The Recency Report: NFL Week 11 Market Moves And Week 12 Lookahead Lines

Posted By FairwayJay on November 21, 2020 - Last Updated on November 22, 2020
lookahead lines NFL Week 12

Each week, The Lines gives you a look at movement in betting markets in the NFL. Both sportsbooks and bettors are starting to get a good idea of which teams are true contenders to win this year’s Super Bowl and which teams are also-rans as we enter the push for the playoffs. Here is a look at market movement ahead of Week 11 and an early betting preview of Week 12.

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NFL Week 11 market movement

Odds shown here are from FanDuel Sportsbook.

Game Lookahead LineCurrent Spread
Arizona at SeattleSEA -5.5SEA -3
Atlanta at New OrleansNO -6.5NO -3.5
Cincinnati at WashingtonCIN -1WAS -1.5
Detroit at CarolinaCAR -2.5DET -2.5
New England at Houston HOU -2.5NE -1.5
Philadelphia at ClevelandCLE -1.5CLE -2.5
Pittsburgh at JacksonvillePIT -9.5PIT -10.5
Tennessee at Baltimore BAL -6.5BAL -6.5
Miami at DenverMIA -1.5MIA -3.5
NY Jets at LA ChargersLAC -10LAC -9.5
Dallas at MinnesotaMIN -8.5MIN -7
Green Bay at IndianapolisGB -1.5IND -1.5
Kansas City at Las VegasKC -7KC -8
LA Rams at Tampa BayTB -3.5TB -4

The biggest Week 11 market moves and adjustments from last week’s lookahead lines include:

  • Cincinnati at Washington: Bengals from -1 to () at Washington
  • Detroit at Carolina: Lions from +2.5 to (-2.5) at Carolina
  • Atlanta at New Orleans: Saints from -6.5 to () vs Falcons
  • New England at Houston: Patriots from +2.5 to () at Houston
  • Miami at Denver: Dolphins from -1.5 to () at Denver

The significant swing in the Lions and Panthers contest is due to injuries as both teams may be without starting quarterbacks, running backs and other key players. Monitor the injuries, coronavirus concerns and note the difference in the current Week 11 odds as they fluctuate. DraftKings and FanDuel sportsbooks still had the Lions favored as of Saturday morning. The movement in the Saints vs. Falcons game is due to the injury to Drew Brees and the Saints’ decision to start Taysom Hill at quarterback.

Two primetime games feature top teams and playoff contenders. Sunday night in Las Vegas, the Raiders (6-3) host the Chiefs (8-1) and Kansas City enters off its bye week. The Raiders handed the Chiefs their only loss back in Week 5 in a 40-32 upset as 11-point underdogs. The line has moved up from the -7 opener to () in the rematch with Raiders injury and COVID-19 concerns. While it looks like the Raiders will get several defensive players back, both defensive end Clelin Ferrell and linebacker Cory Littleton – who was put on the COVID-19 list last week – will likely miss the contest. Key for the Raiders success is its running game, which averages 31.3 rushing attempts per game and 139 rushing yards per game to rank among the league leaders. Running backs Josh Jacobs and Devontae Booker combined for 139 rushing yards in the Week 5 win over Kansas City. The Chiefs offense leads the AFC with 409 yards per game led by new MVP favorite, QB Patrick Mahomes. The Chiefs are the current favorite to win the Super Bowl ahead of the undefeated Steelers, as those two battle for the No. 1 seed in the AFC with only one team getting a first round bye in the new playoff format.

The Monday Night Football marquee match-up is the Rams (6-3) and Buccaneers (7-3) at Tampa Bay. Two elite defenses meet, with the Rams allowing 296 yards per game and a league-low 4.8 yards per play – including just 252 yards per game over their last three contests. The Bucs defense is No. 2 in the league in sacks and allows 300 yards per game at 4.9 yards per play. Rams contests have gone Under the total in six straight games, and right now the total for this one sits at ().

The most popular teams and spread bets at DraftKings Sportsbook in Week 11 are:

  • Bengals 73% of bets and 79% of money (handle) over Washington
  • Patriots 79% of bets and 89% of money over Texans
  • Titans 74% of bets and 79% of money over Ravens
  • Dolphins 94% of bets and 97% of money over Broncos
  • Packers 81% of bets and 83% of money over Colts 
  • Chiefs 70% of bets and 84% of money over Raiders

NFL Week 12 lines

NFL Week 12 odds from FanDuel Sportsbook.

MatchupLookahead lineCurrent spreadMoneyline
Houston at DetroitLions -1.5Texans -3Texans -161, Lions +141
Washington at DallasCowboys -1.5Cowboys -2.5Cowboys -140, Washington +120
Arizona at New EnglandCardinals -2.5Cardinals -1Cardinals -125, Patriots +105
Carolina at MinnesotaVikings -3.5Vikings -3Vikings -146, Panthers +126
Cleveland at JacksonvilleBrowns -6Browns -7.5Browns -330, Jaguars +280
Las Vegas at AtlantaRaiders -3Raiders -3.5Raiders -183, Falcons +163
LA Chargers at BuffaloBills -5Bills -4.5Bills -215, Chargers +185
Miami at New York JetsDolphins -7Dolphins -7.5Dolphins -360, Jets +290
New York Giants at CincinnatiBengals -2.5Giants -6.5Giants -280, Bengals +235
Tennessee at IndianapolisColts -3.5Colts -3Colts -145, Titans +125
New Orleans at DenverSaints -6.5Saints -17Saints -1600, Broncos +890
San Francisco at LA RamsRams -7Rams -5Rams -220, 49ers +190
Kansas City at Tampa BayChiefs -2.5Chiefs -3.5Chiefs -170, Buccaneers +150
Chicago at Green BayPackers -7Packers -7.5Packers -385, Bears +315
Seattle at PhiladelphiaSeahawks -4.5Seahawks -5.5Seahawks -275, Eagles +225
Baltimore at PittsburghSteelers -2.5Steelers -9Steelers -430, Ravens +340

Week 12 betting breakdown

Some key Week 12 games between top teams that should generate major betting action include:

Baltimore at Pittsburgh () A rematch of the Week 8 division duel which the Steelers won 28-24 as a 4-point underdog. But the Ravens were on the wrong end of a 4-1 turnover margin and Baltimore out-gained Pittsburgh 457 to 221. The preseason AFC North favorite Ravens (6-3) are now shooting for a wild card with the undefeated Steelers (9-0) in control of the division and trying to hold off the Chiefs for the No. 1 playoff seed and a first round bye in the AFC playoffs.

Tennessee at Indianapolis (): The Titans (6-3) and Colts (6-3) are tied for the AFC South lead heading into Week 11, so this will be a key first place showdown. The Colts buried the Titans 34-17 on Thursday night in Week 10 and outscored Tennessee 21-0 in the second half. These two teams beat each other last year with each picking up road wins. Following this division duel, the Colts play just two teams with winning records the rest of the way – on the road at Las Vegas and at Pittsburgh. The Titans final five games also feature only two teams with winning records as they’ll be home versus Cleveland after the Colts rematch and at Green Bay in Week 16.

Kansas City () at Tampa Bay: A potential Super Bowl preview? The AFC’s No. 1 offense against the NFC’s No. 2 defense in total yards. Both the Chiefs (8-1) and Buccaneers (7-3) will enter off key primetime games with the Bucs fresh off a Monday night contest at home. It’ll be six-time Super Bowl champion QB Tom Brady and his trio of top wide receivers against the defending Super Bowl champs in Kansas City and MVP quarterback Patrick Mahomes – with his arsenal of dangerous receivers and weapons. It will most certainly be one of the most watched and most wagered-on games of the season.

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FairwayJay

FairwayJay is a leading national sports and gaming analyst and is recognized as one of the sports industry's most insightful professionals. Jay has pursued his passions and maintained a pulse on the sports, gaming and poker industries while living in Las Vegas for nearly two decades. He's been a regular featured guest on sports and gaming radio shows, podcasts and produces sports betting and related industry articles and content for various sites and sources.

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