NBA Western Conference Finals Odds: Mavericks – Timberwolves Game 4 Picks, Expert Predictions

Before the Western Conference Finals began, the Minnesota Timberwolves odds were set at -190 to advance to the biggest stage. But the Mavericks have won the first three games and are one victory away from taking on the Eastern Conference champion Boston Celtics in the NBA Finals. Here’s my pick for NBA playoffs odds between Minnesota and Dallas.

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timberwolves ODDS & GAME 4 BETTING PREDICTIONS

For some perspective, teams have gone 155-0 when taking a 3-0 series lead in a best-of-seven NBA playoff series. Nevertheless, 15 of those series reached a Game 6, and four teams have forced a winner-take-all scenario by winning three straight games.

Just last year, the aforementioned Celtics forced a Game 7 after faltering in the first three games of the Eastern Conference Finals to the eighth-seeded Miami Heat. However, Miami won the series finale in Boston as a 7.5-point underdog.

Often, the underdog receives a dose of positive variance when jumping out to a 3-0 cushion. Miami was no exception, manufacturing a 58.8% clip on 34 wide-open 3-pointers with at least six feet of space during the first three games. Conversely, Boston generated a 32.6% clip (on 43 attempts) in those situations. Once both teams regressed in opposite directions, the Celtics evened the score.

Similarly, the Mavericks have tallied an eFG% of 58.1% in this series — juxtaposed with an expected eFG% of 53%. Granted, Luka Dončić and Kyrie Irving are two of the league’s premier closers. They’ve canned slightly -EV shots at an above-average clip historically. The Heat lacked known commodities with that level of pedigree.

Meanwhile, the Timberwolves have failed to hit critical shots in crunch time, especially from deep. Overall, they’ve converted the same percentage of wide-open triples as last season’s Celtics over the first three games of the conference finals. In particular, Karl Anthony-Towns has delivered on just 11.8% of his above-the-break 3-point shots. For Chris Finch’s unit to force a Game 5 in Minneapolis, it must cash in on open looks.

Moreover, Anthony Edwards and Towns must close the gap in star power. So far, Dončić and Irving have combined for 60.4 PPG — 23.4 PPG more than Minnesota’s duo.

Related: NBA Finals Odds

Mavs’ Injury To Monitor

Dallas rookie center Dereck Lively II (neck) is listed as doubtful for Tuesday’s Game 4, but stretch four-man Maxi Kleber (shoulder) may return to the rotation. Kleber hasn’t suited up since playing five minutes in the first-round series clincher versus the Clippers.

Remember that Dallas opened as a three-point home favorite despite Lively, the fifth-best player in overall plus-minus this postseason, likely unavailable. In Game 3, the Mavs closed as 1.5-point favorites with Lively active.

When Lively left Game 3, starting five-man Daniel Gafford earned a series-high 29 minutes after tallying 21 in the first two games. Even though Gafford has compiled nine blocks in the series, the Timberwolves’ efficiency near the rim could rise in Lively’s absence. They’ve accrued a 36.2% clip in the paint (non-restricted area) after cashing in on 41.7% of their attempts in that vicinity against the Nuggets.

Betting Pick For Timberwolves Odds

I’m willing to bet on shooting regression for both teams, with Lively presumably out. As of this publishing, the best Timberwolves odds against the spread are . If you expect the same, you can wager on the duration and winner of the series below.

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