March Madness Bracket Busters: Watch Out For NCAA Tournament Dark Horses

Written By Mo Nuwwarah | Last Updated March 19, 2025

March Madness bracket busters have a special place in tournament lore. Lower-seeded teams who leave your bracket in shambles, bracket busters, can bring some serious value if you believe in them, as they’ll generally have long March Madness odds. That’s usually true of both individual game odds and futures.

So, who are some candidates for this year’s March Madness bracket busters? We’ve selected a team from each of the four regions who might don the slipper in 2025.

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Possible March Madness Bracket Busters In Each Region

Each potential March Madness bracket buster’s Sweet 16 odds are in parentheses.

South: UC San Diego ()

Colleague Eli Hershkovich immediately identified UC San Diego as his March Madness best bet. He likes their chances of upending Michigan.

Coming into the tournament on a 15-game winning streak, it’s clear the Tritons are rolling.

And they fit the profile of a March Madness Cinderella. According to research by Jeff Fogle, playing clean and winning two-point efficiency were the biggest keys to last year’s wave of first-round upsets. Well, UC San Diego excels in these categories. The Tritons rank top six in both own turnover rate and turnovers forced, according to Torvik’s numbers. They’re inside the top 30 in 2-point efficiency and 2-point defense.

UCSD also gets a pretty friendly portion of the bracket. Michigan didn’t have a particularly great season until catching fire in the Big Ten tournament. Their major weakness is their turnover rate, ranking 328th nationally.

South No. 4 seed Texas A&M doesn’t have an efficient offense (315th in eFG%). The Aggies rely heavily on offensive rebounding, which isn’t always sticky in a small sample. They will likely have their hands full in the first round with Yale, which is tournament-tested after beating highly regarded Auburn last year.

West: Drake ()

Missouri is quite a potent No. 6 seed, checking in with a top-16 ranking by KenPom, Torvik, and Haslametrics. So, the Bulldogs will have their hands full from the opening tip.

Drake takes care of the ball (10th in adjusted turnover rate, per Torvik) and plays at a glacial pace. That combination of factors has led to many a March upset, as the Bulldogs will only need a few possessions to swing their way with 3s and turnovers to be right there with the Tigers.

Drake would have another tough matchup after that, with Texas Tech likely on tap. The Red Raiders rank in the top 10 of the advanced analytics sites.

However, if Drake made the Sweet 16, an Elite Eight run would be possible. At that point, it might find a vulnerable opponent. Arkansas and Kansas have had up-and-down seasons. Favored St. Johns, the No. 2 seed, fits the profile of teams that have historically been victimized by early upsets, according to KenPom.

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East: Baylor ()

This one is more injury-related than anything. Duke’s profile is pretty unimpeachable, as they’re elite on both sides of the ball. But could Baylor spring an upset on a weakened Blue Devils team?

The Bears face Mississippi State to open the tournament and are slight underdogs there. That one’s a toss-up, but if Baylor advances, they have the goods to challenge Duke, which may still have key March Madness injuries.

It doesn’t sound like defensive ace Maliq Brown is close to returning from a shoulder injury. More importantly, the Cooper Flagg injury looms as a possibility for sinking Duke. Coach Jon Scheyer said he expects Flagg back for the first round. However, ankle injuries can be fickle and easy to aggravate.

Duke still beat Louisville in the ACC final pretty easily without Flagg, but that doesn’t make them immune to stumbling if Flagg isn’t 100%.

Baylor has an elite talent in future top-five pick V.J. Edgecombe. He has significantly raised his level of play in the second half of the season. Having the best player on the floor (if Flagg is limited or out) could enable Baylor to put real pressure on Duke.

The Bears also have a proven tournament-winning coach, Scott Drew.

More than 92% of Yahoo brackets pick Duke to make the Sweet 16. If Baylor can defeat the Blue Devils, they will be a true March Madness bracket buster, even if they don’t fit the traditional profile, having played in a major conference.

Midwest: McNeese ()

McNeese State dominated its conference this year, as Will Wade continues to build a program there after being banished to purgatory following his scandal-ridden LSU tenure. The market seems well aware of McNeese’s potential, but it’s worth discussing how well they profile and how reasonable their path to the Sweet 16 looks.

Like San Diego, McNeese doesn’t turn the ball over (18th in adjusted turnover rate) and protects the paint on defense (35th in adjusted 2-point%). Essentially, they make you earn everything.

First-round opponent Clemson comes out of the weak ACC and doesn’t stand out in the 2-point department, either on offense or defense.

Possible second-round opponent, No. 4 seed Purdue, looks even more suspect. They closed the season on an ugly slide, losing six of their final nine. They have a huge red flag, as their adjusted two-point defense ranks 348th by Torvik’s numbers. The Boilers rely too heavily on the 3-pointer and don’t take care of the ball particularly well. They look ripe for an early upset.

Don’t be surprised if McNeese usurps these major conference teams’ possible spot in the Sweet 16 against Houston.

Sweet 16 Odds For March Madness Bracket Busters And Others

Do you think your favorite March Madness bracket busters could make a run to the Sweet 16? Scroll down to find the best price on their Sweet 16 odds below.

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