The marathon of content has finally come to a close, and now it’s time to put the pencils down, kick back, and do nothing for the next four days with the 2023 Masters finally upon us. Well, that last part isn’t entirely true for me. I’ll be hopping on a flight to Kiawah Island this Thursday for a quick 48-hours of 54 holes, but will be streaming The Masters throughout. Was that poor planning or the best golf weekend ever? You be the judge! Getting back to the task at hand, let’s dive into Masters bets.
This is sure to be a Masters for the record books with no shortage of new narratives. Tiger Woods is here. All the LIV guys are here. A looming four-day storm is unfortunately just about to be here. It’s going to be a wild week of headlines, and I can’t wait to see it all unfold.
Let’s get to my final Masters bets. Click the odds anywhere in this article to place Masters bets.
For a full breakdown of the tournament and course, visit my Masters preview.
HOW I BUILT MY MASTERS BETTING CARD
Augusta National has continued to make strides to lengthen the course year-over-year, and inevitably soft conditions from constant rainfall in tournament week should only further separate the advantage for the long hitters versus the shorter ones. Will potential for suspension of play, it’s hard to say whether there will be a wave advantage like we saw at the 2021 PLAYERS Championship, but an ability to grind on long and difficult courses will continue to be at a premium for the full field this week. Ultimately, I built my card around long hitters with elite long-iron play & short game, and proven results at The Masters and other recent Majors.
In terms of unit allocations for my card this week, we are cranking up the units a little bit to match the stakes and intensity of the Major championships. All bets remain proportional with the usual weekly betting card structure.
- Outrights – 3.75U in to pay 30U each
- FRL – 0.5U in to pay out 10U+ each
- Props – 3.75U in to pay out 4U+ each
Click on any of the odds below for Masters bets and the best available prices across legal sportsbooks in your state.
THE MASTERS BETS: OUTRIGHTS (3.75 UNITS)
Patrick Cantlay
My Bet: +2200
Best Odds Still Available:
Opting to fade the big-three this week, I chose to begin my card with the player I believe to be the fourth most likely to win, at triple the price of the others. I endorsed Cantlay as my spotlight feature in this week’s tournament preview, and have spent a majority of my time this week trying to dispel the myths that Patrick Cantlay is incapable of contending in a Major.
I believe the narrative of Cantlay’s ineptitude in Majors is a stale one now in 2023, after finishing T14 and T8 in the final two Majors of 2022. Since 2018, he’s finished top-15 in six of 17 Major appearances, so a 35% clip of high finishes in Majors is enough for me to look the other way. Cantlay has always been a discipled and patient strategist, which he credits to his regular success at Muirfield Village, and enters the 2023 Masters in top-tier form, ranking top-10 across the key stats of Par-5 Scoring, Prox: 200+, Par-4: 450+, SG: OTT, SG: T2G (L12 Rounds), Comp Course History, and SG: Short Game (Firm & Fast Greens). The time is now for Cantlay to pick up his first career Major championship.
Tony Finau
My Bet: +2900
Best Odds Still Available:
A year ago, it was a laughable proposition to stake Tony Finau to win a Major championship, as he was still trying to shake his reputation as a prolific non-winner. A year and three wins later, that script has completely flipped. I expect a more confident version of Tony Finau to cruise down Magnolia Lane this year after stockpiling wins at the 3M Open, Rocket Mortgage Classic, and Houston Open since last year.
He hasn’t quite put himself in contention since the Houston Open win last November, but top-25 finishes in all seven 2023 starts is nothing to complain about from a form standpoint. His irons continue to click, gaining 3+ strokes on approach in seven of his last 8 starts, and Augusta National has proven to be a comfort course for Tony, having never finished worse than T38 with three top-10s over five career appearances.
Xander Schauffele
My Bet: +2900
Best Odds Still Available:
A year ago, it was a laughable proposition to stake Xander Schauffele to win a Major championship, as he was still trying to shake his reputation as a prolific non-winner. A year and three wins later, that script has completely flipped. See what I did there?
Like Finau, Xander’s plus-distance off the tee, complete all-round skillsets, and proficiency with long irons has translated to success at Augusta National with a pair of top-3 finishes over his last four trips. His approach form is significantly better now than ever before leading into Masters week, as he ranks No. 9 in the field in SG: APP. He was the No. 4 ranked player in my model behind the big-three this week, and the first bet on my Masters card at the lofty 29-1 price.
Justin Rose
My Bet: +7500
Best Odds Still Available:
History has shown a frightening track record when venturing beyond 50-1 outright odds at the Masters, but with Rose’s closing line finishing closer to 55-1, I think this is a good place to draw the line on the outright board. Rose has one thing that favorites like Spieth, Smith, Cantlay, Thomas, Morikawa, Schauffele, Johnson, Day, Young, and Hovland do not: A 2023 win.
Rose broke a 4-year winless drought with his victory at the 2023 AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am, and proved that week was no fluke by finishing T6 at THE PLAYERS Championship three starts later. Since 2015, Rose has two runner ups and five top-12 finishes at the Masters, so the combination of recent form and course history are well worth the current price.
THE MASTERS FIRST ROUND LEADER BETS (0.5 UNITS)
Justin Rose
My Bet: +5000
Best Odds Still Available:
Rose has proven to be a pace-setter at Augusta National, pacing the field with the first round lead in four of his 17 career appearances, and most recently in 2021. His prominence with his irons and putting this season, coupled with his strategic understanding of how to navigate Augusta National make him a prime FRL candidate once again.
Joaquin Niemann
My Bet: +6000
Best Odds Still Available:
Niemann carded three birdies and an eagle in the first round of the 2022 Masters, which was nearly enough for a share of the first-round lead if not for a misstep or two the rest of his opening round. We haven’t seen the 2022 Genesis Invitational champ under the limelight in quite some time since joining LIV, but it’s clear he’ll be motivated to justify that career choice with a hot start this week.
Sergio Garcia
My Bet: +8000
Best Odds Still Available:
With the latest enhancements to the back nine par-5s at Augusta National, it seems birdie and eagle opportunities may only be scarcely available for the longest hitters in the field. Much of Sergio’s form on the LIV tour is a mystery without data to quantify, but I think it’s fair to assume he still has the distance in his arsenal which helped him earn the green jacket in 2017, if only for one round.
Ryan Fox
My Bet: +10000
Best Odds Still Available:
Speaking of distance, Ryan Fox should be licking his chops ahead of his Masters debut, as these long, wide open fairways will allow him to unleash on all par-4s and par-5s. He’s shown he can go low on the DP World Tour, and continued that success over to the States with a T17 in his API debut.
Jason Kokrak
My Bet: +10000
Best Odds Still Available:
On the eye test, Jason Kokrak is the type of player who should have success at Augusta National. He’s a great total driver with plus distance, is best putting on firm and fast greens, and has shown his talent can stack up with the best on the PGA TOUR with three wins since 2020. A T14 at the 2022 Masters shows he knows his way around this course now as well.
THE MASTERS PROPS (3.75 UNITS)
Top Senior: Phil Mickelson
My Bet: +125
Best Odds Still Available:
Nothing is guaranteed in golf betting, but I struggle to understand how this prop is being offered at plus-odds, or which other Senior player in this field could conceivably card a better score than Phil on a wet 7,545 yard layout.
I don’t have the stats between the LIV Tour and Champions Tour, but I would assume Phil Mickelson has about 75 yards of distance to his advantage over Bernhard Langer, Fred Couples, and Mike Weir. By all accounts, Phil has been a disappointment on the LIV Tour, but he’s never finished in the bottom-10 of any given LIV event. I can’t imagine the same could be said if you placed Langer, Couples, and Weir on the professional tees.
I don’t expect Phil to play well this week, but by process of elimination on a course that should reward sheer length and short game touch, I’m making this prop my conviction bet of the week.
Top English Player: Justin Rose
My Bet: +330
Best Odds Still Available:
I’m high on Rose’s prospects this week given the combination of current form and high floor of finishes over recent years at Augusta National. His competition in the market enter Masters week with far more question marks. Matt Fitzpatrick and Tyrrell Hatton, the two English co-favorites, are each limping in with injury concerns after disappointing showings in their latest starts. Tommy Fleetwood carries a similar background of form and course history to Rose, but I’ll take my chances on the +330 odds without an imposing threat to Rose.
Top Debutant: Kurt Kitayama
My Bet: +650
Best Odds Still Available:
I was surprised to see that Kitayama was not the favorite debutant after just establishing himself on TOUR with an impressive victory at the Arnold Palmer Invitational, another long and difficult course with a deep field. He’s proven himself on other long, driver-heavy courses with runner up finishes at the Scottish Open, Mexico Open, and CJ Cup at Palmetto over the last year.
Looking at the favorites ahead him, I have concerns about Tom Kim on a long course and Sahith Theegala on a driver-heavy setup, given his struggles to keep the ball in play off the tee at times. For +650 odds, I think there’s a clear path for Kitayama to cash this prop.
Top LIV Player: Patrick Reed
My Bet: +1100
Best Odds Still Available: +1100
The Top LIV Player prop is obviously a brand new one at the Masters, one that presents some of the best value in the specialty market, especially if you’re someone like me who doesn’t feel threatened by the current state of Cam Smith and Dustin Johnson’s games,
Patrick Reed has shown top-level consistency at Augusta National with three top-10s over the last five years. If conditions are nasty this week, I trust Reed in a scrambling contest, and although he didn’t make my outright card, I think another top-10 is very much in play for him this week.
Top LIV Player: Jason Kokrak
My Bet: +2800
Best Odds Still Available: +2800
28-1 odds for a three-time PGA TOUR winner since 2020 to finish ahead of 17 other players in questionable form sounds like good value to me. We don’t know if it’ll take a T5, T10, T20, or simply a Made Cut to cash this prop, which should make for a fun secondary sweat.
ONE AND DONE
My Pick: Patrick Cantlay
Having already used Rory McIlroy and Scottie Scheffler in OAD this year, my first decision this week was whether or not to play Jon Rahm. Ultimately, I decided there are still three more Majors and a handful of Designated events (notably the Memorial) where he’ll be favored with a high purse, so I’m keeping patient on him until the immediate form is less questionable. No. 4 on my Masters Big Board this week is Patrick Cantlay, so he gets the nod from me this week at what should be some depressed ownership given the less-than-stellar course history and popularity of the big-three.
If not Cantlay, I would also consider Tony Finau, Xander Schauffele, or Will Zalatoris as OAD picks.
THE MASTERS BETTING CARD
That’ll do it for this week’s Masters bets. Best of luck this week with your own Masters bets, and see you next week for the RBC Heritage! For more, follow TheLines on Twitter.
