Eli’s March Madness Bracket Picks, Upset Predictions: Vulnerable One-Seeds Among Final Four Odds?

With the 2025 NCAA Tournament field and March Madness odds finalized, there’s no better time to break down my bracket picks. You’ll find my rough draft of Final Four selections throughout this column. You can follow along with our free printable bracket, opening first-round odds, and first-round picks.

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2025 final four odds

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south Region: No. 1 seed auburn ()

Before the 2025 NCAA Tournament bracket was announced on Sunday night, I didn’t consider the Tigers one of the clear-cut favorites to advance to San Antonio. For one, Auburn dropped three of its final four games entering the Big Dance. According to ShotQuality, Bruce Pearl’s squad has also received positive variance regarding its perimeter defense, surrendering a 29.2% clip while its opponents’ SQ is closer to 34%.

Nevertheless, I’m sticking with my preseason bet, holding a +4000 ticket in my back pocket. With Wooden Award contender Johni Broome triggering a rim-dominant attack, the Tigers possess the depth, experience, and two-way prowess to reach the Final Four.

The committee didn’t do Auburn any favors, considering that its potential second-round tilt against Louisville would tip off in Lexington, Ky. However, the region shakes out quite well otherwise. The Tigers could avoid a potential scare in the Sweet 16 if fourth-seeded Texas A&M is upset by Cinderella candidate Yale or UC San Diego.

In the lower half of the South Region, Iowa State point guard Keshon Gilbert (groin) was ruled out for the entire tourney. The third-seeded Cyclones were pegged as a title contender throughout the season, yet injuries to Gilbert and his backcourt mate, Tamin Lipsey (groin), have shifted their Final Four odds to .

As I mentioned above, these bracket picks are in pencil. But as of this publication, I don’t plan on hedging my Auburn futures during the Tigers’ regional matchups.

West Region: No. 3 seed texas tech ()

Although top seeds Florida and St. John’s are atop the betting board among West Region odds, the Red Raiders showcase the most value, according to my raw numbers.

Some bettors are quick to point out that the Red Raiders have played five neutral site games this season and have yet to cover any of those games, going 0-5 against the spread. That 0-5 ATS mark is the worst of any team in the field.

Those same handicappers fail to acknowledge that JT Toppin, KenPom’s fifth-most valuable player nationally, didn’t suit up in their loss to the abovementioned Aggies. They were also bounced in the Big 12 tournament semifinals without the services of Darrion Williams and Chance McMillian. Both will reportedly suit up against UNC Wilmington in the first round.

Don’t Lose Sight Of Offense

Assuming Williams and McMillian are healthy, Texas Tech’s sixth-ranked adjusted offensive efficiency (AdjO) can go toe-to-toe with the Gators in a possible Elite Eight clash. Stylistically, the Red Raiders’ potency on the boards contrasts nicely with Florida and St. John’s, given their ability to dictate a slower-paced affair against teams built to thrive in transition.

Moreover, I hold a place in my heart for stellar free-throw shooters after the countless bets I’ve lost at the charity stripe. Texas Tech ranks 12th among tournament teams in that department, accumulating a 76.4% clip.

I’m buying Grant McCasland as the breakout coach of the 2025 NCAA Tournament — with the Red Raiders Final Four-bound in their home state for the second of my bracket picks.

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east Region: no. 1 seed duke ()

Regular readers of TheLines’ college hoops coverage know I’ve never been one to shy away from fading the Blue Devils. This year’s bunch doesn’t fit that mold.

Despite hailing from the weak ACC, Duke touts the best net rating in the KenPom era. Even with Cooper Flagg’s ankle setback amid an ACC tournament title run, I would argue the Blue Devils benefited from relying on others to produce down the stretch of games.

The one caveat to the third of my bracket picks is Swiss Army knife Maliq Brown (shoulder), who is expected to miss at least the first two rounds of Big Dance. Per CBB Analytics, Duke allows 4.6 points per 100 possessions more without Brown on the court. If he returns by the Sweet 16, the Blue Devils are primed to take advantage of the weakest region.

Midwest Region: no. 11 seed xavier ()

This is not a typo. In 10 of the last 11 NCAA tournaments, a seven-seed or higher has punched its ticket to the Final Four. The Midwest Region, especially the lower half, is the most wide-open for my money. The Musketeers are positioned to capitalize.

As I noted on the podcast below, bettors must avoid tunnel vision regarding conference tournament results. While Xavier blew a double-digit second-half lead against Marquette in the quarterfinals, it has manufactured a top-30 net rating since Jan. 25.

High-level guard play wins in March, and the Musketeers boast a bevy of explosive shot creators, led by Indiana State transfer Ryan Conwell. To begin the tournament, they’re primed for success against Texas and Illinois’ drop coverage, as they tallied at least 1.11 points per possession (PPP) in nine of their 10 games against Big East foes that employ this defensive scheme.

In Sean Miller’s illustrious coaching career, he’s yet to reach the final weekend of the college basketball campaign. Relative to the betting market, the Musketeers are an intriguing pick to head to San Antonio, particularly if Houston center J’Wan Roberts is sidelined for multiple games.

Last week, I tossed some pizza money on Xavier to make the Final Four at 110-1 odds. Whether you tail (or fade) one or more of my selections, good luck with your bracket picks!

Related: March Madness Injury Report

Where Can You Bet On College Basketball Player Props?

Below is the list of states that forbid gambling on college basketball player props:

• Arizona
• Colorado
• Louisiana
• Maine
• Maryland
• Massachusetts
• Mississippi
• New York
• Ohio
• Pennsylvania
• South Dakota
• Tennessee
• Vermont
• Virginia
• West Virginia

To boot, Illinois prohibits betting on local schools or in-state player props. The remaining states with legal online sportsbooks, such as North Carolina, authorize wagering on college basketball player prop odds, including local teams.

watcH: march madness betting preview

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