March Madness Upset Predictions: Sweet 16 Day 1

The Sweet 16 is here, and if you're hunting for March Madness upset predictions on Day 2, a pair of games are jumping off the screen. Friday's Sweet 16 slate doesn't have many obvious spots, but there are still some great bets to attack. Let’s dive into the upset picks.

March Madness Upset Predictions: Michigan State Spartans vs. UConn Huskies

Death, taxes, and Tom Izzo in the Sweet 16. Beyond the analytics, it doesn't get any better than backing an Izzo team in March. Guard play is such a nice luxury in high-pressure situations, and there aren't many better than MSU's Jeremy Fears Jr., who averages 15.3 points and over 9 assists per game this season.

Here's where it gets interesting with Friday's Sweet 16 slate. I created a college basketball model that adjusts plenty of advanced analytics and weighs a ton of season-long and historical data for neutral-court settings. Michigan State upsetting UConn is my first moneyline upset pick.

The Spartans are only 1.5-point underdogs, and honestly, my model thinks that's wrong. Michigan State checks in at No. 9 in my adjusted efficiency margin. UConn is No. 10. When you strip away home court, which doesn't exist in the tournament, the model spits out Michigan State as a slight favorite.

My model also calculates what I call a "resilience score" for every team, which measures how well a team can still generate offense when their primary looks aren't there.

It factors in how often they get to the free-throw line, how well they crash the offensive glass for second chances, and how much they protect the ball. Think of it as a "Plan B" rating.

When shots stop falling in a tight tournament game, resilient teams find other ways to score. UConn's resilience grades out below the threshold my model flags as a concern — mostly because they rank near the bottom of the country in getting to the foul line.

Michigan State is +110 on both BetMGM and Caesars Sportsbook as of Thursday afternoon at 12:30 p.m. EST.

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March Madness Upset Picks: Tennessee Volunteers vs. Iowa State Cyclones

While my model doesn't project any other scores to tip fully toward the underdog, I'm not shocked. The remaining Sweet 16 games have Vegas spreads of at least 3.5 points toward the favorite. But if there's another Sweet 16 Day 2 surprise lurking, I'm going with Tennessee over Iowa State.

This should be one heck of a 2-6 matchup, and Iowa State's Joshua Jefferson appears to be a game-time decision after spraining his left ankle during the Cyclones' tournament opener against Tennessee State.

The 6-foot-9 forward averaged 16.4 points, 7.4 rebounds, and 4.8 assists per game for Iowa State this season and missed their Round of 32 win over Kentucky. The Cyclones still have a very strong team that generates a ton of pressure and turnovers, but Tennessee presents an incredibly tough matchup, especially defensively.

Can Iowa State score enough against this Tennessee defense? According to KenPom, Iowa State is 3-4 overall this season against opponents that rank in the top 15 in adjusted defensive efficiency. Tennessee ranks 14th in that department.

The Volunteers do have a couple of tough losses this season, but they're also the No. 1 offensive rebounding team in the country according to KenPom, and those extra possessions could make a massive difference in a Sweet 16 game where every bucket matters.

Tennessee on the moneyline is +158 on Caesars Sportsbook and +145 on BetMGM as of Thursday afternoon at 12:30 p.m. EST.

Sweet 16 Day 2 Upset Predictions: 2-Leg Parlay

Here's where the Sweet 16 Day 2 predictions get fun. If you believe in both of these Sweet 16 surprises, you can build a two-leg parlay around them on Caesars Sportsbook:

• Michigan State Moneyline (+110)
• Tennessee Moneyline (+158)
• Total Parlay Odds: +442

These are my favorite March Madness upset picks and Sweet 16 Day 2 surprises for Friday's slate. Good luck, and enjoy the Sweet 16 action!