NBA Finals Player Props: Will Luka Doncic Avoid Foul Trouble In Game 4?

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Written By Eli Hershkovich | Last Updated
Luka Doncic Props

On the brink of elimination, Mavericks star Luka Doncic — the 2023-24 regular-season scoring champion — looks to rebound versus the Celtics in Friday’s Game 4 of the NBA Finals (8:30 p.m. ET on ABC). After Dallas began its fourth-quarter rally in Game 3, he fouled out in regulation for the first time in his career. Let’s assess if there are any valuable betting angles for Luka Doncic player props or series-long NBA Finals odds for this do-or-die matchup.

Click any of Doncic’s NBA betting odds below to place a wager. These prices are the best available in your state.

NBA Finals Game 4: Luka Doncic Player props

Some would argue Doncic tallied more complaints than assists in Dallas’ gut-wrenching Game 3 defeat. What’s undeniable is his fall from grace, compiling the same number of shot attempts as points (27). Fouling out with 4:12 left was the icing on his unappetizing cake, going under his points prop for the second time in this series.

With the aging Al Horford playing more minutes on Wednesday, Doncic often bailed him out with stepback 3-point attempts, shooting 1-of-7 from deep overall.

His problematic defense didn’t cost the Mavs before the NBA Finals, but it certainly has on this stage. In the past three series, Doncic has surrendered the highest blow-by percentage on drives over the last 10 years (via Second Spectrum). The Celtics have diced him up 67.7% of the time in these instances.

It’s reminiscent of LeBron James’ first appearance in the Finals, with the veteran-led San Antonio Spurs completing a four-game sweep.

Nevertheless, the market hasn’t adjust Doncic’s points prop from Game 3, currently stationed at . Although bettors may look to attack his under again, the lack of movement is justified with Dallas’ season on the ropes.

Will Doncic Dissapoint Again?

During the first two contests versus Boston, Doncic shot 48.5% on pull-up jumpers, which he attempted 16.5 per game. On Wednesday, his shooting efficiency dipped 21.3 percentage points in this department. While he’s dealt with ankle and knee injuries throughout the playoffs, his shot selection was subpar in Game 3. I’d expect the opposite in desperation mode for Game 4.

If Doncic refines his shot selection, his points prop over, 3-pointers made (), and the Mavs’ first-half moneyline () may all cash in.

Still, Dallas’ first-half motivational edge is baked into the betting market. I covered this topic extensively in our Game 3 betting guide. Once again, Dallas has a cheaper price tag on the full-game ML than in the first 24 minutes.

Finals MVP Odds Movement

At most of the best sports betting sites, Doncic had bigger pre-flop MVP odds than the Mavericks’ odds of winning the championship. As Dallas hopes to save its season, his price point of is now identical to the Mavs’ series odds.

The logic adds up. If Dallas becomes the first team to overcome a 3-0 series deficit in NBA playoff history, Doncic is a de facto lock to win the Finals MVP. However, unless you’re looking for a lotto ticket, the 4.4% implied probability of his MVP odds says it all. Even with Celtics center Kristaps Porzingis (torn tendon) ruled out for Game 3, Doncic and the Mavs failed to take advantage. It’s not worth betting on them, even at juicy odds.

But is there a reasonable chance they send this series back to Boston? Per the table below, the Game 4 ML odds are near a coin flip. The best price for Dallas to emerge victorious is .

NBA Finals Game 4 Odds

Photo by Associated Press