My 2022 Masters Betting Card, Storylines, Final Thoughts

Written By John Haslbauer on April 6, 2022
masters bets

Hello friends! It feels like Christmas Eve, and now with the longest three days of content behind us, it’s time to hit that lock button on Masters bets, sit back, relax, and wait for it to get underway.

Tiger Woods’ improbable comeback has dominated the storylines this week, so the excitement and anticipation from sports fans ahead of this year’s affairs are now at an all time high. Tiger aside, there are plenty of other storylines to watch out for with so many of the game’s best playing at an elite level this time of year with aspirations to pick up their first career green jacket.

Click on the odds below if you’d like to add my 2022 Masters bets as well.

MY BETTING CARD: HOW I BUILT MY MASTERS BETS

There is a clear up-echelon of ten players in this year’s Masters. Jon Rahm, Justin Thomas, Scottie Scheffler, Dustin Johnson, Rory McIlroy, Collin Morikawa, Viktor Hovland, Brooks Koepka are the consensus top-tire player listed at shorter than 20-1 odds this week. The sportsbooks are sharp for the Masters, knowing exactly what to expect from this tournament each year, so rather than scouring the mid and long range of the odds board for potential upside value, my approach this week was simply to pick the two players in this upper tier who I think have the best chance to win.

With that top-loaded approach, I’m a little over-exposed at 4U in outrights, compared to the 3.75U stake I aim for in Major tournaments. But hey, we’re talking about Masters bets, and I want a stake on the guys who I want to see win. Each outright bet will payout 30U this week, compared to the usual 24U week-to-week goal.

For Props, I’m upping the stake to 4U in (versus the typical 3U per week) to pay roughly 3.5U each. It’s an easy week to get carried away with all the special Masters bets, but there’s just so many fun markets I want some exposure to. Like most weeks, one cashed prop should closely breakeven the total prop bets and multiple cashed props would give us a free-roll on outrights. The FRL market is a bit starved for value in a 91-man field, but we’re making it work with the same weekly allocations (0.5U in to pay out 10U+).

I’ll be back in TheLines’ Discord golf channel Wednesday at 8 p.m. ET to talk through all my favorite 2022 Masters bets, DFS plays, and final thoughts for this week in addition to everything covered here. Hope to see you there!

MASTERS BETS: OUTRIGHTS (4.0 UNITS)

Justin Thomas

My Bet: +1600

Best Odds Still Available:

The only thing I did right this week in terms of odds shopping was find this 16-1 number on WynnBet early in the week. Thomas is in contention for the most popularly bet player this week floating between the 14 to 16-1 range all week, and for good reason. He rated out no. 1 overall in my model this week, which puts an emphasis on Driving Distance, recent form (SG: T2G), Masters History, and Recent Major History. Although Thomas still has not won since the 2021 PLAYERS Championship, he’s checking all of the pre-requisite boxes to contend at Augusta, and is peaking at the right time with five T10 finishes in his previous seven starts. He’s finished T22-or-better in each of his last five appearances at The Masters, and now after adding Bones to the bag, he’s got a better chance than ever to get over the hump for his first green jacket.

Rory McIlroy

My Bet: +1800

Best Odds Still Available:

This was a future bet placed about three months ago, and before his MC at the Valero Texas Open, it was looking like I might’ve actually gotten some value on this number. Alas, he’s since drifted a few points as far as 22-1 because of that MC. I couldn’t be any less concerned about Rory’s performance at the Valero, good or bad, as it was clear that appearance was going to be a tune-up with the career Grand Slam on the line this week. With Augusta receiving heavy rainfall in the days ahead of competition, Rory should benefit from a softer course which will reward scoring opportunities for the players with the longest carry distance off-the-tee. He also draws a favorable tee time, avoiding the Friday afternoon wave which appears to be getting the brunt of the severe winds.

Among Masters bets to win outright, if I could place one this week, it would be on McIlroy, even at the short 18-1 odds. He has the distance, recent T2G form, and Course History necessary to win here, it’s just a matter of piecing four rounds together.

Sungjae Im

My Bet: +6600

Best Odds Still Available:

There’s surprisingly been very little conversation around Sungjae Im this week. He ranks no. 7 overall in my model, a credit to ranking inside the top-10 of this field in SG: T2G, SG: ARG, P4: 450+, and SG: Short Game (Firm & Fast conditions).

Sungjae burst onto the scene in his 2020 Masters debut, finishing runner up to a blazing Dustin Johnson with an impressive score of -15. Sungjae has already posted five T10 finishes in the 2022 season, so it’s surprising to see a player of his caliber with early proven results at Augusta National slip this far. As one of the most precise long iron players on TOUR with some of the most reliable short game skill sets in firm and fast conditions, this course should be a perfect set up for Sungjae to contend.

Keita Nakajima

My Bet: +150000

Best Odds Still Available:

I’ve never placed an outright bet with this many zeroes before. Japanese players are undefeated at The Masters over the last year, and as one of the most decorated amateurs to ever tee it up at The Masters, I’ll happily place a small stake if this prodigal talent can show his untapped potential this week.

More Masters betting coverage:

FIRST ROUND LEADER (0.5 UNITS)

Joaquin Niemann

My Bet: +5500

Best Odds Still Available:

If Niemann decides to replicate exactly the same game he brought with him to Riviera CC for the Genesis Invitational a few starts ago, the contoured angles of Augusta National should continue to reward that shot shaping ability. I still worry about his short game to contend at Augusta for four days, but he absolutely has the tools to go low for one round if the ball striking is dialed in.

Sungjae Im

My Bet: +7000

Best Odds Still Available:

Sungjae fired a 66 in his first career round at Augusta National in 202o, so we know he has the potential to go low on these grounds. He has the distance to reach the par-5s in two, the short game to scramble for pars on Augusta’s most difficult stretches, and has a putter he can rely on to string together birdie streaks. I’m taking a stance on Sungjae this week, and believe he has the skillset needed to attack this course.

Max Homa

My Bet: +7000

Best Odds Still Available:

Max Homa has already slayed Quail Hollow and Riviera CC in recent years, so although the results in Majors haven’t manifested yet, it seems it’s only a matter of time. He has sneaky distance and has always been one of the best par-5 scorers on TOUR, which is crucial if you want to post the low round of the day here.

Francesco Molinari

My Bet: +10000

Best Odds Still Available:

Molinari showed signs of life at The AmEx where he contended on Sunday before a T6 finish. Experience is always a benefit at Augusta, so there’s plenty of reason for optimism with Molinari at this price, with three top-20 finishes over his last eight Masters appearances.

PROPS (4.0 UNITS)

Top Amateur: Keita Nakajima

My Bet: +150

I sparing throw the word lock around non-sarcastically when it comes to the volatile market of golf betting. Keita Nakajima as top amateur in this field at +150 odds is the closest I’ve felt to a lock all golf season.

Nakajima sits no. 1 in the World Amateur Golf Rankings. The next closest in this field is Steward Hagestad at no. 13, and after him, none of the other four amateurs are in the top-20. Nakajima is the only amateur in this field who’s played in a PGA TOUR event before. He’s made two starts this 2022 season and made it through the cut both times at the ZOZO Championship and Sony Open. He also beat a field of Japanese professionals at the 2021 Panasonic Open, so his experience and results in professional events should give him a huge leg up mentally to find himself in Butler Cabin on Sunday.

Top Asian Player: Sungjae Im

My Bet: +250

Best Odds Still Available:

I’m placing this bet on the assumption that Hideki Matsuyama is still not 100% healthy after being forced to withdraw from both THE PLAYERS and Valero Texas Open. He’s also got all the distractions to deal with that come with a Masters title defense, between organizing the dinner menu and fielding press interviews. If Hideki were 100% healthy and not dealing with any distractions, I would still give Sungjae an equal chance to finish ahead. Sungjae’s game is ideal for Augusta compared to Si Woo Kim and Takumi Kanaya, so I’m happy to roll the dice on him here with solid odds value.

Top Senior: Bernhard Langer

My Bet: +325

Best Odds Still Available:

Padraig Harrington is the only man standing in Langer’s way from an easy cash versus the other geriatric automatic qualifiers. Harrington is here by way of a T4 at the PGA Championship and looked passable in his previous TOUR start at the Arnold Palmer Invitational where he finished T42. The problem with Harrington, however, is that it’s been a long seven years since he last qualified for The Masters, and he’s missed the cut in four of his last five appearances here going back to 2010.

Langer on the other hand, has been blitzing the Champions Tour at the tender age of 64, recently shooting his age to win the Chubb Classic in February. Making it through the cut may very well be all it takes to cash in this market, and he’s done just that in three of his last four Masters appearances.

Top Debutant: Talor Gooch

My Bet: +750

Best Odds Still Available:

It’s a crowded group of debutants this year, headlined by Sam Burns, Seamus Power, Harold Varner III, Cameron Young, and Tom Hoge. Of this group, I expect Gooch’s game to translate best in difficult conditions, as he ranks first in this field in 3-putt avoidance and 7th in SG: ARG. He recently finished T7 at the Arnold Palmer Invitational in extremely difficult conditions, and also has top-10 finishes at The Genesis, Houston Open, CJ Cup, Farmers, and THE PLAYERS over the course of his early career, proving he can hold his own in Major-like conditions.

Top 20 Finish: Mackenzie Hughes

My Bet: +850

Best Odds Still Available:

You had yourself a 50% hit-rate on Mackenzie Hughes if you bet him to finish top-20 at every Major last year; he finished T6 at The Open and T15 at The U.S. Open. Hughes does not hit it a long way or dazzle with his ball-striking, but he makes up for it with elite short game. Last year, -1 was a good enough final score to finish inside the top-20 at The Masters, and Hughes is fully capable of scrambling for pars throughout the week to stay right around Even for the tournament, if that’s what it takes to finish T20.

ONE AND DONE

My Pick: Jon Rahm

Last year presented a long list of options to play Jon Rahm in OAD. He got to play Torrey Pines twice, Kiawah Island and Royal St. Georges suited him well, and then there’s always the Memorial and The Masters that will make sense for him. This year, it seems like the other three Major venues on the calendar are going to remove some of his distance and driving advantage, this may well be the best opportunity to play Rahm with a high purse on the line. Justin Thomas and Scottie Scheffler enter this week in arguably better form than Rahm, so although using him in the first Major of the year seems obvious, I don’t think he’s even guaranteed to be the most-used player this week.

I’m a big believer in using the best players in the world at Majors for OAD and not getting too cute with contrarian plays. With that said, Justin Thomas, Rory McIlroy, Scottie Scheffler, and Jordan Spieth would be amongst the top plays I’d look to consider this week in OAD if not Rahm.

THE MASTERS BETS

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CLOSING THOUGHTS AND STORYLINES

My research, card construction, and DFS player pool is all built on the stance that there will not be many surprises on the 2022 Masters leaderboard, and that players in the best form with elite short game, above-average distance, and proven history at The Masters and other recent Majors will rise to the top.

Rory McIlroy has rated out well for Augusta National seemingly every year he’s shown up, without quite closing the deal yet. This year, I expect a different result. His ball-striking is trending perfectly, he’s picked up a couple PGA TOUR wins versus great fields since his last trip to Augusta, and he’s saying all the right things to the media about his mentality and preparation before this week’s festivities. He is my pick to win the 2022 Masters.

Before we recline and and indulge in the first Major of the year, these are some final thoughts on 2022 Masters storylines I’m excited to watch for this week.

Tiger Woods

This is normally the part where I pick a handful of different storylines to tee up before tournament play begins. But who am I kidding, every storyline this week ladders back to one man.

Where to begin with the spectacle that is Tiger Woods. It’s remarkable to think this will be his first time stepping onto the tee box at Augusta National in front of mass crowds since his momentous 2019 victory. And it’s of course even more remarkable that he’s even physically able to walk onto that tee box just 14 months removed from his horrific car accident. As Tiger has proven time and time again throughout his famed career, he’s simply built different, and the normal rules of mere mortals need not apply to him.

Judging by what we last saw from Tiger at the PNC Championship in November, I thought an April return to the most difficult walk in golf would be impossible. Before the start of 2021, I set a line of Jon Rahm wins versus Tiger Woods TOUR starts at 2.5. I thought we’d first see Tiger at The Open Championship, for an easy walk at St. Andrews, and then again at the PNC Championship.

I thought wrong.

Logical thought does not apply to Tiger Woods, so I’ve abstained from placing any Tiger Woods bets this week. I don’t know if he’ll shoot 80 or 66 on Thursday. Neither would surprise me, but I’m rooting all the best for Tiger Woods, and will soak in any opportunity we still have left to watch the GOAT play.

Good luck with your Masters bets!

John Haslbauer Avatar
Written by
John Haslbauer

John Haslbauer writes about golf betting and advanced golf metrics for TheLines.com. He is a passionate golf fan, golf writer, and (casual) golfer. A graduate at Syracuse University, John works out of Jersey City as a Director of Media Strategy for HBO and HBO Max. He created the website thepgatout.com at the start of 2021 and is active on Twitter (@PGATout). No, he is not a tout. The Twitter handle is a joke. Touts are lame. We hate touts.

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