LA Angels Odds: MLB Win Totals, Projections, Possible Bets
Welcome to TheLines.com's 2024 MLB odds preview series. Here, we'll preview every team's 2024 season with a focus on MLB win totals and World Series odds. We'll evaluate each team's roster and see if there are any wagers worth considering. Today, we'll look at Los Angeles Angels odds.
The Angels, of course, experienced the most high-profile player loss of the offseason, with Shohei Ohtani moving 40 miles across the metro to Chavez Ravine. Years of falling short of expectations have given way to a low-70s win total.
Considering the Angels won just 73 games with Ohtani securing topping AL MVP odds, what’s in store without him for 2024?
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Angels Odds: An Overview And What The Projections Say
First, let's compare the market on Angels odds to publicly available projections from FanGraphs and Baseball Prospectus.
- 2023 wins: 73
- Market wins: /
- FanGraphs wins: 77.1
- Baseball Prospectus wins: 73.4
FanGraphs likes the Angels a bit more than the market and Baseball Prospectus. The team has several ascendant young hitters that could help form the core of the next Angels contender. But the team really didn’t make any major additions aside from retooling the bullpen, so it’s hard to see room for meaningful improvement overall.
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Evaluating The Angels Roster
Bats And Defense
On paper, the Angels have a decent lineup. It’s certainly a deep one. The top half is anchored by all-time superstar Mike Trout, and the young core of Zach Neto, Logan O’Hoppe and Nolan Schanuel provides quality through the back half. Taylor Ward and Anthony Rendon still hit the ball when they are upright.
However, therein lies the rub. How many games will the Angels get out of their position players? Trout and Rendon are nearly sure bets to get hurt – each last played something approaching a full season in 2019. Ward had dealt with several injuries, and O’Hoppe played only about a third of the season in what was supposed to be his starting debut.
Much of the depth that shored these positions up has moved on – Mike Moustakas, Randal Grichuk, CJ Cron, Eduardo Escobar, Gio Urshela, Hunter Renfroe, and so forth. A farm system made barren by poor development and win-now trades won’t replenish these spots.
L.A. had a weak defense last season by most tracking systems. Statcast was particularly unimpressed, rating the unit bottom five by OAA, though DRS was more charitable and thought the group was average. O’Hoppe’s framing rates poorly, though his bat should mostly make up for that. Neto might be the only plus defender who starts every day.
Pitching
The Angels have competence in the rotation, but it’s of the least exciting sort. They have assembled a collection of No. 3 and No. 4 types, none of whom have any real upside.
Reid Detmers, Patrick Sandoval, and Griffin Canning should all continue to get batters out at a clip that will keep them employed. But on this Angels team, they might merely serve as trade bait that will help restock the depleted farm system when contenders are inevitably seeking starting pitching at the deadline.
The restocking of the bullpen was centered around bringing back Matt Moore and signing Robert Stephenson. The projections are quite bearish on Moore, but he still missed more than his share of bats and could be a fine setup man. Stephenson looks solid and may supplant Carlos Estevez as the closer. Estevez was a walking-blown lead in the second half of 2023.
The depth is solid here with Luis Garcia, Adam Cimber, and Jose Soriano, but to what end? Again, the veterans may simply be trade bait if and when the Angels are hovering around .500 near the deadline.
Possible Bets On Angels Odds
The Angels have assembled an OK Major League roster without a lot of big weaknesses. The lineup should be decent when healthy, though the defense will likely be subpar. Pitching shouldn’t be terrible either, although there’s little depth in case of injury.
However, I expect inevitable injuries will chip away, and the team will start looking to move veterans near the deadline. It’s hard to see any of these pitchers, aside from Detmers (entering his age 24 season), being major contributors to the next Angels contender.
Even in the best-case scenario where almost everyone stays healthy, this team probably still winds up with a low-80s win total. That likely won’t cut it for a wild card spot in a deep and tough AL. Sharing a division with three teams that have real aspirations as contenders will hurt as well.
The Angels have a decent nucleus of young position players coming up. But the team just lacks upside everywhere, as even those players will likely top out as solid starters.
I expect the Angels to ultimately land near their win total and don’t plan to make any wagers on them.
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