March Madness First Round Odds & Picks: Best Bets, Including Missisippi State vs. Baylor
With the best sports betting sites posting first-round odds for March Madness following the Selection Sunday bracket reveal, I've compiled my best bets for individual games, including Michigan vs. UC San Diego. In the coming days, I'll add more picks in this column. I recommend bookmarking this article so you don't miss any first-round predictions.
Click any betting odds throughout this article to place a wager. We highly recommend scanning the best sportsbook promos for more offers. If you're in Illinois, sign up for the bet365 Illinois bonus code. The operator is officially live in the Prairie State!
March Madness first round: odds, picks, predictions
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michigan vs. uc san diego: spread, moneyline, total
Will No. 12 Seed Tritons Upset No. 5 Seed Wolverines?
After winning three games in three days to take home the Big Ten tournament title, Michigan has a quick turnaround against UCSD, arguably the most potent mid-major in the field. For reference, it boasts a top-30 adjusted defensive efficiency (AdjD).
The Wolverines have manufactured 12 wins by four points or fewer, indicating they're likely overvalued at this juncture of the season. In fact, ShotQuality has them outperforming their record by six wins, equivalent to the 11th-most record luck in D-I.
To boot, Michigan ranks 328th in turnover rate nationally, a death sentence against a Tritons defense that accrues takeaways at the second-highest rate. If two-way star Aniwaniwa Tait-Jones and Co. speed up the Wolverines' offense while spacing out their drop coverage at the other end, UC San Diego is primed to keep this one close — if not win outright.
On Sunday night, I bet on the Tritons +3.5 (-110 at bet365 Sportsbook). You'll find this pick on our free sports betting Discord channel, where you can enroll in push notifications to your mobile device by heading to the #roles server.
- Related: First Four Betting Odds & Picks
byu vs. vcu: spread, moneyline, total
Will No. 11 Seed Rams Upset No. 6 Seed Cougars?
Like Michigan, BYU's biggest kryptonite is turnovers, ranking 207th across Division I. VCU doesn't press beyond half-court as often as the Shaka Smart-led Rams, but its pressure-centric defense grades in the 87th percentile on a points-per-possession (PPP) basis, according to Synergy.
Considering the Cougars struggle to defend in transition, Ryan Odom's bunch should have a field day if it's forcing takeaways and dictating the tempo. On Monday evening, I bet on VCU +3.5 (-115 at BetMGM Sportsbook).
Check out our NCAA tournament podcast below for more on this intriguing first-round matchup.
louisville vs. creighton: spread, moneyline, total
Will 'Kalk Drop' Prove Successful?
With Cardinals marksman Reyne Smith (ankle) set to return after missing nearly five full games, Louisville has a path to excel against the Bluejays' drop coverage — at least on paper. This defensive structure is designed against a pick-and-roll to prevent the ball-handler from getting to the rim. It also limits clean catch-and-shoot opportunities.
Smith isn't a threat off the dribble like the Big East's three best shooters (Ryan Conwell, Eric Dixon, and Solo Ball), who all benefited from their ability to create against Creighton in multiple ways. Surprisingly, I favor the Bluejays' defense in this game.
Meanwhile, Creighton standout Ryan Kalkbrenner should have his way around the rim, considering how the Cardinals failed to protect the paint against Clemson's Ian Schieffelin and Duke's Khaman Maluach in their conference tourney.
On Thursday morning, I grabbed some Creighton +3 (-110 at bet365 Sportsbook).
Mississippi state vs. baylor: spread, moneyline, total
Can Bulldogs Combat Zone Defense?
Since the beginning of SEC play, Chris Jans' squad has generated the 12th-worst net three-point clip (-6.8%) nationally. Thus, consistent floor spacing could become a concern if Baylor coach Scott Drew utilizes a zone in this matchup. For context, the Bears have often run it lately because of their banged-up roster and lack of elite on-ball defenders.
Still, during the non-conference slate, Josh Hubbard and Co. shot well above the D-I average from deep (34.2%). Mississippi State played in the most physical conference, so I'm willing to favor the latter results versus a non-SEC foe on a neutral court.
The Bulldogs' size advantage should also help wear down Baylor in the second half. On Friday morning, I bet on Mississippi State ML (-110 at Caesars Sportsbook).
Illinois vs. xavier: spread, moneyline, total
Musketeers' Run Set To Continue?
Xavier's success against drop coverage defenses continued, as it posted 1.26 points per possession (PPP) in its comeback victory over Texas in the First Four. Sean Miller's attack should deliver again versus sixth-seeded Illinois, which runs the same scheme. On Wednesday night, I bet on Xavier +3.5 (-106 at FanDuel Sportsbook).
Check out my complete betting guide for Illinois vs. Xavier odds.
watcH: march madness betting preview
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