Each week, The Lines gives you a glance at movement in betting markets in the NFL. Both sportsbooks and bettors now have a good idea of which teams are true contenders to win this year’s Super Bowl, and which teams will be going on vacation in January as there are just two weekends left in the regular season. Here is a look at market movement ahead of Week 16 and an early betting preview of Week 17.
NFL Week 16 market movement
The following lines are from FanDuel Sportsbook:
|Game||Lookahead line||Current spread||Moneyline|
|Minnesota at New Orleans||Saints -6.5||Saints -6.5||Saints -306, Vikings +262|
|Tampa Bay at Detroit||Buccaneers -9.5||Buccaneers -12||Buccaneers -586, Lions +452|
|San Francisco at Arizona||Cardinals -2.5||Cardinals -6||Cardinals -260, 49ers +215|
|Miami at Las Vegas||Raiders -1.5||Dolphins -2||Dolphins -123, Raiders +111|
|Atlanta at Kansas City||Chiefs -10.5||Chiefs -10.5||Chiefs -550, Falcons +410|
|Chicago at Jacksonville||Bears -5||Bears -7.5||Bears -430, Jaguars +340|
|Cincinnati at Houston||Texans -8.5||Texans -7.5||Texans -360, Bengals +290|
|Cleveland at New York Jets||Browns -11||Browns -6.5||Browns -300, Jets +245|
|Indianapolis at Pittsburgh||Steelers -2||Steelers -1.5||Steelers -120, Colts +102|
|New York Giants at Baltimore||Ravens -9.5||Ravens -9.5||Ravens -460, Giants +360|
|Carolina at Washington||Washington -2||Washington -1||Washington -110, Panthers -106|
|Denver at LA Chargers||Chargers -2.5||Chargers -3||Chargers -154, Broncos +130|
|LA Rams at Seattle||Seahawks -1||Seahawks -1||Seahawks -122, Rams +104|
|Philadelphia at Dallas||Eagles -1||Eagles -3||Eagles -164, Cowboys +138|
|Tennessee at Green Bay||Packers -4||Packers -3||Packers -164, Titans +138|
|Buffalo at New England||Bills -4.5||Bills -7||Bills -320, Patriots +260|
The biggest Week 16 market moves and adjustments from last week’s lookahead lines include:
- Miami at Las Vegas: Dolphins from +1.5 to () vs. Raiders
- San Francisco at Arizona: Cardinals from -2.5 to () vs. 49ers
- Chicago at Jacksonville: Bears from -5.5 to () vs. Jaguars
- Indianapolis at Pittsburgh: Steelers from -2 to () vs. Colts
- Buffalo at New England: Bills from -4.5 to () vs. Patriots
The Bills have clinched the AFC East for the first time since 1995. Buffalo also moved up to the No. 2 seed in the AFC playoff picture following the Steelers upset loss to Cincinnati as a 14-point favorite. A year ago in Week 16, the Patriots (6-8) beat the Bills 24-17 as a 7-point home favorite. That victory gave New England its NFL record 11th straight division title. Now the Patriots will miss the playoffs for the first time in 12 years. The Patriots have not had a losing season since 2000, head coach Bill Belichick’s first season as coach of the Patriots. Since FanDuel Sportsbook opened the Bills as a 7-point favorite over New England this week, bettors have been piling on Buffalo hoping for a stampede victory on the road.
What a turnaround season for the Miami Dolphins, who started last season 0-8. The Dolphins are now 9-5 this season and remain in the playoff hunt. The Dolphins are still outside the top 10 in this week’s power rankings at TheLines, but Miami does sit in the final playoff spot in the AFC playoff picture. There was a big market move here from last week’s lookahead line of Miami +1.5, to the Monday opener of -2.5, and now -3 over the Raiders. Bettors like Miami’s motivation to win this week at Las Vegas.
Still, with Miami traveling to Buffalo for Week 17, their chances for a playoff berth are less than likely according to fivethirtyeight. The data-driven news and analysis site gives the Dolphins a 32% chance to make the playoffs and the Ravens 86% probability. Baltimore has final games against the Giants and at Cincinnati.
The game of the week is the Rams (9-5) and Seahawks (10-4) Sunday afternoon in Seattle. The Rams beat the Seahawks 23-16 in Week 10, but LA imploded last week in a 23-20 loss to the previously winless New York Jets. The Rams were a 17-point favorite. Both the Seahawks and Rams remain Super Bowl contenders in the futures market. The line is tight for this AFC West first place showdown with the Seahawks a point favorite and the over/under is at points. A 40% chance of rain is in the forecast early Sunday in Seattle with light winds, so monitor the weather as kickoff nears. Both teams play division games in Week 17 with the Rams hosting the Cardinals and the Seahawks traveling to Arizona to face the Niners. So a Rams win over the Seahawks gives them the advantage into Week 17, but a Seahawks win secures the division title and a home playoff game with a chance to still move up from their current No. 3 NFC playoff position.
The most popular teams and Week 16 spread bets as of Thursday at FanDuel Sportsbook were:
- Bills 93% of bets and 95% of money (handle) over Patriots
- Cardinals 79% of bets and 90% of money over 49ers
- Dolphins 76% of bets and 88% of money over Raiders
- Bears 75% of bets and 84% of money over Jaguars
- Browns 75% of bets and 83% of money over Jets
- Eagles 71% of bets and 82% of money over Cowboys
- Bears 75% of bets and 84% of money over Jaguars
The Eagles were -1.5 on Monday and are up to -2.5 at Dallas at FanDuel. Cowboys running back Ezekiel Elliott (calf) may be a game-time decision after missing last weeks game against the 49ers.
The Steelers were -3 over the Colts on Monday, but are now following the 27-17 upset loss to the Bengals as 14-point favorites on Monday Night Football. Cold temperatures in the 20s will hit Heinz Field Saturday before moving to the high 30s Sunday as both teams push for division titles behind their 2004 draft class quarterbacks Ben Roethlisberger and Philip Rivers.
NFL Week 17 lines
NFL Week 17 lookahead odds from FanDuel Sportsbook.
|Week 17 Games||FanDuel Opener|
|Atlanta at Tampa Bay||Buccaneers -7|
|Baltimore at Cincinnati||Ravens -13.5|
|Pittsburgh at Cleveland||Browns -3.5|
|Arizona at Los Angeles||Rams -4|
Week 17 betting breakdown
The menu will be light for early lookahead lines this week as Week 17 presents so many different scenarios. All 16 games are division contests, and some teams will have clinched playoff spots or positioning. Some teams may elect to rest starters or key players.
That could be the case with Aaron Rodgers and the Green Bay Packers, who currently hold the No. 1 seed in the NFC and can clinch it with a Week 16 win over the Titans and a Seahawks loss to the Rams. Same with the Kansas City Chiefs, who will secure the No. 1 seed in the AFC with a Week 16 win (or tie) over the Falcons or a Steelers loss (or tie) to the Colts.
Green Bay plays at Chicago in Week 17, and a scenario could play out with the Bears being favored should they keep their playoff hopes alive with a Week 16 win at Jacksonville. The Chiefs host the Chargers in what will likely be a meaningless game for both teams.
Those two contests, along with others – including the Bills vs. Dolphins – will have betting lines withheld until more information is available.
The Rams and Cardinals contest in Los Angeles will be of great significance if both teams win in Week 16. The Cardinals (8-6) currently hold the seventh and final playoff position in the NFC. The Steelers and Browns game in Cleveland would be for the AFC North division title if the Steelers lose to the Colts and Browns beat the Jets in Week 16.