Coast To Coast: Big Market Mets, Yankees and Dodgers All Unsurprisingly Making Waves In MLB Futures Markets

Posted By Juan Carlos Blanco on July 8, 2020
Mets Yankees Dodgers Pete Alonso MLB sports betting

Irrespective of the brevity and unusual conditions of the still-hopeful-to-happen 2020 MLB season, one thing is certain – the Bronx Bombers are darlings of both oddsmakers and the public.

A snapshot of MLB handle and team-based futures odds across some of the US’s leading regulated sportsbooks reveals the New York Yankees unsurprisingly carry sky-high expectations into the upcoming 60-game regular-season sprint and subsequent postseason.

New York and the Los Angeles Dodgers remain in a fluid situation atop the World Series futures leaderboards.

LA, which claims star outfielder and perennial MVP candidate Mookie Betts as its top offseason acquisition, is the slim odds-on favorite over the Yanks to win it all as summer camps begin across baseball. However, they’re clearly behind their potential World Series foes when it comes to the betting realm.

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World Series odds 2020

World Series Winner

LA Dodgers
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+375
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+400
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+380
NY Yankees
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+400
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+430
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+380
Houston
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+800
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+900
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+800
Atlanta
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+1300
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+1400
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+1300
Minnesota
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+1600
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+1500
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+1500
Tampa Bay
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+1800
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+1500
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+1800
Washington
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+1900
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+1650
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+1800
NY Mets
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+2000
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+1900
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+2200
Chicago Cubs
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+2200
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+2600
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+2200
Philadelphia
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+2200
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+2500
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+2200
St. Louis
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+2200
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+2600
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+2200
Chicago WS
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+2400
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+3300
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+3000
Cincinnati
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+2500
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+2500
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+2800
Cleveland
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+2500
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+2000
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+2200
Oakland
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+2500
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+2500
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+2200
LA Angels
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+3500
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+3500
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+4000
Milwaukee
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+3500
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+3500
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+4000
Boston
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+4000
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+4300
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+4000
San Diego
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+4500
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+4600
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+5000
Arizona
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+5000
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+3500
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+5000
Texas
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+8000
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+5500
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+8000
Toronto
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+8000
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+6500
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+10000
Pittsburgh
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+10000
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+14000
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+25000
Colorado
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+12500
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+14000
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+17500
SF Giants
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+15000
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+30000
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+30000
Kansas City
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+30000
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+30000
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+50000
Miami
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+30000
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+30000
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+75000
Baltimore
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+40000
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+30000
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+75000
Detroit
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+40000
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+30000
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+75000
Seattle
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+50000
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+16000
Bet now
+50000

Yankees and Dodgers: The Big 2

The fact Aaron Boone’s crew will be down two quality starting pitchers in Luis Severino (elbow) and Domingo German (suspension) for the entirety of 2020 and slugger Aaron Judge is still recovering from a rib injury clearly isn’t fazing bettors.

The Yankees, which made plenty of winter noise in their own right by scoring top free agent Gerrit Cole, are comfortably lapping the field in both handle and bet percentage when it comes to World Series futures:

Those figures are in interesting contrast to those of the Dodgers. Despite their aforementioned status as WS favorites, LA is a distant second or worse in terms of wagering action to the team they’re projected to defeat for the 2020 championship.:

  • DraftKings Sportsbook: 6% of handle (4th)/ 11% of bets (2nd)
  • PointsBet Sportsbook: 13% of bets (2nd)

Mets also catching the eye of bettors

It’s worth noting the Big Apple’s “other” team is seeing its fair share of interest as well.

The cross-town rival Mets won’t have Noah Syndergaard in 2020 following his Tommy John surgery. However, they’ll reintegrate a healthy and reportedly invigorated Yoenis Cespedes to a lineup that already includes Michael Conforto, Pete Alonso and Jeff McNeil.

Consequently, New York is seeing the second-most WS futures handle (11%) and third-highest percentage of bets (6%) at DK Sportsbook. Over at PointsBet, Luis Rojas’ club is clocking the third-highest bet count (9%) behind the Yanks and Dodgers.

At FanDuel Sportsbook, the Yankees rank at the top in handle across all team-based futures.

Here, too, the Mets check in as runner-ups. Their NL East mates – a Phillies squad with a pitching staff set to be helmed by Aaron Nola and offseason arrival/former Met Zack Wheeler — follow in the No. 3 spot.

The defending division-champion Braves are seeing the fourth-most action at FD. However, the status of Freddie Freeman, who qualifies as one of the most prominent players to test positive for COVID-19 thus far, naturally has a direct correlation to Atlanta’s overall outlook. The decision of key veteran Nick Markakis to sit out the 2020 campaign for precautionary reasons also dampens the Braves’ prospects to an extent.

Teams of least betting interest include pair of outliers

The opposite end of the handle/bet count spectrum features some mostly expected names.

At PointsBet, the Diamondbacks, Rockies, Rangers, Pirates, Giants and Mariners are all accounting for less than 1 percent of WS futures bets. Meanwhile, the Marlins are bringing up the rear on overall team-based futures at FD Sportsbook.

None of those teams are particularly surprising qualifiers for bottom-of-the-barrel status. Bettors’ dim view on those clubs mirrors their consensus 2020 expectations. With the exception of the D-Backs, the remainder are likely to finish with sub.-.500 marks.

However, Miami is rather surprisingly joined at the bottom of the FD Sportsbook action heap by the Milwaukee Brewers.

While the Brew Crew may not duplicate or exceed last season’s 54.9% win rate in the coming season, they’re far from likely cellar dwellers. Former MVP Christian Yelich returns at full health, while offseason arrivals Avisail Garcia, Justin Smoak and Ryon Healy all have the pop to make up for the departure of Mike Moustakas, who defected to the division-rival Reds.

Operators offering full menu of futures for truncated season

As customary, sportsbooks are also offering a robust array of other team-based and player-based futures ahead of Opening Day.

Examples of such wagers available at multiple regulated operators include:

Kevin Hennessey, Director of Publicity for FanDuel Sportsbook, notes the Yankees don’t quite enjoy the same level of dominance in at least one player-based category, although they certainly have a presence.

The Angels are the team with a veritable lock on the upper echelon of the AL MVP market at FD. Given the offseason addition of Anthony Rendon to a lineup with a couple of other elite talents, that’s not entirely surprising:

AL MVP top 5 by handle at FD Sportsbook:

  • Anthony Rendon
  • Mike Trout
  • Shoehi Ohtani
  • Gleyber Torres
  • Aaron Judge

Then, despite their bleak team-based outlook, the Rockies aren’t entirely devoid of offensive talent. One of their biggest stars may not even finish the coming season in Colorado, but for the moment, Nolan Arenado is the bettors’ top choice to garner what would be his first NL MVP award:

NL MVP Top 5 by handle at FD Sportsbook:

  • Nolan Arenado
  • Fernando Tatis, Jr.
  • Javier Baez
  • Bryce Harper
  • Juan Soto

Some embracing risk in unprecedented season

And then there are the longshots.

The combination of an appealing price and a belief a team may generally be undervalued is always a recipe for some potentially large underdog bets before a season kicks off.

The first-of-its-kind 2020 campaign is no exception. In fact, the argument in some circles is that a season with a much smaller sample size, expanded rosters for the first half, and the possibility of some elite teams losing star players to COVID-19 infection for multiple weeks generates the ideal environment for rolling the dice even more than usual.

Patrick Eichner of PointsBet Sportsbook points out that the operator’s biggest cumulative liability currently rests on the Blue Jays and Royals, in that order. The two squads combined for a 126-198 record in 2019 and carry respective World Series winner odds of +10000 and +30000.

The Jays certainly have better projections on paper after inking pitchers Hyun-Jin Ryu and Tanner Roark this offseason to spearhead a revamped rotation. Toronto also boasts a lineup that includes the burgeoning bats of Vladimir Guerrero and Bo Bichette. Yet they’re still viewed as a tier below the Yankees, Red Sox and Rays in their own division.

Meanwhile, KC is still very likely to be in dire straits after not making any appreciable changes from last season’s 103-loss squad. Even the projected return of Salvador Perez after a missed 2019 is now temporarily marred by a positive COVID-19 test.

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Written by
Juan Carlos Blanco

Juan Carlos Blanco has served as a freelance writer for a wide variety of online publications and websites, with an intensive focus on fantasy sports. Juan has provided analysis and comprehensive coverage of the MLB, NBA, NFL, CFL, AAF and AFL while also reporting on news and developments in the daily fantasy sports and online gaming industries.

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