March Madness Odds, Picks, Predictions Friday: Will Xavier Upset Illinois?

Written By Eli Hershkovich | Published at March 21, 2025

On Friday's March Madness odds board, the sixth-seeded Illinois Fighting Illini square off against the 11th-seeded Xavier Musketeers in the first round of the Midwest Region. The Illini opened as 2.5-point favorites, but the market has bumped them to -4.5. Let's examine the odds and my picks for Illinois vs. Xavier odds, including same-game parlay options.

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illinois vs. xavier odds: spread, moneyline, total

march madness best bets: Illinois or xavier ats?

Sean Miller's squad is coming off a thrilling victory over Texas in Wednesday's First Four tilt, but it has a quick turnaround to face the Illini's explosive attack. Kasparas Jakučionis and Co. rank 15th in adjusted offensive efficiency (AdjO), and their ball-screen heavy sets will give the Musketeers some fits.

Nevertheless, my raw numbers give an edge to Xavier as I make this spread closer to Illinois -2. Regular readers of TheLines' college hoops coverage have likely seen my bracket picks for larger pools, which includes the Musketeers in the Final Four.

As noted in my first-round best bets column, Xavier excelled against drop coverage throughout Big East play. That continued versus Texas, tallying 1.26 points per possession (PPP) despite Ryan Conwell's quiet night offensively.

Once again, Miller's motion offense should prevail against an identical defensive structure. Additionally, the Illini's transition defense grades in the 43rd percentile (per Synergy), providing Xavier's uptempo offense with plenty of opportunities to score on the fast break.

Granted, Illinois could notch its fair share of second-chance shots, especially with 6-foot-9 freshman Morez Johnson (wrist) back in the rotation. Collectively, the Illini have gathered the 18th-highest offensive rebounding rate nationally, often crashing the boards in lieu of limiting opponents in transition.

However, I'll trust my numbers and ride the wave with the Musketeers.

Final Betting Thoughts

On Wednesday, I bet on Xavier +3.5 (-106 at FanDuel Sportsbook). You'll discover this pick on our free sports betting Discord channel, where you can enroll in push notifications in the #roles server. Good luck betting on Illinois vs. Xavier odds!

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