Liverpool vs. Real Madrid: 2023 Champions League Round Of 16 Odds, Expected Goals

Written By Dan Tracey on February 21, 2023
champions league odds

The UEFA Champions League Round of 16 continues on Tuesday, Feb. 21 with Leg 1 of Liverpool vs. Real Madrid at Anfield in Liverpool, England. Bettors can catch the broadcast at 3 p.m. ET on various streaming platforms like fuboTV, Paramount+ and Univision. The winner has the edge before the two meet again in the second leg on March 7 in Madrid, Spain. As part of TheLines‘ soccer coverage, let’s take a look at Champions League odds for this match.

Liverpool vs. Real Madrid Champions League Odds

Bettors should be aware during the Champions League knockout rounds that the three-way moneyline is only for 90 minutes plus stoppage time. If you bet on a team to win and the match ends in a draw, your bet loses. It is not a push for a tie.

Liverpool Team Preview

When you consider the pace that Liverpool has motored past teams in the past few years, it is fair to say that the machine is not firing on all cylinders, and with the Merseyside men currently languishing in the Premier League midtable, it is very much Europe or bust.

As Jurgen Klopp’s men find themselves out of the European paying places for next season, the Anfield outfit simply has to go for it within the confines of the Champions League. Not only that, but it may also keep their manager in gainful employment.

Due to the success that Klopp has crafted, the sight of him being asked to leave through the club’s exit doors is almost unfathomable. However, a mutual meeting of minds regarding his departure by the logical conclusion at the end of the season. 

That is unless the German giant can deliver another European crown to his current paymasters. If he is to achieve such a feat, he will have to slay the dragon that has stood in its way in recent years.

The defeat to Real Madrid in last season’s Champions League final is certainly one that still rankles and also is a large reason for Liverpool’s slump during this. If revenge can be exacted and the dragon finally slayed, the road to the 2023 final becomes a lot shorter.

There is no doubt that Liverpool has the personnel to achieve this, it is just that they have all collectively dropped down a level. Now the likes of Mo Salah, Jordan Henderson, and Virgil van Dijk must all find what has made them champions in the past, to aid them against Real. 

Real Madrid Team Preview

If you were asked to name the one team that is synonymous with the Champions League or its European Cup predecessor, the answer would surely be Real Madrid. The Spanish giants have already won the competition 14 times, now they are looking for No. 15.

Although they may not be the favorites for this season’s edition of the competition, there is one thing that you simply do not do when it comes to the Champions League and that is write off Real Madrid.

Nobody gave them much of a chance last season, as they had to deal with the quartet of PSG, Chelsea, Manchester City, and Liverpool in successive rounds. The underdog in each, the victor in them all.

With Karim Benzema reminding everyone how much of a fearsome forward he is, the Frenchman was responsible for some of the highest drama in last season’s competition. Then again, teammate Thibault Courtois was responsible for winning the final.

The Belgian goalkeeper had to deal with an onslaught of Liverpool attack in Paris. Wave after wave came at the 30-year-old and the gargantuan shot-stopper withstood each and every last one of them. 

Now though, Real Madrid is closer to favorites for their pair of clashes with Liverpool and one wonders if this could work against them. Then again, with manager Carlo Ancelotti at the helm, he and his players will be more than ready for the first leg on Tuesday.

Champions League Knockout Rounds Bracket

Since the UCL draws for new matchups after the round of 16, there’s no set bracket for fans to follow just yet.

Liverpool vs. Real Madrid Expected Goals

In a sport where scoring has extremely high variance, opportunities to score and opportunities allowed has become a more respected measure of the quality of a team’s play. Expected goals (xG) measures the quality of a shot based on several factors, including shot type, shot angle and distance from goal. Similarly, expected goals allowed (xGA) measure the quality of a team’s defense. Subtracting expected goals allowed from expected goals equals expected goal differential (xGD) and offers an overall advanced measure of a team.

Borussia Dortmund6176+1112.36.8+5.5

Matchup History

When it comes to the head-to-head history of Liverpool and Real Madrid, it is fair to say that it is rather storied. You only need to go back to last season’s Champions League final for the last skirmish between the two.

A skirmish that saw Real Madrid eventually win the war in Paris and with the 2022 edition of the tournament also ending the same way as it did in 2018, Jurgen Klopp’s men will soon be looking to exact revenge.

While of the eight previous meetings between the two clubs, Liverpool has failed to win any of their last six. The last time the Merseyside men came out on top was back in 2009, as they eventually disposed of Real at this very stage of the competition. Can history repeat itself? 

Borussia Dortmund Vs. Chelsea Champions League Odds: Bets To Consider

Real Madrid Win and Over 2.5 Goals: +310

Although last season’s Champions League final generated just a single goal between Liverpool and Real Madrid, the stakes involved where far greater than what we will witness on Tuesday. 

A cagey affair in Paris should not necessarily be replicated on Merseyside, even if the eventual outcome from last summer is. With Real Madrid in a far greater semblance of recent form, I believe they will extend their unbeaten run over Liverpool to seven matches.

Because in the recent Champions League era, there is no doubt that Liverpool has failed to get the number of Real Madrid, and every time Los Blancos are overlooked, the Spanish giants have a habit of doing the unthinkable.

With that said, victory on English soil should not be considered unthinkable by any stretch of the imagination and when you consider the litany of attacking talent that will be on show for both teams, neither is three or more total goals being scored.

Although Liverpool picked up a hugely important win in the recent Premier League Merseyside derby, their form and their defense in particular have been largely inconsistent these past few weeks.

Something that Real Madrid will surely be aware of and their pre-match preparations will largely be focused on this. However, they will also be focused on the talents of Liverpool’s Mo Salah and the Egyptian is more than capable of adding to the total goalscoring load. 

Match Won By One Goal: +135

While my second bet leans into the logic of the first but also opens up a whole host of other possibilities. If we take a deeper look at the opening offer, for Real Madrid to win and there to be over 2.5 goals, it is going to mean one of at least two scores. 

A 3-0 win for Los Blancos would certainly tick the box in emphatic fashion. However, I cannot see such a capitulation taking place at Anfield – if it did, it might just accelerate Jurgen Klopp’s exit.

At the same time, the score which would be ideal for both the first and second selections is a 2-1 away win. Real’s success is secured in the opening leg, so are the three goals and so is the one-goal margin of victory.

Then again, this bet could be treated as independent of the other. Although it can be good to link two bets together, wider coverage can also split the load if things do not go to plan and this is where the one-goal margin steps in.

If it is simply a 1-0 win for Real Madrid, we would still get a winner here, even if the first pick is blown out of the water. Of course, we can also utilize Liverpool for this wager and if they win by the same score, we at least collect some form of winnings. 

We do not even need to stop there, a 2-1 win for the hosts would be sufficient if not a little more surprising. The same could be said for 3-2 either way. As long as it is a tense affair, this should take the tension out of this Champions League encounter. 

Best of luck navigating Champions League odds.

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