My 2022 Mexico Open at Vidanta Betting Card And Final Thoughts

Written By John Haslbauer on April 27, 2022
mexico open bets

After a week of prepping and speculation over what to expect from this inaugural event, the Mexico Open at Vidanta is finally here. Below you’ll find all the Mexico Open bets I’ve placed personally.

This week all boils down to how intimidated we’re supposed to feel by the presence of former world no. 1 Jon Rahm, who is winless over the last 10 months and is without a T10 finish in his last four starts. As you might be able to tell, I’m not afraid to back the field versus Jon Rahm and take advantage of the odds premiums with sportsbooks hanging all the win equity on the Spaniard. I’ll live with the consequences if he does decide to end his winning drought this week.

Click on the odds below if you’d like to add my 2022 Mexico Open at Vidanta bets as well.

J. Rahm
Bet now
+350
Bet now
+450
Bet now
+450
G. Woodland
Bet now
+2000
Bet now
+2400
Bet now
+2200
A. Ancer
Bet now
+2000
Bet now
+1500
Bet now
+1600
T. Finau
Bet now
+2500
Bet now
+2100
Bet now
+2000
K. Na
Bet now
+2000
Bet now
+2400
Bet now
+2800

HOW I BUILT MY MEXICO OPEN BETS

It’s not a visionary or groundbreaking take, but I want players who are elite in both driving distance and approach this week. As an added bonus, I also looked for players with the best comp course history on other Paspalum island/resort courses and easy, birdie fest conditions. That ends up casting a fairly wide net, so I ultimately chased players further down the board who fit this profile at longer odds to maximize value on the betting card. Though not officially on the card, I must let it be known that I have placed a $1 wager on the Mexican sensation Isidro Benitez to win outright at 1000-1 odds. I tried to resist, but just couldn’t handle the FOMO if he were to post another 58 in Mexico.

In terms of unit allocation, it’s same old, same old for outrights (3U in to pay 24U each), props (3U in to pay out 3U+ each) and FRL (0.5U in to pay out 10U+).

MEXICO OPEN BETS: OUTRIGHTS (3 UNITS)

Gary Woodland

My Bet: +2800

Best Odds Still Available:

My first bet of the week for this event was Daniel Berger on Monday morning at 18-1 odds. In a mad dash after he withdrew, the natural pivot was to shift ten points up the board to Gary Woodland at 28-1 odds. With Berger removed from this field, Woodland is the clear second best player in this field according to my key stats model. With three top-10 finishes in his last five starts, there’s an easy case to be made that Woodland’s recent form is the best in this field entering the Mexico Open. Among Mexico Open bets, 28-1 odds sounds like a pretty great value to me.

Tony Finau

My Bet: +3000

Best Odds Still Available:

If Gary Woodland is the second best player in the field, I’d also go as far as to say Tony Finau slots in as the clear third best player at the Mexico Open. It’s not every day you can fit the second and third best player in the field onto a fairly long card, but Rahm’s unprecedently short odds have set us up for some unique card construction. Finau is on a list of players who have won more recently than Jon Rahm, and also carries a win at the top comp course to Vidanta Vallarta with his 2016 Puerto Rico Open victory. Like the Puerto Rico Open, the wide open Paspalum fairways at Vidanta Vallarta will favor the players with the longest carry distance and best approach games, which are the two things Finau has consistently delivered at an elite level. He joins Jon Rahm as the only two players in this field to rank top-10 in SG: T2G , SG: APP, and Prox 200+.

Matt Jones

My Bet: +6500

Best Odds Still Available:

You could not draw up a better course fit than Vidanta Vallarta for Matt Jones. As a player who wastes no time stepping up to the tee and smacking long drives at the expense of accuracy, these gargantuan fairways should be a welcomed site for 2021 Honda Classic champion. The last time Jones was on a resort course with fairways this wide, he carded a -32 at the Sentry Tournament of Champions, good enough for a third place finish. If you can shoot -32 in any circumstances, I’m going to like your chances in this expected birdie fest. Now coming in hot off a runner up finish on another longer Greg Norman course at the Valero Texas Open in his previous start, Jones is one of my favorite values on the board, and should be poised to stay hot in these easy conditions.

Scott Stallings

My Bet: +8000

Best Odds Still Available:

The Spotlight player of the week did in fact catch a drift on the odds board after his MC at the RBC Heritage in his previous start. Regardless, Stallings has recorded T20 finishes at the Valspar and Valero in his two prior starts, so I’m not hitting the panic button after one poor showing on a bad course fit. Let’s also not overlook this “V” trend. Valspar, Valero, Vidanta. Another high finish just feels inevitable from that perspective.

Alex Smalley

My Bet: +10000

Best Odds Still Available:

Alex Smalley was the last man on my card this week, which has actually been a pretty good omen in 2022. He has impeccable history in his short career on island resort courses with four T25 finishes at the Corales and Bermuda Championship over the last three years. At Corales specifically, he just fired a career best T2 finish three starts ago, so he should welcome a return to another Paspalum resort course. Smalley is a long hitter, and ranks top-30 in the key stat categories of Driving Distance, SG T2G (Long Courses), SG: TOT (Easy Scoring Conditions), Prox 200+, and Comp Course History. Combine that altogether, and he profiles as no. 11 in my model this week, and a great value at 100-1 odds.

Nate Lashley

My Bet: +15000

Best Odds Still Available:

Speaking of comp course history, Nate Lashley comes alive in this coastal resort conditions. In seven career appearances at Corales and the Puerto Rico Open, Lashley has finished worse the T28 only once; those finishes include three T10s. His current form is also heating up with four T30s in his last five starts, so he’s worth a gamble at 150-1 odds.

Patrick Rodgers

My Bet: +15000

Best Odds Still Available:

I like Patrick Rodgers for many of the same reasons as Matt Jones, so he’s hard for me to pass up at nearly triple the odds of Jones. Rodgers has been bleeding strokes off the tee over the last couple months, entirely due to his lack of accuracy. He does, however, rank 12th in this field in Driving Distance, so if these fairways are as generous as they’re reported to be, Rodgers will be in prime position to gain strokes off the tee with his sheer distance alone. Unlike the other longshot bombers in this field, Rodgers is a very capable putter. He has the potential to score on this course, he just needs to piece four rounds together.

Joseph Bramlett

My Bet: +20000

Best Odds Still Available:

Bramlett is no. 1 in this field in carry distance off the tee, so on this course which should assuredly favor the longest hitters with little rollout on the fairways, he was a blind auto-bet at lofty 200-1 odds. In addition to the driving prowess, Bramlett’s also no. 6 in this field in Comp Course History with five T30 finishes across the Byron Nelson, Puerto Rico Open, Corales, and Palmetto since 2020. Combine that with ranks of 30th SG: APP and 12th Prox 200+, and Bramlett rates out 8th overall in my model, a slam dunk at 200-1 odds.

FIRST-ROUND LEADER (0.5 UNITS)

Sebastian Munoz

My Bet: +4200

Best Odds Still Available:

We are baaaaaaack! After a one month hiatus, Sebastian Munoz has returned to PGA TOUR action to provide a Thursday sweat. Unfortunately this is the shortest FRL odds we’ve ever seen him post at, but on the bright side, it’s also the most likely opportunity he’ll have to cash a FRL all season versus this field.

Nate Lashley

My Bet: +10000

Best Odds Still Available:

I fully expected Lashley to open around the 50-1 odds range given his string of recent results, particularly on comp courses. If the books don’t see it that way, I’m happy to double down on Lashley in the FRL market, who has the distance to generate ample scoring opportunities and ability to catch a hot putter.

Patrick Rodgers

My Bet: +10000

Best Odds Still Available:

You will usually find Patrick Rodgers on my FRL card any time we play a long, open, and easy course. It’s a great course fit this week, so to me it’s not a matter of if he can go low here, it’ll just come down to whether he can do so for four full rounds. Here’s hoping for a hot start on Thursday for PRodge.

Danny Lee

My Bet: +10000

Best Odds Still Available:

We at the Danny Lee-gion will not sleep until our man finally pulls through to cash a FRL. He is your quintessential FRL candidate, as he ranks no. 2 in Birdie or Better Gained, but is always a risk to survive for four rounds of golf, whether it be from a MC, DQ, or WD. With wide open fairways and a fairly easy course layout, that should help Lee mitigate the blow-up holes that would otherwise derail a FRL bid.

Follow TheLines on Twitter

PROPS (3 UNITS)

Top-20 Finish: Gary Woodland

My Bet: +115

Best Odds Still Available:

Ryan Palmer made a concerted effort to thwart last week’s conviction T20 play at the Zurich Classic, but considering the absence of any viable opposition in this week’s field, I’m feeling far more confident in Gary Woodland’s prospects to cash this week’s conviction bet.

Woodland’s trending perfectly at the moment with four T20s in his last six starts. The two occasions in which he did not finish T20 were at THE PLAYERS in freak weather conditions and at The Masters where he finished dead last in the field in SG: Putting. Vidanta Vallarta should reward Woodland’s combination of Driving Distance and Proximity from 200+, so he sets up well to contend come Sunday.

Top-20 Finish: Patrick Rodgers

My Bet: +450

Best Odds Still Available:

In the event that Jon Rahm decides to step on the gas and dominate this event in the way he should, I want some cushion on the value players I still expect to play well, if that outright opportunity is taken away. I expect Rodgers to make a ton of birdies this week, and like the value of +450 odds against this field for a T20.

Top-20 Finish: Joseph Bramlett

My Bet: +500

Best Odds Still Available:

Like Rodgers, Bramlett has the skillsets needed to hang around the top of the leaderboard on this course. Unlike Rodgers, Bramlett actually has repeated and recent top-20 success on comp island courses, so I feel optimistic about his placing prospects at even longer odds.

Top-20 Finish: Wyndham Clark

My Bet: +550

Best Odds Still Available:

I wasn’t going to  go out of my way to play Wyndham Clark this week. However, he obviously fits the same overarching theme of bombers who can putt well and take advantage of easy scoring conditions. Ultimately, I only decided to place this bet because it was a miss-price compared to the rest of the marketplace which values a Clark T20 at around +300. 

ONE AND DONE

My Pick: Matt Jones

This is not a week I want to use any top-tier or popular players in OAD. There’s just so much randomness in store on a course we’ve never seen tournament play on before, especially if it goes on to be a pure birdie fest and putting contest. I know for sure that I won’t be using Matt Jones in any other event for the rest of this year, and at 65-1 odds, he’s not a player I anticipate many others jumping to play. It’s a perfect course fit for him, especially if winds pick up at all, so I expect him to hang around through Sunday.

If not Jones, I would also consider Gary Woodland, Aaron Wise, and Cameron Tringale this week.

The Betting Card: Mexico Open Bets

mexico open bets

That’ll do it for the Mexico Open bets. Best of luck this week, see you on Sunday for the 2022 Wells Fargo Championship at TPC Potomac Preview!

RANK
OPERATOR
BONUS
INFO
ACTION
2
UP TO $1,250
On Caesars
Up to $1,250 On Caesars
+ get 1,000 Caesars Reward Credits 
+ also get 1,000 Tier Credits 
Redeem for free bets, hotel stays, & more!
Use Promo Code: LEGALFULL
5
$1,000
No Sweat First Bet
Up to $1,000 No Sweat First Bet
Available on iOS, Android & Desktop
To Claim: Click Bet Now
7
$100
Risk Free Bet
Exclusive Offer:
$100 Risk Free Bet
Use Promo Code: BETBONUS

John Haslbauer Avatar
Written by
John Haslbauer

John Haslbauer writes about golf betting and advanced golf metrics for TheLines.com. He is a passionate golf fan, golf writer, and (casual) golfer. A graduate at Syracuse University, John works out of Jersey City as a Director of Media Strategy for HBO and HBO Max. He created the website thepgatout.com at the start of 2021 and is active on Twitter (@PGATout). No, he is not a tout. The Twitter handle is a joke. Touts are lame. We hate touts.

View all posts by John Haslbauer