AGA: NFL Betting Slows as Prediction Markets Gain Hold

The AGA (American Gaming Association) has issued a stark warning over regulated NFL betting as prediction markets continue to grow.

The AGA has estimated that $29.5 billion will be bet on the upcoming NFL season, starting this week. That figure is for bets made through regulated online sportsbooks but illustrates a flat 0% growth year over year.

While “millions of Americans” are choosing licensed sportsbooks in their states, many others are using prediction markets, the AGA states.

AGA President and CEO Bill Miller said they were “excited” that millions of fans will be keen to place bets on the new NFL season. However, he warned against the growth in “backdoor sports betting” through “so-called” prediction markets.

Sports Bets Now ‘Dominating’ Kalshi Boards

There were a few key takeaways from the AGA’s statement, notably the growth in prediction markets straying into territory usually occupied by sportsbooks.

While licensed online sportsbooks have stayed away from events covering politics and entertainment, no such restrictions apply to prediction markets.

In addition, heavy hitters like Kalshi and Polymarket have been steadily increasing their sports-related markets. Kalshi took over $1 billion in trades on the FIFA World Cup winner market in the summer.

However, prediction markets are adapting their event contracts model to allow traders to buy and sell “outcomes” on the Friday night games or the winner of the next Super Bowl.

The AGA’s Key Concerns: A Snapshot

• Regulated sports betting handle is slowing, the AGA says
• Prediction markets “operating outside the regulatory frameworks” governing sportsbooks
• Increased prediction market use amongst 18 to 20-year-olds, below the legal age of 21 in many states
• Prediction markets “siphoned over $1.3 billion” in state gaming tax since 2025

NFL Slow on the Prediction Market Uptake

The growth of prediction markets this year has been staggering. The public awareness of how prediction markets work has increased. Plus, very public legal battles in the courts and the endorsement of President Trump keep the markets on the front homepages.

However, the NFL is so far immune to the charm of the prediction market exchanges. The NFL’s position is that “troublesome markets” should be curtailed and is worried about insider trading. Despite the anti-prediction market stance, the NFL has some deals with online sportsbooks.

Some markets offered by Kalshi and Polymarket are not found at online sportsbooks. These include novelty “mention markets”, such as what words will be uttered by broadcasters, or celebrity attendees at the Super Bowl.

Some sportsbooks offer prop bets, but not on the scale seen at prediction exchanges. It’s this relaxed attitude to markets that gives prediction sites an edge over more restricted sportsbooks.

NHL, MLB Have No Such Qualms

Kalshi and Polymarket dominate the industry and enjoy federal protection from the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

Despite some very loud and potentially lengthy legal battles, prediction markets continue to increase funding and marketing deals.

Last month, Kalshi publicly signed with five new MLB partners, including the Boston Red Sox.

Over the weekend, basketball star LeBron James became probably the most high-profile sportsman to announce a prediction market tie-up. James dropped a brief video on X announcing a deal with Polymarket.

The NFL continues its fight with the prediction markets. And though a near $30 billion handle for sports betting is impressive, it will certainly be caught up by prediction markets over time.

The decision will have to be made by the NFL whether they come on board and embrace prediction markets or continue to resist.