March Madness Sweet 16 Upsets, Odds: Which Underdogs Advance?

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Written By Eli Hershkovich | Last Updated March 28, 2025

With Sweet 16 odds for March Madness less than 24 hours away from tipping off, there’s no better time to decipher the most likely upsets for Thursday and Friday’s action. Below, I’ll utilize the implied probability of each underdog winning outright from the best sports betting sites to help determine which Sweet 16 upsets are primed to occur. Let’s dive in.

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sweet 16 upsets: implied probability & betting odds

1. Ole Miss Rebels:

As of this publication, the market is giving Chris Beard’s squad a 40% implied probability of reaching the Elite Eight and facing the winner of Auburn vs. Michigan. Regular readers know I’m invested in Ole Miss regarding its Final Four futures odds. Check out my full betting preview of Sweet 16 odds and picks.

2. Kentucky Wildcats:

The Wildcats’ 36.2% implied probability of upsetting Tennessee for a third time this year is undoubtedly intriguing. But against the Vols’ physical defense, I believe they’ll miss Jaxson Robinson’s floor-spacing prowess, which was not a concern during the first two rounds.

3. BYU Cougars:

The Cougars took advantage of a situational edge in victories over VCU and Wisconsin, playing at a high altitude, as they do in their home gym in Provo, Utah. Hence, I’m less bullish on their 36.2% implied probability of knocking off the Crimson Tide.

4. Arkansas Razorbacks:

For my money, Arkansas’ hopes of tallying a third-straight upset hinge on the status of Texas Tech long-range maven Chance McMillian, who is considered questionable with an upper-body injury. After missing the last three matchups, the Razborbacks’ 32.8% implied probability of advancing will greatly improve if he remains out.

5. Maryland Terrapins:

Despite the hoopla surrounding Maryland coach Kevin Willard, who has been linked to the Villanova opening throughout the week, I expect the Terps to go toe-to-toe with the West Region’s top seed. For bettors searching for a feisty underdog among potential Sweet 16 upsets at the best March Madness betting sites, their 27.8% implied probability is a bit short, per my raw numbers.

Read my abovementioned column for more on this intriguing tilt.

6. Michigan Wolverines:

Frankly, there’s been more discussion surrounding Michigan’s Sweet 16 run than anything involving the top seed in the NCAA tourney.

Following a dominant regular season, Auburn stumbled into the Big Dance. Nevertheless, the Tigers’ physicality and floor spacing eventually wore down Creighton in the second half on Saturday, and I anticipate they will do the same to Vlad Goldin and Co. I’m not buying Michigan’s 22.2% implied probability of reaching the Elite Eight.

7. Purdue Boilermakers:

Although the Boilermakers’ 21.7% implied probability of earning their second consecutive Elite Eight appearance may seem generous, this game’s swings (and scoring droughts) will surprise bettors. Whichever team is least affected by the shooting backdrop at Lucas Oil Stadium could represent the determining factor. Remember that Purdue ranks ninth in three-point efficiency nationally (38.5%).

If you’re wagering on the Boilermakers to cover the spread, I advise throwing couch change on the ML. Like Maryland, I give Purdue a fighter’s chance to stay within a few possessions versus the No. 1 seed in the Midwest Region.

8. Arizona Wildcats:

Comparisons between Duke’s current form and two-time defending champion UConn have recently been tossed around. The betting market certainly agrees, giving Arizona a lowly 19.1% implied probability of derailing stud freshman Cooper Flagg and the Blue Devils. But unless Caleb Love is ultra-efficient, like he was versus Oregon on Sunday, I expect Duke to cruise to win a victory.

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