Each week, The Lines gives you a glance at movement in betting markets in the NFL. Both sportsbooks and bettors are starting to get a good idea of which teams are true contenders to win this year’s Super Bowl and which teams are also-rans as we enter the home-stretch of the season. Here is a look at market movement ahead of Week 12 and an early betting preview of Week 13.
NFL Week 12 market movement
Odds shown here are from FanDuel Sportsbook.
|Matchup||Lookahead line||Current spread||Moneyline|
|Houston at Detroit||Lions -1.5||Texans -3||Texans -161, Lions +141|
|Washington at Dallas||Cowboys -1.5||Cowboys -2.5||Cowboys -140, Washington +120|
|Arizona at New England||Cardinals -2.5||Cardinals -1||Cardinals -125, Patriots +105|
|Carolina at Minnesota||Vikings -3.5||Vikings -3||Vikings -146, Panthers +126|
|Cleveland at Jacksonville||Browns -6||Browns -7.5||Browns -330, Jaguars +280|
|Las Vegas at Atlanta||Raiders -3||Raiders -3.5||Raiders -183, Falcons +163|
|LA Chargers at Buffalo||Bills -5||Bills -4.5||Bills -215, Chargers +185|
|Miami at New York Jets||Dolphins -7||Dolphins -7.5||Dolphins -360, Jets +290|
|New York Giants at Cincinnati||Bengals -2.5||Giants -6.5||Giants -280, Bengals +235|
|Tennessee at Indianapolis||Colts -3.5||Colts -3||Colts -145, Titans +125|
|New Orleans at Denver||Saints -6.5||Saints -17||Saints -1600, Broncos +890|
|San Francisco at LA Rams||Rams -7||Rams -5||Rams -220, 49ers +190|
|Kansas City at Tampa Bay||Chiefs -2.5||Chiefs -3.5||Chiefs -170, Buccaneers +150|
|Chicago at Green Bay||Packers -7||Packers -7.5||Packers -385, Bears +315|
|Seattle at Philadelphia||Seahawks -4.5||Seahawks -5.5||Seahawks -275, Eagles +225|
|Baltimore at Pittsburgh||Steelers -2.5||Steelers -9||Steelers -430, Ravens +340|
The biggest Week 12 market moves and adjustments from last week’s lookahead lines include:
- NY Giants at Cincinnati: Bengals from -2.5 to () home underdog vs. Giants
- Baltimore at Pittsburgh: Steelers from -2.5 to () vs. Ravens
- Chicago at Green Bay: Packers from -7 to () vs. Bears
- Kansas City at Tampa Bay: Chiefs from -2.5 to () on road against Buccaneers
The significant swing in the Bengals line from home favorite to a touchdown underdog is injury-related with QB Joe Burrow lost for the season last week with a torn ACL and MCL. Ryan Finley struggled in relief, and Cincy will now start Brandon Allen at quarterback. Allen averaged 4.9 yards per pass play in three starts with Denver last season, but the bigger issue is the Bengals offensive line that ranks No. 27 in pass blocking efficiency. Monitor other injuries, coronavirus concerns and note the difference in the current Week 12 odds as they fluctuate. Both DraftKings and FanDuel sportsbooks have the Giants -6.
The Steelers and Ravens game was moved from Thanksgiving night, to Sunday afternoon, to now Tuesday night with significant coronavirus cases hitting the Ravens – including quarterback Lamar Jackson. The line moved up to Steelers -5.5 in anticipation of many players being out for Baltimore, but most sportsbooks have taken down their odds with it still unknown if the game will actually be played. The undefeated Steelers (10-0) are in control of the AFC North while the Ravens (6-4) would be out of the expanded playoffs if they started this week.
The big late afternoon contest on Sunday is the interconference clash between the Chiefs (9-1) and Buccaneers (7-4) in Tampa Bay. It’s the AFC’s No. 1 offense of Kansas City (414 yards per game at 6.3 yards per play) vs. the NFC’s No. 3 defense of Tampa Bay (310 yards at 5.0 yards per play) after the Bucs allowed the Rams 413 yards in a Monday Night Football 27-24 home loss this past week.
The Titans and Colts have an AFC South first place showdown in Indianapolis with both teams 7-3. The Colts hold the tiebreaker with their 34-17 Week 10 win over the Titans. The Colts current odds to win the division are -182 while the Titans are +125 at DraftKings Sportsbook.
The most popular teams and Week 12 spread bets as of Friday at FanDuel Sportsbook are:
- Cardinals 90% of bets and 91% of money (handle) over Patriots
- Browns 87% of bets and 90% of money over Jaguars
- Raiders 87% of bets and 82% of money over Falcons
- Dolphins 89% of bets and 91% of money over Jets
- Giants 93% of bets and 93% of money over Bengals
- Steelers 80% of bets and 90% of money over Ravens
- Chiefs 91% of bets and 86% of money over Buccaneers
- Seahawks 94% of bets and 91 of money over Eagles
NFL Week 13 lines
NFL Week 13 lookahead odds from FanDuel Sportsbook.
|Game||Lookahead line||Current spread||Moneyline|
|Cincinnati at Miami||Dolphins -9.5||Dolphins -10.5||Dolphins -560, Bengals +440|
|Cleveland at Tennessee||Titans -3||Titans -4||Titans -210, Browns +180|
|Detroit at Chicago||Bears -3||Bears -3||Bears -155, Lions +135|
|Indianapolis at Houston||Colts -3||Colts -3.5||Colts -178, Texans +158|
|Jacksonville at Minnesota||Vikings -8.5||Vikings -10.5||Vikings -470, Jaguars +380|
|Las Vegas at New York Jets||Raiders -8||Raiders -7.5||Raiders -360, Jets +290|
|New Orleans at Atlanta||Saints -3.5||Saints -2.5||Saints -143, Falcons +123|
|LA Rams at Arizona||Rams -2||Rams -2.5||Rams -145, Cardinals +125|
|New York Giants at Seattle||Seahawks -7.5||Seahawks -11||Seahawks -625, Giants +485|
|New England at LA Chargers||Chargers -2.5||Chargers -2||Chargers -130, Patriots +110|
|Philadelphia at Green Bay||Packers -7.5||Packers -8||Packers -415, Eagles +335|
|Denver at Kansas City||Chiefs -13||Chiefs -13||Chiefs -750, Broncos +550|
|Washington at Pittsburgh||Steelers -10.5||Steelers -5.5||Steelers -257, Washington +217|
|Buffalo at San Francisco||Bills -2.5||49ers -1.5||49ers -118, Bills +100|
|Dallas at Baltimore||Ravens -7||Ravens -7.5||Ravens -370, Cowboys +295|
Week 13 betting breakdown
Some key Week 13 games between playoff contending teams that should generate sizable betting action include:
Cleveland (+3) at Tennessee (-3): How many years have Browns fans waited for their team to be in the playoff chase in December? The Browns have posted only two winning seasons and one playoff appearance (2002) since returning to the NFL. Both teams are 7-3 heading into Week 12 and the Browns play at Jacksonville while the Titans play for first place against the Colts in the AFC South. Both the Browns and Titans rely more heavily on their running game with each ranking top 5 in rushing yards at just over 150 per game and rushing attempts per game (31 to 32).
LA Rams (-2) at Arizona (+2): There is much to settle down the stretch in the NFC West. The Rams (7-3) are currently on top of the division with the tiebreaker over the Seahawks (7-3), and the Cardinals (6-4) can make their case for being the division’s top team with a win at New England and then a home ‘Dog win over the Rams. Containing QB Kyler Murray as a runner (619 rush yards, 10 TDs) is key to slowing the Cardinals offense, and the Rams have a top-5 run defense. Los Angeles boasts a strong defensive line and leads the league in total defense (292 yards per game and 4.7 yards per play) and is No. 2 in the NFC in sacks. The Cardinals defense has been inconsistent, and has allowed at least 28 points in their last four games heading into Week 12. The Rams offense has generated at least 410 yards offense in five of their six road games this season. The Cardinals and Rams will meet again in Week 17.