Luka Doncic Trade: Lakers Become Fringe Contenders Among NBA Title Odds

Luka Doncic now plays for the L.A. Lakers. In the wake of NBA social media’s collective brain-melting, bettors are left to grapple with the meaning of this new reality. What does the Luka Doncic trade mean for both teams involved?

Let’s look at what NBA odds say about the Doncic-for-Anthony-Davis swap.

NBA Finals Odds

Lakers Gain Championship Equity In Luka Doncic Trade

The Lakers showed out in Madison Square Garden on Saturday night, authoring a 128-112 win over the Knicks despite the absence of Davis. The tremendously talented big man is out briefly after sustaining a minor injury.

That will be the last game this season L.A. plays without Doncic on its roster. When he’ll join the team remains up in the air as he’s out with his calf injury. He’s supposed to return soon.

Despite L.A.’s fairly lofty standing — a game out of fourth in the West — they weren’t a realistic contender. Opponents have outscored them on the season. One has to scroll down to the ninth-place Suns to find a West team with a worse differential. Cleaning The Glass’ numbers, which strip out garbage time, are slightly friendlier, tabbing the Lakers at +0.5.

That’s still only good for 14th in the NBA. The market reflected this reality, with consensus NBA Finals odds around +4000.

Now, the market is a bit more bullish. Despite the Lakers parting with Davis and recently elevated starter Max Christie, they’re as short as +1200 (bet365).

For the long term, pundits praise the Lakers and slander the Mavericks. ESPN’s Kevin Pelton awarded the Lakers an A and the Mavericks an F. The Athletic’s John Hollinger said the trade had “disaster potential” for Dallas.

However, Pelton did note he isn’t sure the Lakers are better right now. While Doncic is a talent upgrade, he may represent a fit downgrade at the moment.

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Do Lakers Have Any Big Men Left?

L.A.’s roster remains imperfect in spite of the boon of bringing in another superstar. One distinct question remains in the wake of trading away Davis: is there anyone left on this roster taller than 6-foot-9 who can play?

ESPN lists Trey Jamison III, Christian Koloko, and Jaxson Hayes as the only centers on the roster. Hayes started in Davis’ stead, but he’s never made a profound impact in six pro seasons, maxing out at 20 MPG. Maxi Kleber, whom the Lakers also acquired in the deal, is 6-foot-10, but he spends most of his time on the perimeter.

The Lakers will surely look to make more moves. They still have Austin Reaves, whose contract has a positive value and who offers diminishing returns as a ball-handler behind LeBron James and Doncic now. Pundits have noted they also retained a first-round pick and a few swaps.

Look for the Lakers to bring in a big man or two to round out this roster and see if they can push for one final championship as James plays his final seasons.

In that vein, these odds may still improve for the better if more agreeable deals are found.

Mavericks’ Odds Sink Following Trade Of Luka Doncic

On the flip side, the market is not in love with Dallas’ side of this deal. While the team proclaimed it’s making moves in pursuit of a title as it wants to improve the defense, the betting market panned the move in much the same way as those covering the NBA.

Before the trade, Dallas had sunk to eighth in the West, largely thanks to Doncic’s injury. They sported consensus odds around +2000 after opening at +1100 following last year’s NBA Finals run.

Now, Dallas has dipped further to +3500 at most betting sites.

Though Kyrie Irving and Anthony Davis make for a formidable pick-and-roll pairing, Dallas didn’t get enough value to bolster the current or future versions of its roster. Had they received more draft picks, they may have been able to add more talent to this year’s team.

However, they’ll now proceed with their three highest-paid players on the wrong side of the 30: Irving, Davis, and Klay Thompson. Both the present and future suddenly look cloudier in Big D.