March Madness Final Four Odds, Picks, Predictions: Best Bets, Including Florida vs. Auburn
With the best sports betting sites posting many Final Four betting markets among March Madness odds, I've compiled my best bets for both matchups, including my (potential) hedging strategy for Florida vs. Auburn odds. The Gators are favorites in the opening tilt, and Duke is a vs. Houston in the nightcap. Let's examine my wagers, including player props for your same-game parlays.
Click any Final Four odds throughout this article to place a wager. We highly recommend checking out the best sportsbook promos for more offers.
final four betting odds
Use the best March Madness betting sites to find sportsbook promos and bonus codes for your picks. You'll see the latest national title odds below, courtesy of BetMGM Sportsbook.
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florida vs. auburn odds: spread, moneyline, total
Hedge On Auburn Futures?
I've placed bets on Bruce Pearl's squad to cut down the nets in each of the last two seasons. The most recent came almost a full year ago at +4000 odds.
Unless Johni Broome's status changes over the next 24 hours, I don't plan on hedging my futures ticket. Last year, I opted for the same strategy with my Clemson Final Four bet, and the Tigers were ousted by Alabama in the Elite Eight. There's certainly risk involved, so bettors vying to play it cautiously can lock in a profit by betting on the Gators to win outright.
Auburn's Biggest Advantages
When these SEC rivals met on Feb. 9, the Tigers closed as 11-point favorites at Neville Arena. Even with Florida guard Alijah Martin on the bench, the Gators led by double digits for much of the contest before tallying a 90-81 win. They shot 39.4% from three-point territory, which will be difficult to replicate in the Alamodome if the shooting backdrop is a factor.
With favorites winning 12 straight games from the Sweet 16 onward, I recognize why bookmakers felt the need to inflate this line, but my raw numbers disagree. For reference, I make the spread closer to Florida -1. Broome and Co. are well-equipped to handle the Gators' bigs, and their flex offense has an edge against a defense that ranks in the 36th percentile on a points-per-possession basis while guarding off-ball action (per Synergy).
To boot, this outcome will depend on which team accrues enough extra possessions — whether via takeaways or on the glass.
I'll side with Auburn, especially when it comes to forcing turnovers. If Broome's shoulder is near 100%, his scoring prowess in the paint and knack for producing second-chance opportunities should also take a toll on Florida. He's averaged six offensive rebounds per game over the last three contests.
walter clayton jr. props: over/under points scored?
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Florida has flown over the total in 11 straight games, correlating with Walter Clayton Jr. dominating the stat sheet. In fact, he's gone over his points prop in all but one of the Gators' NCAA tournament games. However, Clayton runs into Denver Jones, one of the premier defenders across college basketball.
I expect Jones to shadow Clayton throughout, and Auburn's potential to slow down the tempo would lessen his shot volume.
Despite whiffing on Mark Sears' points prop in last year's Final Four, I'm returning to the well by fading an elite-level scorer. On Saturday afternoon, I bet on Clayton to score 20 or fewer points (+100 at BetMGM).
Good luck with your bets on Auburn vs. Florida Final Four odds!
duke vs. houston odds: spread, moneyline, total
Will Blue Devils Meet Their Kryptonite?
After falling to Duke in last year's Sweet 16 as two-possession favorites, the Cougars seek revenge. Houston is about three hours away from San Antonio, so Cougars fans will have a reasonably easy trip to support their squad. Nevertheless, creating any home-court edge against Duke is an arduous task.
Houston’s top-ranked, ultra-aggressive defense undoubtedly influenced Tennessee’s 5-of-29 three-point shooting (17.2%) on Sunday, but Duke is a different beast. In the NCAA tournament, the Blue Devils have shot 47.3% around the arc. They’re paced by veteran guard Tyrese Proctor, knocking down 64.3% of his triples during the Big Dance.
As much as Cooper Flagg headlines the NCAA Tournament Most Oustanding Player odds, whichever team sustains its three-point variance will likely cover the spread. They've accrued a net clip of +15.1% or better from behind the arc in the tourney.
Moreover, the Blue Devils' last loss came versus ACC-rival Clemson, their most physical opponent until this test. The Cougars will not only challenge Duke in the rebounding department, but their pristine floor spacing (39.7%) should deliver mismatches against the Blue Devils' drop coverage.
Ultimately, I'll pass on betting this line pre-flop, instead monitoring live odds for a potential in-game wager on Houston. The market continues to price Duke like it's the two-time defending champions. Until proven otherwise, the Blue Devils remain the team to beat.
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