PGA Tour Golf Best Bets: Mexico Open Final Thoughts, Betting Card, OAD

PGA Tour golf continues, with Vidanta Vallarta next to host the 2025 Mexico Open at Vidanta this Thursday. This week, Akshay Bhatia, Rasmus Hojgaard, and Kurt Kitayama are the favorites among Mexico Open bets. John Haslbauer provides his favorite PGA Tour picks from among all the golf odds offered this week. Below, you’ll find the best odds at legal sports betting sites.

With the California swing behind us, the PGA Tour remains out west, crossing the border to Puerto Vallarta for the 2025 Mexico Open at Vidanta. This fledgling event joined the tour schedule in 2022 and has held its own quite well over its first three years of hosting, imposing a fair test with climactic finishes each year.

We had a successful 2024 Mexico Open at Vidanta, landing on Jake Knapp at 45-1 odds pre-tournament. We’ll follow a similar formula of trending players with plus distance and elite long iron play to hit another Mexico Open outright.

Below, we’ll examine all the bets I’ve placed for the 2025 Mexico Open at Vidanta.

Click on any Mexico Open at Vidanta odds below for the best available prices at sportsbooks in your state. Navigate to my longshots post for more golf DFS picks and considerations.

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HOW I BUILT MY Mexico Open at Vidanta BETTING CARD

Most weeks, I’ll diversify the types of players on my betting card to cover my bases in case the course favors a certain style of player. This week is an exception, however, as we’ve seen the same player style rise to the top of the leaderboard in the first three years on the PGA Tour schedule. I built my betting card around players with elite driving distance, long iron proximity, and proven past results on long, coastal comp courses.

Regarding my exposure this week, it’s back to business as usual for my 2025 Mexico Open at Vidanta betting card.

• Outrights — 3.5U in to pay 25U each
• FRL — 0.5U in to pay out 10U+ each
• Full tournament matchups — 1U in to pay out 2U
• Props — 1.5U in to pay out 3U+ each

Mexico Open at vidanta Bets: OUTRIGHTS (3.5 UNITS)

For PGA Tour DFS picks and longshot bet considerations, check out my golf sleepers for the Mexico Open at Vidanta.

Kurt Kitayama

My bet: +2200
Best available odds: Kurt Kitayama +500000 on DraftKings

It’s not every week I feel this way, but as soon as I finished writing my tournament preview Sunday morning, I knew Kurt Kitayama would be on my betting card. I did think we’d get a slightly better number than this, considering he’s yet to post a finish better than T37 in 2025, but regardless, he is my pick to win the 2025 Mexico Open.

Kitayama fits every stereotype for Vidanta Vallarta. He profiles as an elite ball striker with top-10 ranks in both driving distance and prox: 200+ entering this week. He fell one stroke short of Jon Rahm in his only other appearance at Vidanta in 2022 and won’t have as much competition standing in his way this time around.

Taylor Moore

My bet: +3300
Best available odds: Taylor Moore +500000 on DraftKings

Still one of the most underrated players on tour, Taylor Moore ranks No. 1 in SG: TOT and SG: T2G over the last 16 rounds, with finishes of T9, T22, and T7 over his previous four starts. He may not immediately come to mind as a bomber, but he’s worked well on that part of his game over the past year and now ranks No. 20 in the field in driving distance.

Moore has proven to suit long courses well, with two top-20 finishes in majors last season at Augusta National and Valhalla. He’s a fit for Vidanta Vallarta this week and shows no signs of slowing down.

Alex Smalley

My bet: +4500
Best available odds: Alex Smalley +500000 on DraftKings

I’m trusting my model this week. The same formula led me to 2024 winner Jake Knapp, so I’m happy to back the player who rated out No. 1 overall for me at this price. Smalley has been fantastic on comp courses to Vidanta Vallarta, ranking No. 1 in SG: TOT (long but not difficult courses) and No. 2 in comp course history.

With top-10 ranks in SG: TOT, SG: T2G, SG: OTT, driving distance, and birdie or better percentage, there’s plenty to like about Smalley at this price. He’ll look to build on a T6 finish at this event in 2022 and three top-20 finishes over his first four starts of 2025.

Michael Thorbjornsen

My bet: +6600
Best available odds: Michael Thorbjornsen +500000 on DraftKings

A potential prodigal driver of the golf ball, Michael Thorbjornsen seems to be heading down a career path with a floor of Cameron Champ’s. If those Cameron Champ comps are accurate, then we should expect Thorbjornsen to fare well in his Mexico Open debut, where Champ has finished in the top 25 in all three previous years.

Like Champ, Thorbjornsen can separate from the pack by overpowering courses with his driver, making this 7,500-yard venue feel much more tameable. He joins Kitayama as the only two players to rank top 10 in both driving distance and prox: 200+, the two categories I’m putting the highest weight on in my model this week.

Aldrich Potgieter

My bet: +7500
Best available odds: Aldrich Potgieter +160 on BetMGM

Pure driving distance is an excellent separator at Vidanta Vallarta, and that happens to be the 20-year-old South African’s greatest strength. He ranks No. 1 in the category in this field. It’s no coincidence Potgieter’s best career PGA Tour finish came at Torrey Pines in his latest start at the Farmers Insurance Open, another course that rewards sheer driving distance over precision.

Jake Knapp, Tony Finau, and Jon Rahm all foreshadowed their wins at Vidanta Vallarta with strong prior showings at Torrey Pines, so Potgieter could be next in line if that trend continues.

Matti Schmid

My bet: +11000
Best available odds: Matthias Schmid +500000 on DraftKings

I’ve debated this week whether to pull the trigger on Schmid — a pair of missed cuts in an event as weak as this one is a bit concerning. But as I thought more about it, this is not the type of venue for which to write players off based on course history alone, which makes sense. It lacks any nuance that would require learning it over time.

I see Schmid as extremely due to finding better results at Vidanta. He’s managed to contend at almost every other driver-heavy coastal resort course he’s played. That resume includes top-15 finishes at Corales, Grand Reserve, and Port Royal over the last two seasons, so I’m happy to buy low on the course profile fit and comp course history here.

Hayden Springer

My bet: +12500
Best available odds: Hayden Springer +500000 on DraftKings

I don’t know what it is about Hayden Springer, but I always see myself backing him at 100-1+ odds on these long, scoreable venues. With four top-10 finishes on driver-heavy courses over his last 15 starts, he’s not given me any reason to stop now.

Springer rates out well in my model this week at No. 19 overall, with top-20 ranks in the key categories of driving distance, comp course history, par-5 scoring, and SG: TOT (long but not very difficult courses).

Mexico OPEN at Vidanta Bets: FIRST-ROUND LEADER (0.5 UNITS)

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Aaron Rai

My bet: +4500
Best available odds: Aaron Rai +60000 on DraftKings

I hate betting anyone below 50-1 odds in the FRL market, but of course, for Aaron Rai, I’ll always make an exception. Rai is not a very popular name this week, as he doesn’t quite fit the bomber narrative. However, he can make up for that quickly as he is one of the top long iron players in this field.

Alex Smalley

My bet: +5000
Best available odds: Alex Smalley +60000 on DraftKings

I have some questions about Alex Smalley’s ability to close a golf tournament on Sunday, but that might be my only reservation about him heading into this week. Smalley is a proven birdie-maker in easier scoring conditions and has the distance and approach upside to generate ample scoring opportunities at Vidanta.

Alejandro Tosti

My bet: +8000
Best available odds: Alejandro Tosti +6000 on FanDuel

I wanted more exposure to Tosti this week, as the course is a picture-perfect setup to cater to his skill sets. However, it’s hard to trust he can contend throughout the week with just one made cut over his last seven starts. I’ll only embrace the volatility and chase his upside in the FRL market this week.

Hayden Springer

My bet: +9000
Best available odds: Hayden Springer +7000 on FanDuel

Hayden Springer has fired a 59 on the PGA Tour once before at the 2024 John Deere Classic, which means there’s always reason to believe he can go low again in any given round. Springer is an ideal course fit for Vidanta Vallarta and has shown great form on driver-heavy courses in recent weeks.

Matti Schmid

My bet: +9000
Best available odds: Matti Schmid +9000 on Sports Interaction

Fitting the bomber narrative of my overall card, I like how this course sets up for the longest hitters with the best chance of reaching these par 5s and certain driveable par 4s in two. Schmid has had an up-and-down start to 2025, but I’m comfortable chasing the upside in the FRL market.

Mexico OPEN at Vidanta Bets: PROPS (2.5 UNITS)

Full Tournament Matchup: Patrick Rodgers > Sam Stevens

My bet: -110
Best available odds: Patrick Rodgers -110 on BetMGM

I’ve believed in Sam Stevens for a while now, but Vidanta Vallarta is the house Patrick Rodgers built. Although he may be disappointed to leave Torrey Pines still searching for his first PGA Tour win, there’s no doubt that Rodgers’ game is in peak form. He now comes to a comfort course in Vidanta Vallarta, finishing in the top 10 in all three prior appearances.

With both players entering this event in promising form, I have to side with the course history leader in this toss-up matchup.

Top-20 Finish: Matti Schmid

My bet: +360
Best available odds: Matthias Schmid +30000 on DraftKings

The fall swing ended at the wrong time for Schmid, who was starting to percolate with three straight top-16 finishes before the turn of the year. Since then, he’s been slow to regain his footing but looked to have found something with a T25 at the Farmers Insurance Open two starts ago. The recent form and course history may not show it, but Schmid’s comp course history and overall profile suggest he is due for better results this week.

Top-20 Finish: Hayden Springer

My bet: +360
Best available odds: Hayden Springer +1600 on DraftKings

Prior performance at Torrey Pines has proven to be a strong indicator of future success at Vidanta Vallarta. So, I’m encouraged by Springer’s sixth-place finish at the Farmers Insurance Open. He has the distance to generate ample birdie opportunities here and was solid in his Mexico Open debut with a T38 finish.

One And Done

My pick: Kurt Kitayama

I often list a few different player considerations and processes behind player selection when discussing OAD. But in this case, there is only one option I would consider for the Mexico Open: Kurt Kitayama.

Kitayama will likely not be shorter than 22-1 odds for the rest of this season. With his elite distance and ball striking, he has the ideal player profile to attack this course. He finished T2 in his only other appearance at this event and is due for a breakout performance soon.

Mexico open at vidanta: THE BETTING CARD

That’ll do it for this week’s PGA Tour golf bets. Best of luck this week with your own Mexico Open at Vidanta bets. See you next Sunday for the Cognizant Classic preview. For more, follow TheLines on Twitter.

mexico OPEN at vidanta ODDS

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