LA Dodgers Odds: MLB Win Totals, Projections, Possible Bets
Written By Mo Nuwwarah | Published at March 14, 2024
Welcome to TheLines.com's 2024 Spring Training preview of MLB odds. We'll preview every team's 2024 season with a focus on MLB win totals and World Series odds. We'll evaluate each team's roster and see if there are any wagers worth considering. Today, we'll look at L.A. Dodgers odds.
The Dodgers put together a strikingly similar season to the Braves in 2023: triple-digit wins followed by a playoff flop against a lower-seeded division rival. The juggernaut increased its firepower even more with the addition of superstar Shohei Ohtani, albeit with the expectation that his pitching days are on ice for the year.
Will Ohtani be the difference-maker that propels the Dodgers to the top of the NL once again?
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Dodgers Odds: An Overview And What The Projections Say
First, let's compare the market on Dodgers odds to publicly available projections from FanGraphs and Baseball Prospectus.
- 2023 wins: 100
- Market wins: /
- FanGraphs wins: 94.1
- Baseball Prospectus wins: 100.6
It's not often we see a 103-win market price, but that's what adding Ohtani, fellow Japanese superstar Yoshinobu Yamamoto, and Rays fireballer Tyler Glasnow to a 100-win team will do.
The latter two may be just as crucial as Ohtani. L.A. had an elite offense and a bullpen that led MLB in WAR. Starting pitching ultimately sank them. You know things have gotten rough when Lance Lynn, in the midst of his worst professional season, takes the ball in a do-or-die playoff game. The Dodgers will hope they can avoid a similar desperation state this season.
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Evaluating The Dodgers Roster
Bats And Defense
Is it good to have three of the top four MVP odds candidates at the top of your lineup? That seems good.
Sure, the bottom of the order has some questions. But when Teoscar Hernandez -- a cleanup hitter in 2023 who projects for a 111 wRC+ -- hits out of the seven-hole, you've built a hell of a lineup.
Mookie Betts, Ohtani, and Freddie Freeman make for the scariest possible start to any pitcher's day. And it doesn't get a whole lot easier from there with elite-hitting catcher Will Smith and thumper Max Muncy following up.
This might be the best offense in MLB, provided everyone stays healthy. The only real room for nitpicking comes in the form of possible age-related decline. Betts, Freeman, and Muncy are all on the wrong side of the aging curve. The bench skews quite old as well.
Last year's Dodgers produced a defense that ranked somewhere between decent and great, depending on your metric of choice. They figure to take a step back this year due to the aforementioned aging and the fact that Betts will reportedly give shortstop a go. Betts played 98 innings at short last year and produced terrible metrics. It's unlikely he can handle it on a full-time basis.
Pitching
This is where the Dodgers get considerably less scary. Yamamoto is a possible ace with a really strong track record in Japan. He should be the least of the Dodgers' concerns, but after that, things get a little iffy.
Glasnow is a great pitcher, but he's a great pitcher who can't be counted upon to produce a full season of starts. In fact, it's quite the opposite -- the Dodgers can likely count on him to miss time injured. Last year's 120 innings and 21 starts were both career highs for the towering righty. The innings he pitches will be high-quality, but how many will be managed?
Bobby Miller had a promising rookie season. He looks like a standout, but there's always the chance of regression in a larger sample.
Paxton has spent the past few years making Glasnow look durable. The Canadian had fired 21 total innings post-2019 before last year's 96-IP resurgence. It's anyone's guess what he ends up providing.
A bunch of prospects who haven't yet proven they can get MLB hitters out will round out the rotation, along with whatever the Dodgers can get from Clayton Kershaw and Walker Buehler. The latter missed all of last season after Tommy John, while the former had shoulder surgery and seems to be targeting a late-summer debut. Given that he's fallen apart before the playoffs the past two seasons, that might be for the best from a playoff availability standpoint.
The bullpen will be great if everyone repeats last year's numbers when the Dodgers led MLB in reliever fWAR. However, there's quite a bit of downside here. Joe Kelly, Ryan Brasier, and Blake Treinen average 36 years of age between them. Their performances could collapse at any moment, and all are penciled into the top five.
Evan Phillips is a potentially exciting closer, but he'll need some support.
Possible Bets On Dodgers Odds
The Dodgers have a fearsome offense and a talented but risky pitching staff. They should have another excellent season and are very, very likely to win the NL West.
In fact, if you don't mind tying a bunch of money up for a long period of time, I don't think the Dodgers to win the division at -450 (81.8% implied probability) on DraftKings Sportsbook is the worst bet. I agree with Baseball Prospectus that they're more like 90% than the low-80s. I'm on the record as low on Diamondbacks odds. The Padres just added Dylan Cease but still have huge holes in their lineup and a terrible outfield. I'm actually a little intrigued by the Giants, but to say they are going with a threadbare pitching staff is being kind.
It's hard to see a way any of these teams can catch L.A. That being said, I prefer not to tie up money that long, laying huge juice like this, but I wouldn't blame anyone for taking the Dodgers.
Instead, I'll simply be hoping that Atlanta can do enough to outduel them at the top of the NL, as I detailed in my report on Braves odds.
Best of luck if you decide to bet Dodgers odds this spring.
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