College Basketball Rankings: March Madness Odds Favor Purdue; Possible Bets?

One month after the college basketball season concluded, we’ve already seen consequential movement among 2026 March Madness odds. Purdue, which opened at +1900 to win the national title, has bypassed Duke and Houston atop the board at +900. Not only have the Boilermakers retained nearly 70% of their minutes from last season, including the preseason national player of the year front-runner in Braden Smith, but they also added high-impact graduate transfers Oscar Cluff (South Dakota State) and Liam Murphy (North Florida).

However, after cross-referencing the earliest rankings from Bar Torvik, there are other top-rated teams worth exploring. With notable names finding homes in the transfer portal before closing in on NBA draft decisions, let’s assess the betting market for 2026 March Madness odds.

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2026 March Madness Odds: Purdue leapfrogs Duke & Houston

St. John’s Red Storm

Best Available Odds: +2000

Torvik Ranking: #7

Last season, the Johnnies graded in the sixth percentile in catch-and-shoot efficiency on a points-per-possession (PPP) basis, resulting in a second-round exit from the NCAA tournament. Rick Pitino responded by adding Oziyah Sellers (Stanford) and Joson Sanon (Arizona State) to aid their floor-spacing deficit. But among their top-10 protected rotation players, not one had a double-digit assist rate. That includes Ian Jackson (UNC), the heir to the throne. The oft-injured Bryce Hopkins (Providence), a high-usage, mismatch four-man, can only account for so much production without a true point guard on the roster.

Verdict: Overvalued

Arkansas Razorbacks

Best Available Odds: +3000

Torvik Ranking: #9

After the Hogs’ wildly inconsistent regular season, the betting market mispriced them amid their Sweet 16 run. If not for a stunning meltdown against Texas Tech, they were primed to give the national champion Gators a run for their money. Arkansas could return almost 60% of its minutes, including Karter Knox, who averaged 11.5 points on 42.4% shooting from behind the arc over the final 12 games of his freshman season. Top-10 recruits Darius Acuff and Meleek Thomas upgrade this backcourt’s ceiling, and John Calipari nabbed proven frontcourt depth in Malique Ewin (Florida State) and Nick Pringle (South Carolina).

Verdict: Undervalued

Tennessee Volunteers

Best Available Odds: +3500

Torvik Ranking: #11

Given Rick Barnes’ defensive philosophy, the Vols annually possess a fairly high floor. Call me crazy, but that trend could come to a screeching halt. Incoming point guard Ja’Kobe Gillespie (Maryland) compiled a 24.8% turnover rate, an increase of roughly 13 percentage points, when future pro Derik Queen sat last season. Unless five-star forward Nate Ament quickly ascends at the collegiate level, the Vols lack a primary scorer. There’s no Dalton Knecht or Chaz Lanier walking through Thompson-Boling Arena.

Verdict: Overvalued

UCLA Bruins

Best Available Odds: +4500

Torvik Ranking: #6

UCLA tallied a smidge over 10 transition points per game last season (via Synergy), ranking 15th in the Big Ten. Nevertheless, the Bruins gave Tennessee a competitive half before bowing out in the second round of the big dance. New Mexico transfer Donovan Dent averaged 6.7 transition points on his own, which led the country on an individual basis. He’s also surrounded by the best core of catch-and-shoot marksmen in his career, with Skyy Clark, Tyler Bilodeau, and Jamar Brown (UMKC) all hitting at least 40% on three-pointers of this variety.

If Mick Cronin manages to stabilize his interior defense with the oft-maligned Xavier Booker (Michigan State), there’s no telling how far Dent, an All-American point guard, will guide UCLA. Remember that the Bruins’ veteran-laden core will maintain 43% of its minutes from 2024-25, a top-15 ranking among power-five programs.

Last month, I bet on UCLA at +5000. You’ll find this wager in my initial preview for 2026 March Madness odds.

Verdict: Undervalued

Illinois Fighting Illini

Best Available Odds: +6000

Torvik Ranking: #8

After Brad Underwood remodeled an international-heavy roster into a contender, it will have a similar feel in 2025-26. The Illini reeled in Andrej Stojakovic (California) and Zvonimir Ivisic (Arkansas), along with international prospects Mihailo Petrovic and David Mirkovic. Kylan Boswell, Tomislav Ivisic, and Ben Humrichous will reemerge after injuries and illnesses hampered their collective potential last season. Turnovers may rear their ugly head yet again, but from a pure pricing perspective, the market hasn’t accounted for their talent level enough, as Torvik suggests.

Verdict: Undervalued

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