March Madness Bracketology Odds & Picks: 3 Mid-Major Cinderellas
Receiving a top-five seed in the 2025 men’s NCAA tournament is a notable accomplishment, but that standing could also set up an early exit. In recent memory, Cinderellas aren’t very kind. Over the last decade, we’ve seen a pair of No. 16 seeds deliver first-round upsets for the first time in March Madness history, and three No. 15s advanced the Sweet 16. Heck, Saint Peter’s tallied an Elite Eight appearance in 2022. Let’s assess the latest bracketology and correlated March Madness odds, focusing on which mid-major teams may provide an unprecedented Final Four run.
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bracketology predictions: final four odds
1. UC San Diego Tritons: UC San Diego Tritons +7000 on DraftKings
Per Bracket Matrix, which combines projections from the most accurate bracketologists on the interweb, Eric Olen’s squad is best-positioned for a 12-seed in March Madness. Bettors have recently taken an interest in the Tritons’ odds to make the Final Four — with their price down to +6500 at FanDuel Sportsbook.
UC San Diego has wasted no time in its first year of March Madness eligibility. Already a viable at-large contender, the Tritons boast a top-30 adjusted defensive efficiency (AdjD) on Haslametrics — neck-and-neck with notable Final Four contenders like Wisconsin and Michigan. They’re 10-2 in true road games, including a win at 24-5 Utah State. They rank top-10 at both ends of the turnover war, only giving it away on 13.9% of their possessions while forcing opponents to cough up the ball at more than 1.5 times that rate (23.4%).
Do-it-all wing Aniwaniwa Tait-Jones oozes with a name that most have never come across until the mid-afternoon 5-12 upset materializes.
2. McNeese Cowboys: McNeese State Cowboys +5000 on DraftKings
Last year, McNeese commanded respect in the betting market despite serving as the quintessential upset pick gone wrong in a blowout loss to Gonzaga. This time, Will Wade’s team has a similar yet more dangerous aura.
Like the Tritons, the Cowboys are a projected 12-seed among bracketology odds and force turnovers at a top-20 rate, thanks to five players averaging at least one steal per matchup. Their stingy defense offsets their unimposing length. As long as they avoid a perimeter shootout (228th nationally in 3-point attempt rate), their roster is capable of a deep run in the right region.
Injury-wise, Providence transfer Alyn Breed, who averaged 17.5 points in the first two matchups before suffering a knee injury, is unlikely to return this season.
3. Bradley Braves: +25000
Unlike Missouri Valley leader Drake, Bradley must win Arch Madness to nab a ticket to the Big Dance. If the Braves upend the Bulldogs, Northern Iowa, or an upset bidder, they would likely earn a 13-seed for the NCAA tournament.
Brian Wardle’s crew is atop D-I in 3-point efficiency (41.1%), ahead of Villanova and Houston by almost an entire percentage point. Only one player in his rotation hasn’t attempted a single triple all season. Historically, there’s a greater chance of a mid-major upset when a team can space the court and win the battle of long-range variance.
Loyola-Chicago accomplished this feat in 2018, shooting at least 38.1% from deep in its four wins before Michigan took care of the Ramblers in San Antonio — the same site as this year’s Final Four.
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