Final Four Most Outstanding Player Odds: Is There A Good Strategy?

Written By Eli Hershkovich on April 2, 2023
Most Outstanding Player Odds

Most college basketball bettors are knee-deep in prep for the more popular Final Four odds, like the spread and totals for San Diego State vs. Florida Atlantic and Miami vs. UConn. But there are still additional markets to consider, such as NCAA Tournament Most Outstanding Player odds. Let’s dive into some intriguing angles for this award. Click on any of the odds below to place a wager.

Most Outstanding Player Odds

Game
(Eastern Time)
(EST)
Adama Sanogo
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+230
Jordan Hawkins
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+240
Isaiah Wong
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+1200
Andre Jackson
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+1200
Jordan Miller
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+1400
Darrion Trammell
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+1500
Matt Bradley
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+1600
Johnell Davis
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+1600
Nijel Pack
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+1600
Lamont Butler
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+2200
Alijah Martin
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+2800
Vladislav Goldin
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+2800
Norchad Omier
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+4000
Nick Boyd
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+5000
Bryan Greenlee
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+5000
Tristen Newton
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+6600
Nahiem Alleyne
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+6600
Alex Karaban
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+8000
Jaedon Ledee
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+8000
Nathan Mensah
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+10000
Wooga Poplar
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+12500
Keshad Johnson
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+15000
Adam Seiko
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+15000

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Historical Context Behind MOP Award

Last season, I dug into the science behind who’s cashed in on their odds. For starters, only five names have won both regional and NCAA Tournament Most Outstanding Player this century. Hence, that would theoretically exclude Jordan Hawkins (UConn), Nijel Pack (Miami), and Darrion Trammell (San Diego State).

Marquis Nowell (Kansas State) wound up winning the honor in the East Region, so no one from FAU’s roster applies to this notion.

We nearly witnessed an exception to the “rule,” though, as Armando Bacot was on the verge of nabbing his second MOP of the 2022 NCAA Tournament — had North Carolina upended Kansas in the final minute. Now-former Jayhawks wing Ochai Agbaji, who entered the Final Four at +500 to win it, took home the award instead.

While Agbaji delivered a 21-point showing (via 6-of-7 shooting from the perimeter) against Villanova in the national semifinal, he didn’t represent Kansas’ star in the title game. That nod went to David McCormack, who accrued both a double-double and the game-winning hook shot. McCormack even notched 25 points and 9 boards in the game prior.

Therefore, it’s not an exaggeration to say the Most Outstanding Player odds are a semi-crapshoot. Nevertheless, that doesn’t mean they aren’t worth a roll of the dice. Let’s dig into one player and his odds from each Final Four team.

Most Outstanding Player Odds: 4 Candidates

Andre Jackson (+1200):

Given the fact that UConn is the odds on favorite () to cut down the nets on April 3, it’s no surprise that Adama Sanogo and the aforementioned Hawkins find themselves at the forefront of this market. However, the do-it-all Jackson has shined in the Big Dance as well — highlighted by an 8-point, 10-assist, 9-rebound performance versus Gonzaga — while averaging 33 minutes per game.

If Sanogo or Hawkins is plagued with foul trouble in either matchup, assuming UConn plays on Monday, Jackson could very well steal this honor. His workload is significant since he isn’t capable of a monster scoring outing.

Lamont Butler (+2200):

Outside of a foul-plagued evening in the Sweet 16, Butler is a mainstay in San Diego State’s rotation. The Aztecs possess plenty of depth, yet Butler’s two-way prowess gifts Brian Dutcher with his second-best playmaker in transition — behind Trammell. He’s actually ahead of Trammell in regards to their respective assist rate (25.4%). If Butler’s pull-up jumper is in rhythm like it was versus Creighton — and SDSU’s defense dominates along the way — he’ll contend for the MOP award.

Alijah Martin (+2800):

Full disclosure, my model gives Florida Atlantic a more sizable price tag to claim the trophy than the market suggests (). Should the Owls pull off the unthinkable, it would require a pair of standout scoring outputs from the athletic 6-foot-2 guard. But per the initial notion, none of FAU’s personnel is set high enough to make these Most Outstanding Player odds intriguing.

Norchad Omier (+4000):

Since Miami must bypass UConn in order to advance, I’d rather snag a longshot in this market if I was betting it at all. Jordan Miller certainly has an advantage matchup versus the Huskies’ Alex Karaban come Saturday, so his +900 odds aren’t as absurd as they may appear on the surface. There isn’t much value on the table after his 27-point affair against Texas, though. Enter the crafty Omier, who’s a more efficient scorer and rebounder versus bigger bodies than his 6-foot-7 frame indicates.

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