March Madness Sweet 16 Odds, Picks: Best Bets, Including Houston Vs. Purdue
With the best sports betting sites posting Sweet 16 odds for March Madness, I'll compile my best bets for individual games, including top-seeded Houston vs. fourth-seeded Purdue in the Midwest Region. I suggest bookmarking this page so you don't miss any Sweet 16 predictions I add throughout the week.
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March Madness sweet 16 betting odds
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florida vs. maryland odds: spread, moneyline, total
Gators Overvalued?
On Sunday night, Florida opened as a 4.5-point favorite and was immediately bet up to -6.5. In fact, the line rose as high as -7 (-115 at Caesars Sportsbook) before there was market resistance on the Terrapins.
My raw numbers have the Gators positioned closer to the opener. While there's a case that Todd Golden's squad was tested against the two-time defending champions and will play to its ceiling the rest of the tourney, I've been lower on Florida than the market for much of the campaign, particularly entering March Madness, when it displayed the second-best national title odds behind Duke.
Conversely, bettors will argue that the last nine teams to hit a buzzer-beater in the NCAA tournament have gone 2-7 straight up in the following game. How will the Terps perform after Derik Queen shipped them off to the Sweet 16?
Ignore This Trend
Regular readers of TheLines' college hoops coverage know I've never supported betting on trends. Recent history also proves that teams respond differently in these spots. In 2021, Jalen Suggs knocked down a half-court heave against UCLA before Baylor slaughtered Gonzaga in the title game. Four years prior, Loyola Chicago hit consecutive game-winners (one right before the final horn sounded) and advanced to the Final Four.
Better yet, Maryland's three-day layoff before taking the court in San Francisco should assist its hope of avoiding an emotional letdown.
To remain competitive, Queen and his frontcourt mate, Julian Reese, must avoid early foul trouble against the Gators' lengthy bigs. Still, Florida's top-15 defense could undergo some negative variance, surrendering a 35.2% clip on unguarded triples, well below the D-I average.
Suppose Ja'Kobi Gillespie and Co. connect on their fair share of wide-open looks, unlike the Huskies. In that case, they're more than talented enough to deliver an outright upset and push my Final Four futures ticket one step closer to the finish line.
Final Betting Thoughts
The Terps haven't lost a matchup by more than six points this season. Are they due for a blowout defeat? Possibly. However, their unlucky late-game losses prove they're undervalued.
On Tuesday, I wagered on Maryland +7 (-105 at Caesars). You’ll find this pick on our free sports betting Discord channel, where you can enroll in push notifications to your mobile device by heading to the #roles server.
Michigan state vs. ole miss odds: spread, moneyline, total
Will Rebels Run Into Their Kryptonite?
Speaking of my futures portfolio, I have a small stake in Ole Miss to reach San Antonio. To boot, I bet on Chris Beard's bunch in its first two March Madness contests. In the month leading up to the tournament, the Rebels were dealt the 11th-worst net three-point clip (-8.1%) nationally, and they've responded by shooting 48.7% from behind the arc against UNC and Iowa State.
Nevertheless, the Tar Heels fell to Ole Miss less than three days after taking down San Diego State in the First Four. Moreover, the Cyclones couldn't compensate for the absence of point guard Keshawn Gibert.
Needless to say, Ole Miss had a situational edge in each matchup. That isn't the case against Michigan State, which boasts a significant advantage on the glass, given its sizeable rotation and top-20 rebounding rate at both ends.
When the Rebels failed to win the rebounding battle in SEC play, they were exposed against Auburn (thrice), Mississippi State (twice), Texas A&M, and Florida. Although I'm concerned with MSU's spotty floor-spacing against Beard's no-middle defensive scheme, Sparty should emerge victorious if it owns the boards and controls the tempo.
On Tuesday morning, I bet on Michigan State ML (-160 at Circa Sports). You'll discover this bet on the Discord channel above.
Friday's Update: With the market shifting toward MSU over the course of the week, I opted to play back on Ole Miss ML (+155 at Circa) and let my Final Four futures ride. Ultimately, the price is a tad too high at this juncture, especially if the Spartans' shooting woes carry over into tonight.
houston vs. purdue odds: spread, moneyline, total
Will Boilermakers' Adjustments Pay Off?
Before Thursday's first-round action tipped off, Purdue ranked 348th in two-point percentage defense. Since then, Matt Painter has adjusted by packing the paint and forcing opponents to knock down perimeter jumpers.
His strategy has paid off, with the Boilermakers allowing a 38.1% clip in the paint over this two-game stretch. It should prevent Cougars center J'Wan Roberts from torching them inside, yet L.J. Cryer, Emanual Sharp, and Milos Uzan — all shooting at least 42.3% from deep — should benefit plenty.
Additionally, Purdue stalwart Braden Smith has historically struggled against pressure-centric defenses. Unfortunately for the Cousy Award finalist, Houston ranks 18th in opponents' turnover rate nationally.
That said, I make this spread closer to -6.5. Considering this contest is in Indianapolis, I've credited Purdue with a slight home-court edge.
With points at a premium in a game set up to evolve into a low-possession grinder, the Boilermakers' elite three-point shooting (38.5%) will allow them to hang around against a defense that gives up the 70th-highest perimeter scoring rate.
On Tuesday afternoon, I bet on Purdue +8 (-110 at Caesars). Good luck with your wagers on Sweet 16 odds!
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