The Recency Report: NFL Week 9 Market Moves And Week 10 Lookahead Lines

Posted By FairwayJay on November 6, 2020

Each week, The Lines gives you a glance at movement in betting markets in the NFL. Both sportsbooks and bettors are starting to get a good feel of which teams are true contenders and which teams are also-rans as we move towards the second half of the season and the push for the playoffs. Here is a look at market movement ahead of Week 9 and an early betting preview of Week 10.

NFL Week 9 market movement

MatchupLookahead lineCurrent line (Nov. 8)
Green Bay at San Francisco49ers -1Packers -7.5
Baltimore at IndianapolisRavens -4Ravens -1.5
Carolina at Kansas CityChiefs -10Chiefs -9.5
Chicago at TennesseeTitans -6.5Titans -6.5
Denver at AtlantaFalcons -4Falcons -4.5
Detroit at MinnesotaVikings -2Vikings -4
Houston at JacksonvilleTexans -4Texans -6.5
New York Giants at WashingtonWashington -3.5Washington -3
Seattle at BuffaloSeahawks -1.5Seahawks -3
Miami at ArizonaCardinals -6Cardinals -5.5
Las Vegas at LA ChargersChargers -1.5Chargers -1.5
Pittsburgh at DallasSteelers -9.5Steelers -14.5
New Orleans at Tampa BayBuccaneers -4.5Buccaneers -4.5
New England at New York JetsPatriots -7Patriots -9.5

The biggest Week 9 market moves and adjustments from last week’s lookahead lines included the Thursday night football game between the Green Bay Packers and San Francisco 49ers. The adjustment was significant on the Packers, who were plus one (+1) on the lookahead line, are up to a 7-point road favorite at FanDuel Sportsbook and -7.5 at DraftKings Sportsbook.

The Packers were a 4-point favorite at DraftKings on Monday as lines were released with a total of 50.5. As the laundry list of injuries that hit the 49ers were announced, the line moved sharply to Packers -7 and the total dropped to 48.5. As we saw, that movement was warranted with the Packers wiping the floor with San Fran on Thursday night.

Other line moves of note include:

The most popular teams and spread bets at FanDuel Sportsbook in Week 9 as of Friday morning:

  • Ravens 83% of bets and 88% of money (handle) over Colts
  • Texans 87% of bets and 81% of money over Jaguars
  • Seahawks 89% of bets and 82% of money over Bills
  • Steelers 95% of bets and 99% of money over Cowboys
  • Patriots 87% of bets and 94% of money over Jets (Monday)
  • Raiders 84% of money over Chargers
  • Giants 85% of money over Washington

Totals

  • NY Giants vs Washington Football Team: Total up one point to 42.5
  • Bills vs Seahawks: Total down one point to 54
  • Colts vs Ravens: Total up two points to 47
  • Chargers vs Raiders: Total down two points to 51.5
  • Cardinals vs Dolphins: Total up one point to 48.5
  • Buccaneers vs Saints: Total down 1.5 points to 50.5

Totals went 7-7 over/under in Week 8 with some significant downward moves due to stronger winds in a number of cities and locations. Scoring averaged 48.1 points per game in Week 8. For the season, scoring is averaging 50.33 points per game.

NFL Week 10 lines

GameLookahead lineCurrent spread
Indianapolis at TennesseeTEN -1IND -1
Cincinnati at PittsburghPIT -10.5PIT -6.5
Houston at ClevelandCLE -2.5CLE -4.5
Jacksonville at Green BayGB -13.5GB -14
Philadelphia at NY GiantsPHI -3PHI -4.5
Tampa Bay at CarolinaTB -6.5TB -5.5
Washington at DetroitDET -4DET -3
Buffalo at ArizonaARI -2.5ARI -2.5
Denver at Las VegasLV -4LV -3.5
LA Chargers at MiamiMIA -1.5MIA -1.5
San Francisco at New OrleansNO -10NO -9.5
Seattle at LA RamsLAR -1LAR -2.5
Baltimore at New EnglandBAL -6.5BAL -6.5
Minnesota at ChicagoCHI -1.5MIN -3.5

Week 10 betting breakdown

Some key Week 10 games between top teams that should generate major betting action include:

Indianapolis at Tennessee:

The Titans (-1) are a slight home favorite on the lookahead line and this key Thursday night game will be for first place in the AFC South as both teams enter Week 9 at 5-2. This will be just the second division game of the season for the Colts, who lost at Jacksonville in Week 1 for the Jaguars only win this season. The Colts last three games entering Week 9 have all gone over the total with at least 55 points scored, and the Titans last four games have gone over with at least 51 points scored. The Titans are 3-1 at home and this game is the start of a crucial four game stretch. After hosting the Colts, Tennessee travels to Baltimore, at Indianapolis again and home to face Cleveland. The Titans are 3-1 at home, and the key matchup is the Titans’ top four rushing game averaging 155 RYPG and 5.1 yards per rush with the NFL’s leading rusher Derrick Henry against the Colts’ top two rush defense allowing 80 rushing yards per game and 3.4 yards per rush; both best in the AFC.

Seattle at Los Angeles Rams

The Rams (-1) are a slight home favorite on the lookahead line and enter off a bye in a key game in the strongest division in pro football. The Seahawks (6-1) remain in first place in the NFC West ahead of the Cardinals (5-2), Rams (5-3) and defending division and NFC Champion 49ers (4-5) into Week 9. The Seahawks are winning with leading league MVP quarterback Russell Wilson, whose 26 passing touchdowns through seven games is one short of the NFL record. The Seahawks offense is averaging 414 yards per game and league-high 6.4 yards per play and 34.3 points per game.

However, Seattle’s defense is poorly coordinated and is allowing a league-worst 460 yards per game. The Rams offense is top 10 in the league and LA’s defense has moved to No. 1 allowing 292 yards per game and 4.7 yards per play; both league-best. The Rams are 3-0 at home and these teams will meet again in Week 16.

FairwayJay Avatar
Written by
FairwayJay

FairwayJay is a leading national sports and gaming analyst and is recognized as one of the sports industry's most insightful professionals. Jay has pursued his passions and maintained a pulse on the sports, gaming and poker industries while living in Las Vegas for nearly two decades. He's been a regular featured guest on sports and gaming radio shows, podcasts and produces sports betting and related industry articles and content for various sites and sources.

View all posts by FairwayJay