March Madness Betting Predictions: Which 3 Teams Will Disappoint Bettors?

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Written By Eli Hershkovich | Last Updated March 2, 2024

Merry March to those who those who celebrate. Since the calendar has officially flipped over to the best month of the year, you will be wagering on single-game March Madness odds sooner than you know it. Therefore, there’s no better time to assess a few notable teams that are set up to disappoint in the Big Dance. Below are these March Madness predictions.

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No. 2 purdue boilermakers:

I’ll certainly receive flack for the first of my March Madness predictions. For context, I’ve been bearish on the Boilermakers for much of Matt Painter’s tenure, alienating myself from Purdue fans (and bettors) in the process.

Nevertheless, it’s warranted. My raw numbers are lower on the Big Ten than the rest of the prestigious power conferences. Moreover, as dominant as Boilermakers center Zach Edey has been, they’ve showcased a borderline top-200 defense over their last four games.

Much of that revolves around their defensive regression around the perimeter, surrendering a 41.3% clip to the opposition. Meanwhile, turnovers have been a major red flag offensively, particularly for sophomore point guard Braden Smith. If Purdue fails to shore up either area in the next few weeks, it will undergo another early exit in the Big Dance.

Up next for the Boilermakers is Michigan State at Mackey Arena. Purdue is a favorite.

Related: Regression Candidates For Saturday’s College Basketball Odds

No. 14 Alabama crimson tide:

Over the last two-plus decades, there have only been a handful of Final Four teams with a defense ranked outside the top 70: Marquette (2003), VCU (2011), and Miami (FL) last season. That isn’t to say the Crimson Tide can’t replicate their success, considering their top-rated offensive efficiency.

On Feb. 21, Alabama snuck past an uber-talented Florida team despite shooting 8-of-32 (25.0%) from long distance. The overtime victory was largely a credit to tallying 21 offensive rebounds, which it’s done a fine job with all year. But those same second-chance opportunities will not come about against an elite defensive rebounding team, especially on a neutral court.

History tells us that teams constructed like Tide are unlikely to string together four consecutive wins on the biggest stage.

Alabama is listed at for Saturday’s critical SEC matchup against No. 4 Tennessee.

No. 7 kansas jayhawks:

While this program is rightfully known as a blueblood, don’t let its appealing price tag fool you. The Jayhawks may have lost the do-it-all Kevin McCullar (ankle) for the remainder of the season. Even if McCullar returns in the NCAA tournament, the injury would likely hamper his two-way prowess.

Given Kansas’ depleted depth and horrendous floor-spacing in Big 12 play, its ceiling is significantly capped. Bill Self’s bunch could even falter in the first round if it takes on a zone-centric opponent. It will face plenty of this exact defensive scheme in Saturday’s tilt at No. 12 Baylor.

The Bears are stationed as home favorites.

march madness predictions on outside shots

Erik Haslam runs the analytics site referenced above and will return to Outside Shots once conference tournaments begin. Catch this week’s betting preview below.

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Virginia allows betting on in-state schools but not props on in-state players. The remaining states with sportsbooks allow wagering (plus live bets) on college basketball props picks, including in-state teams.

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