Each week, The Lines gives you a glance at movement in betting markets in the NFL. Both sportsbooks and bettors are starting to get a good feel of which teams are true contenders and which teams are also-rans as we get to the halfway point in the season. Here is a look at market movement ahead of Week 8 and an early betting preview of Week 9.
NFL Week 8 market movement
The biggest Week 8 market moves and adjustments from last week’s lookahead lines to now include:
- Ravens from -5.5 to -3.5 at home vs. Steelers
- Eagles from -3.5 to -9.5 at home vs. Cowboys
- Chargers from -1 to -3 at Denver
- Saints from -3 to -5.5 at Chicago
Some of the biggest moves this week are taking place in the over/under market with several totals moving lower than they were initially. Part of this could be due to wind speeds and weather changes at a number of stadiums.
- Pittsburgh at Baltimore – 49 down to 46.5
- Tennessee at Cincinnati – 55.5 down to 52.5
- New England at Buffalo – 44 down to 41
- Las Vegas at Cleveland – 55.5 down to 50.5
- Minnesota at Green Bay – 55.5 down to 50.5
- New Orleans at Chicago – 45 down to 43.5
The Monday Night Football contest between the Buccaneers and Giants at MetLife Stadium in New Jersey has also seen the total drop from 48 to 45.
Week 7 had the second-lowest scoring week of the season, averaging 49.85 points per game. A market correction has been seen the last two weeks – with 17 Unders, 10 Overs and 1 push. That said, scoring is still averaging a record 50.65 points per game this season – up just over 5 points per game from last season.
NFL Week 9 lines
|Matchup||Lookahead line||Current line (Nov. 8)|
|Green Bay at San Francisco||49ers -1||Packers -7.5|
|Baltimore at Indianapolis||Ravens -4||Ravens -1.5|
|Carolina at Kansas City||Chiefs -10||Chiefs -9.5|
|Chicago at Tennessee||Titans -6.5||Titans -6.5|
|Denver at Atlanta||Falcons -4||Falcons -4.5|
|Detroit at Minnesota||Vikings -2||Vikings -4|
|Houston at Jacksonville||Texans -4||Texans -6.5|
|New York Giants at Washington||Washington -3.5||Washington -3|
|Seattle at Buffalo||Seahawks -1.5||Seahawks -3|
|Miami at Arizona||Cardinals -6||Cardinals -5.5|
|Las Vegas at LA Chargers||Chargers -1.5||Chargers -1.5|
|Pittsburgh at Dallas||Steelers -9.5||Steelers -14.5|
|New Orleans at Tampa Bay||Buccaneers -4.5||Buccaneers -4.5|
|New England at New York Jets||Patriots -7||Patriots -9.5|
Week 9 betting breakdown
Some key Week 9 games between top teams that should generate major betting action include:
Seattle at Buffalo: The Bills () are a slight home underdog on the lookahead line, and both teams will be coming off key division games while looking to stay in first place. Statistically, the Seahawks () have the league’s worst defense in total yards, allowing 479 yards per game. That’s more than 50 yards per game worse than the next two teams. The Seahawks and Bills rarely meet, and Seattle has won the last two meetings in 2016 and 2012 – which was Russell Wilson‘s rookie season. Wilson passed for one touchdown and rushed for three TDs in a 50-17 Seahawks beatdown of the Bills.
Chicago at Tennessee: Another NFC versus AFC match-up. This game may not get as much hype or betting interest, but the first place Titans () and Bears () are firmly in the expanded playoffs mix through the first half of the season. The Bears are still getting priced like pretenders, and the advance lookahead line is Titans -6.5 after the Bears were beaten down by the Rams 24-10 on Monday Night Football while generating just 279 yards of offense. It was the Bears fourth straight game with less than 280 yards total offense, and only the Jets, Giants and the Football Team in Washington are worse on total offense this season.
New Orleans at Tampa Bay: This key NFC South game will be for first place as the Saints () offense and QB Drew Brees try to move the ball on the NFC’s No. 1 defense of the Buccaneers (). The Buccaneers are 3-0 at home and the defense is allowing a NFC-low 291 yards per game and 4.8 yards per play. Tampa’s defense has been even better over its last three games, allowing 263 yards per game and 4.3 yards per play. Two of those showings came against top-10 offenses in the Raiders and Packers. Buccaneers QB Tom Brady’s 18 touchdown passes are second in the league behind Russell Wilson. The Saints are 2-0 in the division, and the Buccaneers are 1-1 as New Orleans beat Tampa Bay 34-23 in Week 1 thanks to a 3-0 turnover advantage. With no preseason games, neither team was efficient on offense in the season opener, with the Bucs putting up 310 yards and the Saints producing 271 yards. Each team also had more than 100 penalty yards. All six Saints games have gone Over the total this season, but that likely changes in this big game with both teams hitting their defensive stride the last three games.
Green Bay at San Francisco: This is a rematch of last season’s NFC Championship game when the 49ers buried the Packers, 37-20. Both teams will be coming off division games, and the lookahead line has the 49ers (-1) favored over the first place Packers (+1). San Francisco is in last place in the toughest division in football, but after suffering through more injuries than most teams, the 49ers played their best two games the last two weeks in beating the Patriots and Rams. Still, if the playoffs started this week, the 49ers would not be participating. The new expanded playoff format has seven teams in each conference making the postseason, and the top seed getting a bye. Green Bay is still a leading contender for that honor.