The Recency Report: NFL Week 5 Market Moves And Week 6 Lookahead Lines

The Lines is here to provide you additional sports betting resources and information you can bet on. That includes advance lookahead lines for the following week’s NFL games along with some of the weekly market moves, storylines and betting situations to assist you in your pursuit of profit.

NFL Week 5 market movement

Increased scoring is one of the stories of the season so far, as NFL games have averaged a combined 51.3 points per game through the first four weeks - the most scoring in the Super Bowl era (post-1966).

There are eight more contests that have over/under totals of 51 points or more in Week 5. That includes the Sunday night game in Seattle between the Seahawks (-7) and Vikings with the highest posted total of the week at 57. Overcast skies and up to a 75% chance of rain throughout the day is in the forecast Sunday as Russell Wilson looks to pad his MVP stats against a Vikings pass defense allowing 291 air yards per game. However, the Seahawks are allowing a league high 476 yards per game on defense, including a whopping 401 passing yards per game. Still, Seattle has moved up to be the highest rated NFC team in this weeks power rankings.

The Bears and Buccaneers game Thursday night kicked off Week 5 action and there was a line move as Tampa Bay dropped from a 5.5-point favorite to -3.5 at kickoff. Sharp Bears bettors cashed in as Chicago rallied for a 20-19 win and got the victory despite being out-gained by nearly 100 yards.

Some other notable lines and storylines since the Week 5 odds were released by FanDuel Sportsbook include:

• Philadelphia at Pittsburgh: The point spread is holding steady at Steelers -7. The total has moved up a point to 44.5 despite the Steelers holding opponents to 290 yards per game to rank No. 2 in the NFL. Pittsburgh's game against Tennessee was canceled last week due to a COVID-19 outbreak on the Titans while the Eagles upset the 49ers in San Francisco, 25-20. However, Philadelphia had just 267 yards of offense at 4.5 yards per play and they continue to compete without a number of key players - making the bump of the total here even more curious.
• Indianapolis at Cleveland: This number has dropped off the key number of 3 with the Colts down to a 1.5-point road favorite at FanDuel and now -1 at DraftKings Sportsbook.
• Carolina at Atlanta: The winless Falcons (0-4) opened as a 3.5-point favorite at FanDuel and are down to -1.5 vs the Panthers (2-2). Bettors saw the Falcons get pounded by the Packers Monday night 30-16 while the Panthers prevailed impressively as a home underdog over the Cardinals 31-21. Carolina goes for its third straight win as underdog.

The two biggest underdogs are getting a little support. Kansas City opened -13.5 over the division rival Las Vegas Raiders and the line is down to -11.5 at FanDuel. Baltimore opened -13 over Cincinnati and the Ravens are now -12 at DraftKings with bettors monitoring the status and health of QB Lamar Jackson (knee) after he missed a second straight day of practice Thursday.

ALSO READ: Best NFL Week 5 offers from legal US sportsbooks

Week 6 lookahead lines and matchups

Las Vegas, New England, New Orleans and Seattle have byes in Week 6. The anticipated game between the Bills and Chiefs scheduled for Thursday in Buffalo is likely being rescheduled for Sunday, Oct. 18 as the Bills game vs. the Titans in Week 5 has been pushed to Tuesday due to the COVID-19 outbreak on the Titans.

Cleveland at Pittsburgh: The Browns and Steelers game looks like the biggest of the week outside of Chiefs vs. Bills as the two teams could be playing for first place in the AFC North. The Browns enter Week 5 at 3-1 while the Steelers are 3-0 and Ravens are 3-1.

ALSO READ: Player Props search tool - How to find the best odds for NFL Week 5

NFL Week 6 odds

How to use lookahead lines

We’ll be updating the NFL advance lines each week to allow you a sneak peek at the projected lines for the following week’s games. This advance information from a big bookmaker provides lessons in understanding lines and projections before the current week’s games are played.

The tendencies for many bettors is to overreact to previous weeks’ scores and results. The lookahead lines provide a sense of stability from the linemaker, who is unbiased in setting the lines in advance without the information from the current week’s contests.

Bettors can also gain an edge or find value in the lines once the current week’s lines are released. They do this based on not only a potential overreaction to the recent week’s results, but by using information they have on teams, including power rankings. Making adjustments is part of the process, along with formulating an opinion on certain teams. This can be based on personnel, injuries, situations and stats that come to light as the season progresses.