The Recency Report: NFL Week 10 Market Moves And Week 11 Lookahead Lines

Posted By FairwayJay on November 14, 2020
lookahead lines NFL Week 11

Each week, The Lines gives you a glance at movement in betting markets in the NFL. Both sportsbooks and bettors are starting to get a good idea of which teams are true contenders and which teams are also-rans as we enter the second half of the season and the push for the playoffs. Here is a look at market movement ahead of Week 10 and an early betting preview of Week 11.

NFL Week 10 market movement

GameLookahead lineCurrent spread
Indianapolis at TennesseeTEN -1IND -1
Cincinnati at PittsburghPIT -10.5PIT -6.5
Houston at ClevelandCLE -2.5CLE -4.5
Jacksonville at Green BayGB -13.5GB -14
Philadelphia at NY GiantsPHI -3PHI -4.5
Tampa Bay at CarolinaTB -6.5TB -5.5
Washington at DetroitDET -4DET -3
Buffalo at ArizonaARI -2.5ARI -2.5
Denver at Las VegasLV -4LV -3.5
LA Chargers at MiamiMIA -1.5MIA -1.5
San Francisco at New OrleansNO -10NO -9.5
Seattle at LA RamsLAR -1LAR -2.5
Baltimore at New EnglandBAL -6.5BAL -6.5
Minnesota at ChicagoCHI -1.5MIN -3.5

The biggest Week 10 market moves and adjustments from last week’s lookahead lines include:

  • Cincinnati at Pittsburgh: Steelers from -10.5 to vs Bengals
  • Houston at Cleveland: Browns from -2.5 to
  • Seattle at Los Angeles: Rams from -1 to
  • Minnesota at Chicago: Bears from -1.5 to a underdog on Monday night

Rain and dangerous wind conditions near 30 MPH in Cleveland has caused the Over/Under to drop from 54 to 46 and even 45.5 at FanDuel Sportsbook for Sunday’s Browns (5-3) and Texans (2-6) contest. In-play bettors should have fun watching and wagering on this game. Cleveland enters off a bye, but the Browns’ last home game Nov. 1 was a very windy one as well. Cleveland and Las Vegas combined for just 532 yards offense in the Raiders’ 16-6 win.

Steelers QB Ben Roethlisberger was removed from the COVID-19 list Saturday morning and is expected to start Sunday against the Bengals (2-5-1). Pittsburgh (8-0) remains the only undefeated team in the NFL, and the adjusted line was initially due to concerns Roethlisberger would not play. William Hill moved the Steelers back up to -7.5. Pittsburgh is currently -400 to win the AFC North with a 2-game lead over the Ravens.

Bears head coach Matt Nagy has turned over offensive play-calling duties to coordinator Bill Lazor ahead of Monday night’s NFC North game versus the Vikings. Chicago is now up to a 3-point underdog in the biggest line adjustment of the week. The Bears have some injuries along both sides of the line of scrimmage, and center Cody Whitehair and RB David Montgomery are both doubtful. The Bears offense is struggling, ranking No. 29 in the league – averaging 317 yards per game with an offensive line that ranks No. 29 in pass blocking efficiency. Bettors don’t like the Bears inept offense, but Chicago’s defense is top-tier and played arguably its best game of the season in last week’s 24-17 loss at Tennessee. The Bears boast a dynamic duo at linebacker, and leading tackler Roquan Smith (questionable this week) had 11 tackles, 1 sack and 2 tackles for loss as the Bears defense held leading rusher Derrick Henry to 68 rushing yards on 21 carries and the Titans offense to just 228 yards at 4.1 yards per play – the lowest of any team in Week 9. The Bears now try to slow Vikings RB Dalvin Cook. He’s No. 2 in the league in rushing and has broken a league-high 41 tackles across rushing and receiving while scoring a league-high 13 touchdowns. Cook had 206 of the Vikings 275 rushing yards last week in a 34-20 victory over the Lions. Regardless of the result Monday night, the Bears (5-4) as a 3-point home underdog to the Vikings (3-5) is one of the most interesting line adjustments of the week. Since Mike Zimmer became the head coach, Minnesota is 2-18-1 outdoors against a team with a winning record and 5-15-1 ATS in those games.

The most popular teams and spread bets at DraftKings Sportsbook in Week 10 are:

  • Browns 66% of bets and 88% of money (handle) over Texans
  • Dolphins 75% of the bets and 84% of the money over Chargers
  • Eagles 53% of bets and 82% of money over Giants
  • Seahawks 86% of bets and 79% of money over Rams
  • Packers 75% of bets and 76% of money over Jaguars
  • Raiders 70% of bets and 74% of money over Broncos
  • Buccaneers 66% of bets and 69% of money over Panthers
  • Bills 79% of bets and 68% of money over Cardinals
  • Saints 76% of bets and 66% of money over 49ers

ALSO READ: Best Sportsbook Promos, Odds Boosts For Week 10

NFL Week 11 market movement

NFL Week 11 odds from FanDuel Sportsbook.

MatchupLookahead lineCurrent spread
Arizona at SeattleSEA -5.5SEA -3
Atlanta at New OrleansNO -6.5NO -3.5
Cincinnati at WashingtonCIN -1WAS -2
Detroit at Carolina CAR -2.5DET -3
New England at HoustonHOU -2.5NE -2.5
Philadelphia at ClevelandCLE -1.5CLE -2.5
Pittsburgh at JacksonvillePIT -9.5PIT -11
Tennessee at BaltimoreBAL -6.5BAL -6
Miami at Denver MIA -1.5MIA -4
NY Jets at LA ChargersLAC -10LAC -10
Dallas at MinnesotaMIN -8.5MIN -7
Green Bay at IndianapolisGB -1.5IND -1.5
Kansas City at Las VegasKC -7KC -7.5
LA Rams at Tampa BayTB -3.5TB -4.5

Week 11 betting breakdown

Some key Week 11 games between top teams that should generate major betting action include:

Arizona () at Seattle (): The strongest division in pro football could get tighter prior to this rematch in the NFC West. The Rams (5-3) host the division leading Seahawks (6-2) in Week 10 prior to the Cardinals (5-3) traveling to Seattle.  A win by the Cardinals would give them a season sweep after the Arizona won in overtime 37-34 in Week 7 with 10 points in the final 2:30 before the extra session victory. The two teams combined for nearly 1,100 yards offense, and this total may reach a season high near 60. Seattle is 4-0 at home with total scoring of 64, 53, 69 and 65 points in those games. Both teams are 5-3 ATS.

Tennessee () at Baltimore (): It’s a rematch of last year’s AFC Divisional round upset by the Titans, when Tennessee pulled the shocking 28-12 road win as 10-point underdog. The Ravens will be a popular bet in this Week 11 tilt – especially in teasers if the line opens at this number or less than -9 early next week. The Titans 34-17 loss to the Colts on Thursday Night Football leaves them 6-3 while the Ravens (6-2) will return from New England and a Sunday Night Football showdown with the Patriots. The Ravens defense allows 325 yards per game and 5.1 yards per play compared to the Titans 398 yards per game and 5.8 yards per play, as the Colts rolled the Titans for 430 yards and 6.2 yards per play.

Kansas City () at Las Vegas (): The Chiefs (8-1) only loss this season was to the Raiders (5-3). The 40-32 shootout in Week 5 was no fluke as Las Vegas rolled up 490 yards offense and surpassed their season rushing average (131) with 144 against the Chiefs. The advance line on this game last month at William Hill was Chiefs -9. This total will be in the high 50s and Raiders games are 6-1-1 to the Over this season. The Chiefs (31.8 PPG) are No. 2 in league scoring.

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FairwayJay

FairwayJay is a leading national sports and gaming analyst and is recognized as one of the sports industry's most insightful professionals. Jay has pursued his passions and maintained a pulse on the sports, gaming and poker industries while living in Las Vegas for nearly two decades. He's been a regular featured guest on sports and gaming radio shows, podcasts and produces sports betting and related industry articles and content for various sites and sources.

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