NFL Thanksgiving Betting Preview: Buffalo Bills at Detroit Lions

Written By Eli Hershkovich on November 23, 2022 - Last Updated on November 24, 2022
Bills odds

The Buffalo Bills face off against the Detroit Lions on Thursday, Nov. 24 at 12:30 p.m. ET. This Thanksgiving Day affair, which is the first contest on NFL Week 12 odds board, showcases Lions – Bills odds with a spread of Buffalo and on the moneyline. The total is set at .

In this post, we’ll dive into everything you need to know before placing a bet on Thursday Night Football odds, including matchups, key metrics, and the best available odds.

Lions – Bills Odds: Spread, Moneyline, Over/Under

When using the Lions – Bills odds table above, click the dropdown menu to switch to moneylines or over/unders. 

Betting on the point spread is when you wager on how many points a team will win or lose by. A “plus” sign in front of the spread is the underdog, and a “minus” sign is the favorite. The Bills need to win by 10 points or more if you bet on them against the spread, as they’re priced as an 9.5-point home favorite at most shops. Conversely, a spread bet on the Lions would need Deroit to lose by at most nine points or win outright.

The total is the number of combined points that the two teams will score. Bettors can bet “over” or “under” on how many total points will be scored in the game.

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Lions – Bills: Player Props

In the props tool search bar, type in a team or player and hit enter. You’ll see the various proposition bets offered by leading online sportsbooks. 

This is a valuable tool that allows bettors to compare odds and stats when considering a prop bet. 

Lions – Bills: Betting News

As of Thursday, the Bills have accrued 60% of the spread handle and 54% of the tickets. This data comes from BetMGM Sportsbook, which is trading Buffalo at . Additional updates on the Lions – Bills odds can be found below.

Lions – Bills: Weather Report

This game will be played indoors (Ford Field), so weather will not be a factor.

Lions – Bills: Injury News

Buffalo Injuries

Josh AllenQBElbowQuestionable
Tremaine EdmundsLBGroinQuestionable
Mitch MorseCAnkleQuestionable
Gregory RousseauDEAnkleQuestionable
A.J. EpenesaDEAnkleQuestionable

Detroit Injuries

Jonah JacksonOGIllnessQuestionable
Frank RagnowCFootQuestionable
Jeff OkudahCBConcussionQuestionable
Evan BrownCAnkleQuestionable
Josh ReynoldsWRBackQuestionable
D.J. CharkWRAnkleQuestionable
Jameson WilliamsWRACLQuestionable

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Bills Offense Vs. Lions Defense

Bills OffenseStats (Rank)Lions Defense
28.1 (2)Points/Gm28.2 (32)
0.4 (2)Points/Play0.4 (18)
417.4 (2)Yards/Gm415.9 (32)
283.4 (3)Pass Yards/Gm262.2 (28)
134 (9)Rush Yards/Gm153.7 (31)
6.4 (2)Yards/Play6.4 (32)
7.6 (4)Yards/Pass7.8 (32)
5.3 (3)Yards/Rush5.2 (30)
50% (2)3rd Down %50% (32)
51.3% (23)Red Zone %66.7% (26)
18 (30)Turnovers13 (14)
20 (9)Sacks17 (27)

Lions Offense Vs. Bills Defense

Lions OffenseStats (Rank)Bills Defense
25 (8)Points/Gm17.4 (5)
0.4 (2)Points/Play0.3 (1)
366.6 (6)Yards/Gm327.4 (13)
233.8 (11)Pass Yards/Gm220.8 (20)
132.8 (10)Rush Yards/Gm106.6 (8)
5.9 (6)Yards/Play5.2 (9)
7.1 (8)Yards/Pass6.3 (8)
4.7 (11)Yards/Rush4.3 (10)
40.7% (16)3rd Down %40% (14)
71.1% (5)Red Zone %45.2% (3)
12 (12)Turnovers18 (3)
15 (3)Sacks28 (12)

Lions – Bills: Betting Insights

Why Bills Can Cover The Spread

Unexpectedly, Josh Allen & Co. will play consecutive games in Detroit. They knocked off the Browns in Week 11 after a snow storm forced them away from suiting up in in Highmark Stadium.

Unless the Bills suffer from a letdown spot, they should generate plenty of explosive passing plays against the Lions’ exploitable secondary. Mind you, Buffalo is producing the highest Dropback Success Rate (SR) — even ahead of Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs. Meanwhile, Detroit’s defense, who will likely be without second-year cornerback Jeff Okuah (concussion), is tied for the fourth-highest SR allowed.

For context, a play is successful if teams manufactures:

  • 50 percent of the yards needed to move the chains on first down
  • 70 percent of yards to gain on second down
  • 100 percent of yards to gain on third or fourth down

If you’re interested in trends, Thanksgiving Day favorites are 43-8 outright and 35-16 against the spread since 2004. Buffalo could very well extend that winning percentage on both fronts. Nevertheless, these aren’t “records” that bettors should blindly tail.

Why Lions Can Cover The Spread

Similar to how the Packers wound up covering as double-digit underdogs against the Bills, Dan Campbell’s bunch will need to lean on its ground game. Not only does Buffalo’s defense rank No. 18 in opponent’s Rushing SR, but the Lions surprisingly boast a top-10 run blocking unit.

Campbell’s offense has also tallied the sixth-highest EPA per play with tailback D’Andre Swift active this season, going 6-0-1 ATS in that window.

With that being said, Detroit will have to turn away from that aspect of its offense if it faces a negative game script. That’s where backing the Lions can get dicey. Their pass protection is extremely suspect — on top of the fact that Jared Goff owns the eighth-lowest Completion Percentage Over Expected (CPOE), adjusting for contextual variables that make a pass more or less likely to be completed.

Couple those factors with Buffalo’s above average pressure rate (22.8%), and a double-digit deficit will likely be curtains.

Related: Super Bowl 57 Odds

Final Thoughts

While I won’t have any action on Lions – Bills odds, but be sure to our NFL Week 12 betting guide and teaser piece for two potential Thanksgiving Day bets.

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