Lakers NBA Finals Odds Shorten Amid Surge Following Luka Doncic Trade

The L.A. Lakers made headlines with the seismic Luka Doncic trade. However, after the subsequent Mark Williams deal fell through, everyone assumed they were targeting next year for serious contention. Well, the new-look Lakers might be ready immediately. Following a sizzling 12 wins in 14 games, Lakers odds have shortened.

Let’s examine what has happened to the Lakers’ NBA odds in the weeks following the trade and what the numbers say about their new team.

Full Selection Of L.A. Lakers Odds

Before making the Doncic-for-Anthony-Davis swap, the Lakers were around +4000 (~2% implied probability) in the NBA finals odds. That number is around a consensus +1000 (~9% implied probability).

That’s quite a jump, and it’s due to a few factors.

For one, the hot streak has rocketed the Lakers into the No. 2 seed in the West. Nobody is catching the Thunder, but Basketball Reference’s playoff probabilities now project the No. 2 (25.3%) and No. 3 (26.2%) seeds as the most likely landing spots for L.A. They’re projected to finish with 50-51 wins.

That would mean at least one series at home in the playoffs. L.A. is half a game ahead of Denver. The teams still play twice more, each team hosting once. Those games loom large since both teams hope to have home court in a possible second-round series.

The Athletic’s John Hollinger often emphasizes that, historically, 50 wins and a top-three seed are prerequisites for serious contention. The Lakers look likely to meet those thresholds, and their true talent looks higher than 50 wins since they’ve been much better than that after trading for Doncic.

Advanced Metrics Loving The Lakers

Trading season — the Doncic deal and the failed Williams deal — left the Lakers with a major hole on their roster: they didn’t have a proven center. That raised two serious issues for this team that seemed unsolvable until the offseason: How would they get stops, and how would they rebound?

The numbers thus far say the Lakers have laughed these problems off.

While Doncic and LeBron James would form the core of a potent offense, neither player is known for his defensive prowess. Pundits expected the Lakers to bleed points.

Instead, the exact opposite has happened. Since Feb. 2, the Lakers have the best defense in the NBA. Per Cleaning The Glass, their 107.5 defensive efficiency would trail only the Thunder’s historically excellent unit in the full-season rankings and by less than a point.

Overall, the Lakers’ +9.7 differential would rank third, ahead of juggernaut Boston (+9.2).

The glass hasn’t been an issue, either. L.A.’s offensive rebound rate has gone from 23rd to 16th. Their defensive rebound rate has gone from 18th to 12th.

Can Anyone Stop OKC?

As the Lakers have surged, some other would-be contenders in the West have stagnated. Since the beginning of February, the Grizzlies and Rockets have gone a combined 12-18, each outscoring the other over that time frame. Both teams now look like second-round target practice.

The team training its sights on either has not slowed down a bit. Oklahoma City continues to look like a juggernaut. The Thunder have gone 14-2 with an absurd +16 differential since Feb. 1.

OKC’s +13.6 differential for the season marks them as one of the strongest teams in modern history. For reference, that’s better than the Warriors managed in either 2015-16 (+11.5, 73 wins) or their first season with Kevin Durant (+12.7).

The Thunder’s Western Conference price has lengthened from around even money about a month ago to odds-on favorites.

Presuming either the Lakers or Nuggets — also on fire for the past month — emerge to the Western Conference Finals, that series is shaping up as a matchup between a steely veteran contender and a young, hungry squad. OKC’s dominance is creating an attractive price for any of its rivals. Bettors have to decide if a Thunder appearance in the finals is as inevitable as the metrics say.

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