Each week, The Lines gives you a look at movement in betting markets in the NFL. Both sportsbooks and bettors are starting to get a good idea of which teams are true contenders to win this year’s Super Bowl and which teams will be going on vacation in January as we enter the home-stretch of the season. Here is a look at market movement ahead of Week 14 and an early betting preview of Week 15.
NFL Week 14 market movement
Odds shown here are from FanDuel Sportsbook.
|Game||Lookahead line||Current spread||Moneyline|
|New England at LA Rams||Rams -6.5||Rams -5||Rams -240, Patriots +200|
|Arizona at New York Giants||Cardinals -3||Cardinals -3||Cardinals -158, Giants +134|
|Dallas at Cincinnati||Cowboys -3.5||Cowboys -3.5||Cowboys -196, Bengals +164|
|Denver at Carolina||Panthers -4||Panthers -3||Panthers -172, Broncos +144|
|Houston at Chicago||Texans -1||Texans -1.5||Texans -120, Bears +102|
|Kansas City at Miami||Chiefs -7.5||Chiefs -7||Chiefs -340, Dolphins +275|
|Minnesota at Tampa Bay||Buccaneers -6||Buccaneers -6.5||Buccaneers -300, Vikings +250|
|Tennessee at Jacksonville||Titans -9.5||Titans -7.5||Titans -355, Jaguars +285|
|Indianapolis at Las Vegas||Colts -2.5||Colts -3||Colts -148, Raiders +126|
|New York Jets at Seattle||Seahawks -13.5||Seahawks -13.5||Seahawks -850, Jets +590|
|Atlanta at LA Chargers||Falcons -1.5||Falcons -2||Falcons -142, Chargers +120|
|Green Bay at Detroit||Packers -7.5||Packers -7.5||Packers -430, Lions +340|
|New Orleans at Philadelphia||Saints -6.5||Saints -7||Saints -330, Eagles +265|
|Washington at San Francisco||49ers -5.5||49ers -3.5||49ers -188, Washington +158|
|Pittsburgh at Buffalo||Steelers -2.5||Bills -1.5||Bills -124, Steelers +106|
|Baltimore at Cleveland||Ravens -2||Ravens -2.5||Ravens -138, Browns +118|
The biggest Week 14 market moves and adjustments from last week’s lookahead lines include:
- Pittsburgh at Buffalo: Steelers from -2.5 to ( ) vs. Bills
- Tennessee at Jacksonville: Titans from -9.5 to ( ) vs. Jaguars
- Washington at San Francisco: 49ers from -5.5 to (-3.5) vs WFT
The Pittsburgh at Buffalo game is a battle of first place teams and will be key when it comes to playoff positioning. The significant adjustment in odds from the Steelers being favored to being an underdog came after Pittsburgh lost at home to Washington this past Monday, 23-17. Later on Monday, the Bills followed with a win over the 49ers, 34-24. The over/under has dropped to and none of the last five Steelers games have eclipsed the total.
Both DraftKings and FanDuel sportsbooks opened the Titans at -9.5 and have moved Tennessee down to -7.5 at Jacksonville. The Titans are taking 77% of the bets at both DraftKings and FanDuel with more money being bet on Tennessee at FanDuel Sportsbook. The Jaguars (1-11) have just one win but are playing hard and more competitive – coming off a 27-24 overtime loss at Minnesota. The Jaguars are 6-6 ATS this season. The Titans (8-4) loss to Cleveland last week dropped Tennessee into a first place tie in the AFC South with Indianapolis. DraftKings Sportsbook still has the Titans (-200) favored to win the division over the Colts (+150).
Baltimore (7-5) at Cleveland (9-3) features two of the most run-heavy teams in the NFL. The Ravens are No. 1 in the league in rushing at 169 yards per game and the Browns are No. 2 at 158. Both teams average 32 rushing attempts per game, but it’s the Browns run defense that has performed a little better, allowing 104 rushing yards per game to the Ravens’ 111. The Browns have been playing better over the past month, going 4-0 while the Ravens have fallen flat going 1-3 in their last four games while dealing with more health and coronavirus issues. The Ravens did crush the Cowboys 34-17 this past Tuesday with 294 rushing yards and also buried the Browns 38-6 in Week 1. The data driven analysis site FiveThirtyEight gives the Browns a 92% chance to make the playoffs and the Ravens a 61% chance to make the postseason with Baltimore’s final three games against losing teams Jacksonville, New York Giants and at Cincinnati in Week 17.
The most popular teams and Week 14 spread bets as of Friday at DraftKings Sportsbook were:
- Colts 85% of bets and 95% of money (handle) over Raiders
- Chiefs 85% of bets and 89% of money over Dolphins
- Texans 88% of bets and 84% of money over Bears
- Packers 85% of bets and 85% of money over Lions
- Saints 82% of bets and 81% of money over Eagles
- Cowboys 85% of bets and 84% of money over Bengals
NFL Week 15 lines
NFL Week 15 lookahead odds from FanDuel Sportsbook.
|Game||Opening Spread||Current Spread|
|LA Chargers at Las Vegas||Raiders -3.5||Raiders -3.5|
|Buffalo at Denver||Bills -5.5||Bills|
|Carolina at Green Bay||Packers -8.5||Packers|
|Chicago at Minnesota||Vikings -6||Vikings|
|Detroit at Tennessee||Titans -8.5||Titans|
|Houston at Indianapolis||Colts -6||Colts|
|Jacksonville at Baltimore||Ravens -11.5||Ravens|
|New England at Miami||Dolphins -2.5||Dolphins|
|San Francisco at Dallas||49ers -3||49ers|
|Tampa Bay at Atlanta||Buccaneers -2.5||Buccaneers|
|Seattle at Washington||Seahawks -3.5||Seahawks|
|New York Jets at LA Rams||Rams -13.5||Rams|
|Philadelphia at Arizona||Cardinals -6.5||Cardinals|
|Kansas City at New Orleans||Chiefs -3||Chiefs|
|Cleveland at New York Giants||Browns -3.5||Browns|
|Pittsburgh at Cincinnati||Steelers -11.5||Steelers|
Week 15 betting breakdown
There is just one Week 15 contest between elite teams but it’s a huge one with the two conference favorites expected to make the Super Bowl.
Kansas City (-3) at New Orleans: The top two teams in our current power rankings and favorites to reach the Super Bowl may be the most wagered-on game of the month. Chiefs QB Patrick Mahomes (-500) is now the clear favorite to win the league MVP award, and his stats are off the charts with a league-high 3,815 passing yards along with 31 TD passes and just 2 interceptions. The Chiefs offense is back to No. 1 in the league, averaging 427 yards per game and 6.5 yards per play. Those stats are even stronger over Kansas City’s last three games as they’re averaging 483 yards per game at 7.0 yards per play.
Mahomes tops the QB ratings charts and he’s averaging a yard per pass play more against the blitz this season than a standard pass rush. The Saints pass defense allows 212 yards per game to rank No. 4 in the league and will be the toughest test of the season for Mahomes, who has passed for at least 318 yards in five straight games.
Saints QB Drew Brees ranks No. 3 in quarterback rating, but Brees has missed the last month after suffering 11 broken ribs and a collapsed lung against the 49ers in Week 10. However, Brees is expected to be ready and start against the Chiefs.
“Drew’s the guy and if he says he can go then he’s gonna go,” quarterback Taysom Hill told Pro Football Talk after Sunday’s Week 13 win over the Falcons.
In Brees’ absence, the Saints have relied more on their strength along the line of scrimmage. The Saints defense has held five straight opponents to 16 points or less, and the run defense is No. 2 in the league, allowing just 76 rushing yards per game at 3.3 yards per rush. New Orleans is up to No. 7 in the league in rushing offense (140/game), but over the past three games the Saints have averaged 200 per game on 38.7 rushing attempts per contest. Hill has averaged 58 rushing yards per game, but two of his three starts were against the Falcons’ bottom-tier defense. He passed for 465 yards in those two contests.
Can the Saints slow the Chiefs? Heading into Week 14, the Saints have won nine straight games while the Chiefs have won 22 of their last 23, including the postseason. This Bayou showdown could well be a Super Bowl preview.