feels less sustainable.

Top-10 Finish: Taylor Pendrith

My Bet: +280
Best Available Odds:

I am 2-for-2 in terms of cashing Pendrith’s placement props this season, so I’ll continue to go back to the well while his form is hot. The recent stretch of play has priced Pendrith out of the top-20 market for me, but I believe he is a clear top-10 talent in this field in an event that has rewarded his skill sets of distance and long-iron proximity.

Top-20 Finish: Carson Young

My Bet: +300
Best Available Odds:

In worse form against a better field, Young was able to place in the top 20 in his 2023 Mexico Open debut. With a little more experience under his belt, I believe Young can channel the same game plan for similar results in 2024.

ONE AND DONE

My Pick: Nicolai Hojgaard

Tony Finau will command some of the highest per-week ownership we see all year in OAD this week. That’s what happens in a field that features one bonafide name-brand player who has finished no worse than T2 in the tournament’s two-year history. I wouldn’t even necessarily say it’s a bad idea to play Tony Finau in OAD this week, given his baseline as one of the worst putters in this field still makes him a presumptive top-10 finisher.

But I’m still chasing an edge early in the OAD season as I’m already playing catch-up, so Hojgaard seems like the sensible pivot. When else would we expect to see Hojgaard open as the second-favorite on the odds board to win a PGA TOUR event? I have no concerns about his form, and the course setup is ideal for his game. 

If not Hojgaard, I would also consider playing Tony Finau or Taylor Pendrith in OAD.

MEXICO OPEN AT VIDANTA: THE BETTING CARD

That’ll do it for this week’s PGA TOUR golf bets. Best of luck this week with your own Mexico Open bets, and see you next Sunday for the Cognizant Classic preview. For more, follow TheLines on Twitter.

MEXICO OPEN AT VIDANTA ODDS

Compare odds before making your PGA TOUR golf bets this week by using the table below. Click the odds to bet now.

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