Manchester City Vs. Bayern Munich: 2022-23 Champions League Quarterfinal Odds, Expected Goals

Written By Dan Tracey on April 11, 2023
Champions league odds

Manchester City and Bayern Munich kick off the UEFA Champions League quarterfinals on Tuesday, April 11. The match begins at 3 p.m. ET and will be broadcast on streaming platforms including fuboTV, Paramount+ and Univision. The winner will have the edge before the second leg, which takes place April 19 in Germany. As part of TheLines‘ soccer coverage, let’s take a look at Champions League odds for this match.

Manchester City Vs. Bayern Munich Champions League Odds

Bettors should be aware during the Champions League knockout rounds that the three-way moneyline is only for 90 minutes plus stoppage time. 

If the aggregate-goal score after two legs is tied, there will be two 15-minute periods of extra time. However, it’s possible for a Champions League match to go to extra time with a Leg 2 score that was not tied. In this case, three-way moneyline bets for Leg 2 are graded for the team that leads after 90 minutes. 

If you are looking for a moneyline bet that pays out on the team to move on to the next round, look for “To Advance” or “To Qualify” props.

Manchester City Team Preview

After eventually disposing of RB Leipzig in the previous round of the competition, Manchester City now finds themselves paired with further German opposition in the quarterfinals. The only problem: this opposition looks a lot tougher. Although they have gone through a state of flux in recent weeks, that may not be enough to derail the kings of Germany.

Meanwhile, the current kings of England remain in serious danger of losing their crown. And with Arsenal currently at the top of the Premier League and showing no signs of slowing, Pep Guardiola may have to pivot his full attention to European success instead. Publicly, Guardiola definitely won’t wave the white flag. Privately, the former Barcelona and Bayern boss may have to concede domestic defeat.

The weekend’s Premier League fixtures may help the Spaniard make one tough decision. But, he will face another in terms of who to name in his starting 11. Especially as doubts remain over Erling Haaland’s fitness. The Norwegian was a one-man wrecking crew against RB Leipzig, as he scored five goals in the second leg. And if he becomes fully fit for the visit of Bayern, that will give City an almighty pre-match boost.

Bayern Munich Team Preview

Although the Bayern Munich board is known to be ruthless in the pursuit of victory, nobody expected them to be as ruthless as they were just a couple of weeks ago. Even though the team found themselves second in the Bundesliga, that was not good enough. Especially as the Bavarian-based outfit has won 10 successive German league titles. Because of this, even the slightest sign of failure would need addressed.

The team addressed it in most brutal fashion. Julian Nagelsmann was shown the Allianz Arena exit door, even though he’d helped secure qualification to the last eight of the Champions League. At the same time, Thomas Tuchel was quickly ushered through the entrance.

The man who led PSG to the 2020 final — a game where the French outfit lost to Bayern — has taken charge of this soccer juggernaut. He is tasked with not only earning an 11th successive league title but also a return to the top step of Europe.

This means after already having to face Borussia Dortmund on a domestic front — subsequently wrestling back the top spot in the league — Tuchel’s baptism of fire is no cooler in midweek.

While a neat subplot exists as Bayern travels to the Etihad, it being Joao Cancelo’s journey with them. The Portuguese defender made a temporary switch in January but could play a part in Manchester City’s permanent exit from this season’s competition.

Champions League Knockout Rounds Bracket

Image via UEFA Champions League official site

Manchester City vs. Bayern Munich Expected Goals

In a sport where scoring has extremely high variance, opportunities to score and opportunities allowed has become a more respected measure of the quality of a team’s play. Expected goals (xG) measures the quality of a shot based on several factors, including shot type, shot angle and distance from goal. Similarly, expected goals allowed (xGA) measure the quality of a team’s defense. Subtracting expected goals allowed from expected goals equals expected goal differential (xGD) and offers an overall advanced measure of a team.

Manchester City8223+19194.6+14.4
Bayern Munich8212+1916.37.8+8.5

Matchup History

Manchester City and Bayern Munich may have already met on six separate occasions but the stakes have never been this high. With each of their previous meetings coming in the group stage, this week’s meeting at the Etihad will be the first in the knockout phase.

Going into this seventh between the two, the record currently stands at three wins each. The most recent of these was during the 2014-15 season, as City earned a dramatic 3-2 win in front of their own support.

Manchester City vs. Bayern Munich Champions League Odds: Bets To Consider

Under 2.5 Goals ()

When Manchester City and Bayern Munich take to the field on Tuesday, an embarrassing amount of attacking riches will do so. It would be very easy to get lured into betting on an abundance of goals at the Etihad. Two European heavyweights squaring off and trading shots across 90 minutes. That is how many would describe the game’s likely unfolding. And when you look at the team sheets, you can understand why.

However, you also need to look past the players on the field and at the two men in the respective technical areas. Pep Guardiola in the blue corner and Thomas Tuchel is in the red.

That pairing may well mean that this game of Champions League soccer resembles more a game of chess. Although Guardiola squaring off with Julian Nagelsmann could have led to tactical warfare, the installation of Tuchel at Bayern has just ramped it up a notch.

If you cast your minds back to the 2021 Champions League final, Guardiola’s City went up against Tuchel’s Chelsea. Just a single goal proved the difference between the two, as the respective managers tweaked their formations throughout.

Therefore, I am going to go against the grain and hope to squeeze out some value from the clash in Manchester. In my opinion, the value comes in backing two or fewer total goals on Tuesday, currently priced at +125.

Bayern Score First (+145)

As good as Manchester City are this season, they have shown that they are a team that can be got. They may go on to win important soccer fixtures but they are susceptible to conceding the odd goal along the way. Something that was not as pertinent in previous years. And although Erling Haaland has been unleashed on unsuspecting defenses both home and abroad this season, the overall balance of the team has now become out of kilter.

That is not to say that City is worse because of the installation of their Norwegian battering ram. More the evolution of the team is going through something akin to growing pains. And this is what teams are starting to take advantage of.

Liverpool managed to draw first blood during their recent Premier League meeting at the Etihad. Unfortunately for Jurgen Klopp’s men, it only served to wake the beast that is City’s attack and they would then succumb to a 4-1 away defeat.

With this in mind, I have opted for Bayern to break the deadlock on Tuesday. And when you combine that with my prediction above, it may prove the only goal of the game — at worst it may mean the visitors return to Germany with a draw.

The away goals rule is no longer the wildcard when it comes to European knockout soccer. But, if Bayern can avoid defeat in Manchester, it will certainly tip the balance of power in their favor. The first goal could mean everything in this tie. I am backing the visitors to get it. 

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