The stage is set for the 2023 Mexico Open at Vidanta, and all we can do now is hope and pray that Jon Rahm offers mercy to the rest of his competitors, many still chasing their first career PGA TOUR win. It’s not a very comfortable week to bet with such a talent disparity at the top, but there’s still plenty of value to exploit. Let’s get to my final Mexico Open bets. Click the odds anywhere in this article to place Mexico Open bets.
For a full breakdown of the tournament and course, visit my Mexico Open preview.
HOW I BUILT MY MEXICO OPEN BETTING CARD
The easiest way to handicap the Mexico Open at Vidanta Vallarta is simply to identify the longest drivers who are also proficient on approaches from 200+ yards and have shown proven results on other comp long, windy, coastal resort courses. While it’s not the most groundbreaking betting card, there’s always room to differentiate for the sake of differentiating in DFS.
In terms of unit allocations for my card this week, it’s back to business as usual for Mexico Open bets.
- Outrights – 3U in to pay 24U each
- FRL – 0.5U in to pay out 10U+ each
- Props – 3U in to pay out 3U+ each
Click on any of the odds below for Mexico Open bets and the best available prices across legal sportsbooks in your state.
MEXICO OPEN BETS: OUTRIGHTS (3 UNITS)
Wyndham Clark
My Bet: +2200
Best Available Odds:
What do you do when the two favorites are shorter than 8-1 odds? Take the third best option! I don’t know if that actually checks out logically, but it’s naturally how I went about filling out my outright card in a week where Jon Rahm and Tony Finau were simply posted at impossible to bet numbers.
Over the last 12 rounds, Clark actually narrowly edges past Rahm as the No. 1 player in SG: TOT. Although he’s still chasing his first career win, the experience of being in contention with three top-six finishes over his last four starts should only help him get closer to that goal.
Clark is an ideal course fit for Vidanta Vallarta, and is No. 3 in my model behind the “Big Two,” ranking top 10 in Driving Distance, SG: APP, SG: T2G, and Birdie or Better Gained.
Gary Woodland
My Bet: +3000
Best Available Odds:
Woodland is unsurprisingly one of the most popularly bet players this week. He is appropriately priced in the mid-twenties of the odds board and in a field so bereft of win equity, the 2019 U.S. Open champion logically poses the greatest threat to Jon Rahm and Tony Finau.
Woodland passes the eye test for what Vidanta Vallarta demands. He fits as a bomber proficient with his irons who can hit low-flighted approaches beneath these gusting winds and meet with a little less resistance putting on these grainless Paspalum greens. He ranks No. 10 in my model and should contend if he can get anything out of his putter.
Nicolai Hojgaard
My Bet: +3300
Best Available Odds:
I think I’m now stuck just always betting on Hojgaard until he inevitably wins a PGA TOUR event. The 22-year-old from Denmark has a limited sample size to measure from a strokes gained standpoint. But, five top-15 finishes and zero missed cuts over his first 10 starts of the year across the DP World Tour and PGA TOUR is enough to be taken seriously. Hojgaard came up one stroke shy of capturing his first career PGA TOUR win at the Corales Puntacana Championship, but the second place finish remains an encouraging sign that this first-year PGA TOUR player can compete on a long, windy, Paspalum course. Profiling as a bomber with spike putting upside, Vidanta Vallarta appears an ideal course setup for Hojgaard’s game.
Matt Wallace
My Bet: +7500
Best Available Odds:
One stroke better than Hojgaard at the Corales Puntacana Championship was Matt Wallace. So, for the same reasons I’m bullish on Hojgaard, I can’t help but feel the same level of confidence in Wallace at more than double the odds. Wallace’s game is best suited to long, open courses that allow him to lean on his distance and get away with some erratic tee shots. For that reason, I’m content to overlook a MC at a positional course like Harbour Town and hop on the discounted odds following finishes of T28, first, and T7 in his three starts prior. Wallace ranks No. 7 in my model this week and joins Rahm, Finau, and Clark as the only four players to rank above average in SG: APP, SG: Short Game, Driving Distance, Comp Course History, and Birdies or Better Gained.
Charley Hoffman
My Bet: +15000
Best Available Odds:
With three top-22 finishes over his last seven starts, Hoffman’s game is beginning to return to the caliber of play we saw from him in the middle of the 2021 season. Then, he peaked at OWGR No. 57. From a Ball Striking standpoint, Hoffman is a great value at 150-1 outright odds. He ranks 12th in SG: APP, 10th in SG: Ball Striking, and sixth in Proximity 200+. Hoffman has been at his best on long golf courses throughout his career. So, if his putter can show any signs of life, the rest of his game from tee-to-green looks well positioned to attack Vidanta Vallarta.
MEXICO OPEN FIRST ROUND LEADER BETS (0.5 UNITS)
Emiliano Grillo
My Bet: +6000
Best Available Odds:
Playing Grillo on a coastal resort is always a good idea, as the Argentinian has proven to play at his best when winds pick up. He’s drawn a favorable morning tee time on Thursday and looks to be turning a corner on the greens, gaining strokes putting in three consecutive measured events.
Aaron Rai
My Bet: +6000
Best Available Odds:
Aaron Rai nearly single-handedly took down the first round lead at last week’s Zurich Classic, shooting -9 on his own and falling one stroke shy (thanks for nothing, David Lipsky!). He’s absolved any doubt as to whether we should blindly back him every Thursday at this point.
Dylan Wu
My Bet: +8000
Best Available Odds:
While not the ideal bomber profile I would’ve expected myself to target for a FRL at Vidanta Vallarta, Wu fits the profile well to go low here. He ranks top-10 in both Prox: 200+ and Birdies or Better Gained. One of my favorite DFS plays this week, I expect Wu to navigate this course well.
Nate Lashley
My Bet: +9000
Best Available Odds:
Nate Lashley was on my outright card at the 2022 Mexico Open and looked solid throughout with a T11 finish. Always a threat on these coastal layouts, Lashley ranks No. 3 in terms of Comp Course History, most recently going low at the 2023 Puerto Rico Open for a T3 finish.
Brent Grant
My Bet: +12500
Best Available Odds:
You can always count on finding Brent Grant at the bottom of the FRL odds board. But, given his aggressive style of play, this is the market in which he’s most viable. Grant earned a share of the first round lead at the 2023 Farmers Insurance Open and is the only player in this field to rank top 15 in Prox 200+, Driving Distance, and Birdies or Better Gained.
MEXICO OPEN PROPS (3 UNITS)
Top-40 Finish: Dylan Wu
My Bet: +135
Best Available Odds:
It’s a tricky week to bet the top-20 market with much conviction considering the lack of depth in this field. But, I feel very comfortable about this number for Dylan Wu in the top-40 market. Wu enters this week on streak of seven consecutive made cuts in standard stroke play events, with five top-40 finishes over that span. He finished T4 at the Korn Ferry Tour’s Mexico Championship in 2020 and his elite skillsets with his long irons and birdie-making should lead to a high floor against this relatively weak field.
Top-40 Finish: Brent Grant
My Bet: +200
Best Available Odds:
Vidanta Vallarta’s generous fairways and sheer overall length provide the ideal fit for Grant to attack. His aggression has led to some volatile recent results, but his elite metrics off-the-tee and in long par-5 scoring make for appealing discounted odds for a top-40 finish.
Top-20 Finish: Matt Wallace
My Bet: +280
Best Available Odds:
I’m happy to buy low on Matt Wallace here after a couple of forgettable showings at the RBC Heritage and Zurich Classic. Wallace is just four starts removed from winning the Corales Puntacana Championship, a close comp course to Vidanta Vallarta which requires many of the same golf shots. Wallace is a better talent than those priced around him in this range of the top-20 market, and has shown recently that he has the game to contend on this style of course.
ONE AND DONE
My Pick: Gary Woodland
I do still have Jon Rahm at my disposal this late into this season, but given the smaller purse at stake, I’m going to continue to pause on deploying him until the PGA Championship, the Memorial, or U.S. Open. Even second place finishes there would pay out more than a Mexico Open win. Instead, I’m content to double down on my Spotlight Player of the Week, who sensibly checks every box you’d want at the Mexico Open. This feels like a safe and chalky selection, but I’m fairly confident there is no better time than now to use Woodland in OAD.
If not Woodland, I would also consider Tony Finau, Nicolai Hojgaard, and Patrick Rodgers as OAD picks.
MEXICO OPEN: THE BETTING CARD
That’ll do it for this week’s Mexico Open bets. Best of luck this week with your own Mexico Open bets, and see you next week for the Wells Fargo Championship! For more, follow TheLines on Twitter.
MEXICO OPEN BETS: ODDS TO WIN
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