March Madness First Four Odds & Predictions: Will Xavier Upend Texas?

CBB Game Previews, College Basketball, March Madness

Written By Eli Hershkovich | Last Updated March 20, 2025

From First Four betting odds to first-round markets, the best sports betting sites haven’t deprived bettors of March Madness odds in the last 24 hours. With the NCAA tournament officially tipping off on Tuesday, as Alabama State faces St. Francis (PA) before North Carolina battles San Diego State, let’s assess my predictions for the First Four in Dayton, Ohio. Below, you’ll also find my best bet for Xavier vs. Texas odds, which concludes the First Four on Wednesday night.

Click any odds to place a wager. We highly recommend scanning the best sportsbook promos for more offers. If you reside in Illinois, register for the bet365 Illinois bonus code. This operator is live in the Prairie State!

Click To Sign Up Now For TheLines’ $1,000 Perfect 16 March Madness Game!

March Madness first four: odds, picks, predictions

Find the best March Madness betting sites to use your state’s top promos and bonus codes.

alabama state vs. st. Francis (pa) odds: spread, moneyline, total

These No. 16 seeds are guided by reliable mid-major guards C.J. Hines and Riley Parker. Hines helped Alabama State clinch the SWAC tournament championship as the No. 4 seed, while fifth-seeded Saint Francis (PA) won the NEC tourney. Although both teams showcase a below-average Division I efficiency from behind the arc, the total could go over if they catch fire — given their reliance on the three-ball.

Per the odds table above, it’s currently lined at 138.

unc vs. san diego state odds: spread, moneyline, total

The Tar Heels were fortunate to clinch an NCAA tournament berth after tallying a single Quadrant 1 win. However, that hasn’t stopped the betting market from bumping them up to -4.5 after opening at -3.5.

Like the previous tilt, this one will boil down to three-point shooting. Before Duke shut down UNC’s floor-spacing attack in the ACC tourney semifinals, R.J. Davis and Co. were shooting 44.6% from deep in their previous nine games. If they revert to their recent form against San Diego State’s hybrid pack-line defense, they should advance to play sixth-seeded Ole Miss in the first round.

In a matchup of No. 11 seeds, I’d consider a bet on the Tar Heels to win outright. Nevertheless, with this price skyrocketing to -185, I’d wait for a live betting opportunity.

American vs. mount st. mary’s odds: spread, moneyline, total

Continuing with the theme of perimeter marksmen, Eagles center Matt Rogers provides his fair share of long-range jumpers, cashing in at a 40.7% clip. Rogers and his teammates will likely excel versus a compact defense that allows the 33rd-highest three-point scoring rate nationally, according to KenPom.

That said, bettors must pay a tax to invest in the Patriot League champs, which opened as a 1.5-point favorite.

xavier vs. Texas odds: spread, moneyline, total

Loading…

As outlined in my column on my initial bracket picks, I have the Midwest Region pegged as the most wide-open of the bunch.

For my money, that starts with Xavier. On paper, Sean Miller’s squad has an edge against Texas’ drop coverage, considering it ranks in the 90th percentile of mid-range efficiency (via CBB Analytics) and possesses elite shotmakers.

On Monday afternoon, I wagered on the Musketeers on the moneyline (-140 at FanDuel Sportsbook). You’ll discover this pick on our free sports betting Discord channel, where you can enroll in push notifications via the #roles server. I’d play them up to -155.

Good luck with your bets on First Four odds!

watcH: March Madness first four betting preview

You can subscribe to the audio-only version of the show on Apple, Spotify, or wherever you find your favorite podcasts.

sportsbook promos for first four odds

Rank

Sportsbooks

Bonus

Features

Play

Up to $1,500

In Bonus Bets

BetMGM Sportsbook Review

Up to $1,500 in Bonus Bets if Your First Bet Doesn't Win*
*Bonus Bets Expire in 7 Days. One New Customer Offer Only. Add’l terms. 21+. Gambling Problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER
Use Bonus Code: THELINES

Play Now