How Often Do Golf Betting Favorites In Sportsbook Odds Win The Masters?
It is Masters week, and the best golfers in the world will be heading to Augusta National to compete for a purse of $18 million. Masters betting will feature the heaviest golf action of the year, with Scottie Scheffler being a substantial favorite (and even shorter in Masters odds on other sports betting apps). This is the biggest favorite we’ve seen in Augusta since the prime of Tiger Woods. But is betting The Masters favorite each year a winning strategy? The answer, in recent years, has been a resounding no.
2024 Masters Betting Favorites
Top of The Odds Board A Bad Masters Bet Over The Years
Since 2014, there have been 15 Masters betting favorites and co-favorites. According to BetMGM, those top choices in the odds have won zero green jackets. Zilch. Nada.
When Is The Last Time The Favorite Has Won The Masters?
Tiger Woods has won The Masters five times (1997, 2001, 2002, 2005, 2019), and a favorite has not won the green jacket since The Big Cat in 2005 at around +350 odds.
Results Of Masters Favorites Since 2014
BetMGM – Favorites Masters Odds History
| YEAR | FAVORITE | ODDS | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2014 | Rory McIlroy* | +1000 | T-8 |
| 2014 | Adam Scott* | +1000 | T-14 |
| 2015 | Rory McIlroy | +650 | 4th |
| 2016 | Rory McIlroy | +800 | T-10 |
| 2017 | Rory McIlroy | +700 | T-7 |
| 2018 | Rory McIlroy* | +1000 | T-5 |
| 2018 | Jordan Spieth* | +1000 | 3rd |
| 2018 | Justin Thomas* | +1000 | T-17 |
| 2019 | Rory McIlroy | +800 | T-21 |
| 2020 | Bryson DeChambeau | +700 | T-34 |
| 2021 | Dustin Johnson | +800 | MC |
| 2022 | Jon Rahm* | +1200 | T-27 |
| 2022 | Justin Thomas* | +1200 | T-8 |
| 2023 | Rory McIlroy* | +700 | MC |
| 2023 | Scottie Scheffler* | +700 | T-10 |
* co-favorite
The Nature Of Betting On Golf
This is reflective of golf results in general. Since 2016, golf betting favorites have won 41 times in 503 events, just 8.15% of the time. The implied odds of 8.15% is about 11-1.
Betting on the favorites to win outright has not been a lucrative wager for the Masters Tournament for some time. But that does not mean that betting favorites cannot be used in other ways.
More Golf Betting Favorite Trends
Golf betting favorites have finished in the top three 23.26% (+330 fair odds) and in the top five 34.19% (+192 fair odds) of the time.
Bettors can find a more profitable outcome by taking golf favorites to finish well instead of winning outright. If bettors are looking to capitalize on favorites in a more lucrative manner, taking them in top finish markets may yield better results.
It is to be noted, however, that the last time the betting favorite finished in the top three or top five at The Masters was in 2018. Last year’s Masters Tournament co-favorites Rory McIlroy and Scottie Scheffler finished MC and T10, respectively. Both golfers had +700 odds to win outright before the tournament.
So, based on the data and history, bettors should look at other odds outside the favorites when locking in their tickets. There are no guarantees in betting, and Scottie Scheffler could very well break the streak. He is the favorite for a reason, being ranked the No. 1 golfer in the world.
2024 Masters Odds Comparison Table
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