Manchester City Vs. RB Leipzig: 2022-23 Champions League Round Of 16 Odds, Expected Goals

Written By Dan Tracey on March 14, 2023
champions league odds

The UEFA Champions League Round of 16 continues Tuesday, March 14 when Manchester City takes on RB Leipzig. The match begins at 4:00 p.m. ET and will be broadcast streaming platforms like fuboTV, Paramount+ and Univision. Each team won on their home pitch in the last two matchups, and their last meeting resulted in a 1-1 draw, making this a highly-anticipated matchup. As part of TheLines‘ soccer coverage, let’s take a look at Champions League odds for this match.

Manchester City Vs. RB Leipzig Champions League Odds

Bettors should be aware during the Champions League knockout rounds that the three-way moneyline is only for 90 minutes plus stoppage time. 

If the aggregate-goal score after two legs is tied, there will be two 15-minute periods of extra time. However, it’s possible for a Champions League match to go to extra time with a Leg 2 score that was not tied. In this case, three-way moneyline bets for Leg 2 are graded for the team that leads after 90 minutes. 

If you are looking for a moneyline bet that pays out on the team to move on to the next round, look for “To Advance” or “To Qualify” props.

Manchester City Team Preview

With a 1-1 draw being recorded in Germany, this Champions League tie between Manchester City and RB Leipzig lies firmly in the balance. Not many expected a draw in the first leg and not many expect a draw in the second.

Manchester City looks to make good use of their home advantage. A win here advances City to the final eight.

Will this be the year in which Pep Guardiola finally delivers the Champions League to the club’s Abu Dhabi-based owners? That is the question he is hoping to answer with an emphatic yes.

The cream of European soccer’s crop has other ideas in mind. If City is to finally rule the roost on the continent, they may have to succumb to Arsenal in the Premier League title race. As good as this City side is, it is not quite the vintage of the past few years. There are chinks in the armor and competing on both fronts may be the one thing that catches them out.

Do they sacrifice the English league title to be the kings of Europe? That is another conundrum that manager Guardiola may have to ask himself. Before he does, Guardiola needs to ensure the visit of RB Leipzig is dealt with accordingly.

RB Leipzig Team Preview

Although RB Leipzig is certainly in the outsiders batch when it comes to looking at this Champions League futures market, they are not a team that you want to be paired with in the knockout phase. Manchester City quickly learned that last month and, after being held to a 1-1 draw in Germany, the Red Bull-backed team now looks to be full of energy when they return to the Etihad.

They hope for better fortunes than the last time that City visited the Etihad. They may have an impressive three goals on their travels but, unfortunately for them, they conceded six at the other end. 

It was a learning experience and a harsh one, it must be said. Now the Bundesliga outfit looks to show that they improved under the tutelage of manager Marco Rose and gatecrash their way into Europe’s elite.

With the likes of Christopher Nkunku and Josko Gvardioal among their ranks, RB Leipzig certainly has some exciting talents to call upon. A strong performance may only add a couple million to their respective price tags. Both names have been linked with a move to the Premier League and neither would look out of their depth if they made the switch.

Could this be the last hurrah for this latest iteration of the RB Leipzig squad? Not if these two men and their talented manager can help it.

Champions League Knockout Rounds Bracket

Since the UCL draws for new matchups after the Round of 16, there’s no set bracket for fans to follow just yet.

Manchester City vs. RB Leipzig Expected Goals

In a sport where scoring has extremely high variance, opportunities to score and opportunities allowed has become a more respected measure of the quality of a team’s play. Expected goals (xG) measures the quality of a shot based on several factors, including shot type, shot angle and distance from goal. Similarly, expected goals allowed (xGA) measure the quality of a team’s defense. Subtracting expected goals allowed from expected goals equals expected goal differential (xGD) and offers an overall advanced measure of a team.

Manchester City7153+1214.94.1+10.8
RB Leipzig71410+411.18.3+2.8

Matchup History

These two teams met on three separate occasions in the Champions League, all of which occurred in the past 18 months. Not only that, but the head-to-head record is as even as it can be.

Both teams won on home soil during last season’s group-stage clashes. A 6-3 win for City at the Etihad and a 2-1 victory for RB Leipzig at the Red Bull Arena is how it panned out during 2021/22. A 1-1 draw in Germany was how it unfolded just a couple of weeks ago.

Manchester City vs. RB Leipzig Champions League Odds: Bets To Consider

Manchester City and Over 3.5 Goals +170

After being held at the Red Bull Arena last month, Manchester City hopes to finally get the job done against RB Leipzig and in doing so, make safe passage to the Champions League’s last eight. That passage was blocked off slightly after the 1-1 draw. But with home advantage being afforded to Pep Guardiola’s men, I believe that they take full advantage of such scheduling.

City has a litany of attacking talent manager Guardiola can call upon. We all know what Erling Haaland can do on occasions such as this, but the problems for RB Leipzig do not stop there.

Admittedly, it may be difficult to name just who supports Haaland in attack, but with names such as Phil Foden, Riyad Mahrez, and Jack Grealish all capable of playing in wide forward roles, goals should not be in short supply.

This does not mean that City are immune from conceding goals at the other end. Far from it – with the defensive personnel being chopped and changed, it means continuity has sometimes been lost.

In this instance, I do not think it will be enough to foil the Etihad outfit, but a goal from their German counterparts would certainly help my cause. That is why I am backing the hosts and over 3.5 total goals in this one. 

Manchester City Over 1.5 First Half Goals +240

To expand on matters further, I am also hoping Manchester City waste no time in what I imagine will be at least three goals for them on the night. They wasted opportunities in Germany, so there shall be no such waste back in England.

The quicker City completes the task at hand, the quicker Pep Guardiola can rest his key names. With the Premier League title race heating up, odds are, the last thing he will want is a war of attrition in the Champions League.

The incentive for last season’s domestic champions is obvious. Win in midweek and they move closer to finally getting their hands on European club soccer’s most coveted prize – a prize that they are still yet to get their hands on.  The extra incentive is to be as fresh as possible for the continued fight that they are currently undertaking with Arsenal. With success on both fronts being the target, squad management is going to be absolutely vital.

Get the job done and get it done early. That will be the mantra before the upcoming meeting with RB Leipzig and this is why I think the Bundesliga outfit will be blown away by the arrival of the interval.

As you can see above, I am backing four goals or more in total and therefore, two of those at halftime would tee up the first tip rather nicely. Even better if City gets them both before the break, as it also means this second tip is a winner as well.

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